Author name code: mikic ADS astronomy entries on 2022-09-14 author:"Mikic, Zoran" ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Title: The role of asymmetries in coronal rain formation during thermal non-equilibrium cycles Authors: Pelouze, Gabriel; Auchère, Frédéric; Bocchialini, Karine; Froment, Clara; Mikić, Zoran; Soubrié, Elie; Voyeux, Alfred Bibcode: 2022A&A...658A..71P Altcode: 2021arXiv211009975P Context. Thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) produces several observables that can be used to constrain the spatial and temporal distribution of solar coronal heating. Its manifestations include prominence formation, coronal rain, and long-period intensity pulsations in coronal loops. The recent observation of abundant periodic coronal rain associated with intensity pulsations allowed for these two phenomena to be unified as the result of TNE condensation and evaporation cycles. On the other hand, many observed intensity pulsation events show little to no coronal rain formation.
Aims: Our goal is to understand why some TNE cycles produce such abundant coronal rain, while others produce little to no rain.
Methods: We reconstructed the geometry of the periodic coronal rain event, using images from the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI) onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), and magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We then performed 1D hydrodynamic simulations of this event for different heating parameters and variations of the loop geometry (9000 simulations in total). We compared the resulting behaviour to simulations of TNE cycles that do not produce coronal rain.
Results: Our simulations show that both prominences and TNE cycles (with and without coronal rain) can form within the same magnetic structure. We show that the formation of coronal rain during TNE cycles depends on the asymmetry of the loop and of the heating. Asymmetric loops are overall less likely to produce coronal rain, regardless of the heating. In symmetric loops, coronal rain forms when the heating is also symmetric. In asymmetric loops, rain forms only when the heating compensates for the asymmetry.

Movie associated to Fig. 5 is available at https://www.aanda.org Title: Necessary Conditions for a Hot Quiet Sun Atmosphere: Chromospheric Flares and Low Corona Twisted Flux Rope Eruptions Authors: Amari, Tahar; Luciani, Jean-Francois; Aly, Jean-Jacques; Canou, Aurelien; Mikic, Zoran; Velli, Marco Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH12B..05A Altcode: The issue of relevant scales involved in the heating of the solar atmosphere is an important one. Since the temperature already reaches 1 MK a few megameters above the photosphere, observations made by Parker Solar Probe will be able to explore those at larger heights but only indirectly at those lower heights, where small scale coupling between sub-photospheric, chromospheric and coronal structure and dynamics occurs. While Solar Orbiter will be able to bring such observations, modeling appears a complementary interesting approach to interpret those observations Taking a sub-surface dynamo and a sharp realistic VAL- like scale profile from photosphere to corona, with a fixed temperature profile in time, we investigate the necessary conditions implied on the structures and dynamics of the atmosphere to keep this thermal structuration, as well as their implication in the energy budget of the atmosphere. Under those hypothesis we show that :i) the transverse photospheric field below 100km plays a major role; ii) an associated scale of one megameter activity naturally results to produce a zone above the photosphere with high confined electric currents, which then expands into the chromosphere and releases energy(4 500 W/m2) through small-scale eruptions driving sonic motions; iii) meso scale structuration, leads to the formation of larger coherent twisted flux ropes, and associated eruptive like activity in a way similar to large scale eruptive phenomena, as result of cancellation, emergence, and convergence motions. Finally a wave dynamics is also naturally driven in core corona associated to above 300 W/m2. Title: Reproducibility package for running the DIFFUSE test cases from "Can Fortran's `do concurrent` replace directives for accelerated computing" Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Caplan, Ronald M.; Linker, Jon A.; Stulajter, Miko Bibcode: 2021zndo...5253520M Altcode: Reproducibility package for the paper "Can Fortran's `do concurrent` replace directives for accelerated computing?". The package contains the three singularity containers (for gfortran, nvfortran, and ifort) used, as well as all code versions, compiler options, and test cases. The package requires minimal customization (only specifying hardware-specific compiler options) of the main script, which can then be used to automatically run either all, or a subset, of runs from the paper. See the documentation in the package for more details. A reference solution is also provided for validation. Note that runs using GPU-acceleration require having an NVIDIA GPU with compatible drivers installed on the system. Title: Variations in Finite-difference Potential Fields Authors: Caplan, Ronald M.; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2021ApJ...915...44C Altcode: 2021arXiv210205618C The potential field (PF) solution of the solar corona is a vital modeling tool for a wide range of applications, including minimum energy estimates, coronal magnetic field modeling, and empirical solar wind solutions. Given its popularity, it is important to understand how choices made in computing a PF may influence key properties of the solution. Here we study PF solutions for the global coronal magnetic field on 2012 June 13, computed with our high-performance finite-difference code POT3D. Solutions are analyzed for their global properties and locally around NOAA AR 11504, using the net open flux, open-field boundaries, total magnetic energy, and magnetic structure as metrics. We explore how PF solutions depend on (1) the data source, type, and processing of the inner boundary conditions; (2) the choice of the outer boundary condition height and type; and (3) the numerical resolution and spatial scale of information at the lower boundary. We discuss the various qualitative and quantitative differences that naturally arise by using different maps as input, and we illustrate how coronal morphology and open flux depend most strongly on the outer boundary condition. We also show how large-scale morphologies and the open magnetic flux are remarkably insensitive to model resolution, while the surface mapping and embedded magnetic complexity vary considerably. This establishes important context for past, current, and future applications of the PF for coronal and solar wind modeling. Title: Slip-back Mapping as a Tracker of Topological Changes in Evolving Magnetic Configurations Authors: Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2020ApJ...891...14L Altcode: 2019arXiv190501384L The topology of the coronal magnetic field has a strong impact on the properties of the solar corona