Weather Patterns

Weather Patterns Welcome to our site. Here you can find and download the data collected by Jippe Hoogeveen. We have split the data in 10 year periods. For each day there is an entry containing the following information (in order of cells):

You can access the data by clicking on the corresponding link. The data have been stored in a set of excel files. We have written a paper on basis of these data titled `Winds are changing: An explanation for the warming of the Netherlands', which as been published in the International Journal of Climatology. The paper is open access, and it can be accessed by clicking here.

The abstract of the paper is:

Western Europe is warming rapidly, much faster than the world average. To explain this phenomenon for the Netherlands, we look at the region where the airflow comes from instead of looking at the wind on the ground. Thereto, we consider 24 so-called weather patterns, which describe the origin of the airflow (north, northeast, etc.) and whether the airflow comes straight at us, or with bending of isobars (cyclonal or anticyclonal). For each day from January 1, 1836 onwards, we have determined the corresponding weather pattern on basis of the weather maps from Reanalysis archives at wettercentrale.de. Using a statistical test, we can see that a shift has occurred in the weather patterns, which has resulted in a significant increase in airflow coming from warmer directions. We further have applied linear regression to explain the daily average temperatures on basis of the weather patterns for the period 1961--2020. In this way, we find for the daily model an R2 value of 0.60 and for the yearly model, based on the aggregated average daily values, we find an R2 of 0.81, which is increased to 0.85 when we take the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) into account. These values strongly suggest that the warming in the Netherlands is caused by a shift in the origin of the airflow to warmer directions.

1836-1840 1841-1850 1851-1860 1861-1870 1871-1880
1881-1890 1891-1900 1901-1910 1911-1920 1921-1930
1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980
1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
Weather Patterns 1836-2020 (and counting)

Response to research by KNMI on basis of our data

Some researchers from KNMI have used our data to determine the effect of the shift of the weather patterns. Their report can be found here (in Dutch). Their main conclusion is that the shift of the weather patterns has caused additional warming, but the amount of warming that they find is much smaller than the amount that we find. They do not explain the remainder of the warming.

In this document we respond to their research (in Dutch). We leave the conclusions to the reader.