and presumably on the origin of the slow solar wind. To advance our understanding of this impact, we revisit the concept of so-called slip-back mapping and adapt it to determine open, closed, and disconnected flux systems that are formed in the solar corona by magnetic reconnection during a given time interval. In particular, the method we developed allows us to describe magnetic flux transfer between open and closed flux regions via so-called interchange reconnection with an unprecedented level of detail. We illustrate the application of this method to the analysis of the global MHD evolution of the solar corona driven by idealized differential rotation of the photospheric plasma. Title: Exploring Plasma Heating in the Current Sheet Region in a Three-dimensional Coronal Mass Ejection Simulation Authors: Reeves, Katharine K.; Török, Tibor; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Murphy, Nicholas A. Bibcode: 2019ApJ...887..103R Altcode: 2019arXiv191005386R We simulate a coronal mass ejection using a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. The magnetic flux distribution at 1 R s is produced by a localized subsurface dipole superimposed on a global dipole field, mimicking the presence of an active region within the global corona. Transverse electric fields are applied near the polarity inversion line to introduce a transverse magnetic field, followed by the imposition of a converging flow to form and destabilize a flux rope, producing an eruption. We examine the quantities responsible for plasma heating and cooling during the eruption, including thermal conduction, radiation, adiabatic effects, coronal heating, and ohmic heating. We find that ohmic heating is an important contributor to hot temperatures in the current sheet region early in the eruption, but in the late phase, adiabatic compression plays an important role in heating the plasma there. Thermal conduction also plays an important role in the transport of thermal energy away from the current sheet region throughout the reconnection process, producing a “thermal halo” and widening the region of high temperatures. We simulate emission from solar telescopes for this eruption and find that there is evidence for emission from heated plasma above the flare loops late in the eruption, when the adiabatic heating is the dominant heating term. These results provide an explanation for hot supra-arcade plasma sheets that are often observed in X-rays and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths during the decay phase of large flares. Title: Solar Eruptions Triggered by Flux Emergence Authors: Torok, T.; Linton, M.; Leake, J. E.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH33B3390T Altcode: Observations have shown a clear association of prominence eruptions and CMEs with the emergence of magnetic flux close to, or within, filament channels. It has been suggested that reconnection triggered by the emergence destroys the force balance between the magnetic field in the filament channel and its ambient field, causing the former to erupt. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulations support this scenario for two-dimensional (2D) coronal flux-rope configurations. However, such simulations do not take into account 3D effects such as the anchoring of the flux rope in the dense photosphere or the occurrence of 3D MHD instabilities. Here we present the first 3D MHD simulations of (boundary-driven) flux emergence in the vicinity of a pre-existing coronal flux rope. We find that three processes are important for the evolution of the system: (1) expansion or contraction of the coronal field due to the intrusion of new flux, (2) reconnection between the emerging and pre-existing flux systems, and (3) repulsion or attraction of the respective current channels. We vary the position and orientation of the emerging flux and investigate under which conditions these processes can trigger an eruption. Title: Tracking Topological Changes in MHD Simulations using Slip-Back Mapping Authors: Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH53B3379L Altcode: The topology of the coronal magnetic field produces a strong impact on the properties of the solar corona and presumably on the origin of the slow solar wind. To advance our understanding of this impact, we revisit the concept of the so-called slip-back mapping (Titov et al. 2009) and adapt it to determine open, closed, and disconnected flux systems that are formed in the solar corona by magnetic reconnection during a given time interval. In particular, the method we developed allows us to describe the magnetic flux transfer between open and closed flux regions via so-called interchange reconnection with unprecedented level of details. We illustrate the application of this method to the analysis of a global MHD evolution of the solar corona that is driven by idealized differential rotation of the photospheric plasma. Title: Validation of MHD Model Predictions of the Corona with LASCO-C2 Polarized Brightness Images Authors: Lamy, Philippe; Floyd, Olivier; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2019SoPh..294..162L Altcode: Progress in our understanding of the solar corona requires that the results of advanced magnetohydrodynamic models driven by measured magnetic fields, and particularly the underlying heating models, be thoroughly compared with coronal observations. The comparison has so far mainly concerned the global morphology of the corona, synthetic images calculated from the models being compared with observed images. We go one step further by performing detailed quantitative comparisons between the calculated polarized radiance p B using the three-dimensional electron density produced by MHD models and well calibrated polarized images obtained by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph LASCO-C2 coronagraph complemented by ground-based images when available from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory Mark IV and K-Cor instruments to extend the comparison to the inner coronal region 1.0 - 2.5 R⊙, which is inaccessible to C2. We take advantage of the high-resolution and high-quality MHD predictions performed for several solar eclipses (1 August 2008, 11 July 2010, 13 November 2012, and 21 August 2017) and for the first perihelion passage of the Parker Solar Probe (5 November 2018) using two different three-dimensional MHD models relying on either a thermodynamic or a wave-turbulence-driven methodologies to heat the corona. Both models are generally able to match the observed structure and photometry of the corona albeit with various degrees of fidelity for which there is no obvious explanation. However, two limitations emerge, the complexity of coronae of the maximum type and the time lapse between the completion of the magnetograph measurements and the prediction. Title: Can an Unobserved Concentration of Magnetic Flux Above the Poles of the Sun Resolve the Open Flux Problem? Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Caplan, Ronald M.; Downs, Cooper; Thumm, Jean-Luc Bibcode: 2019ApJ...884...18R Altcode: Global models of the extended solar corona, driven by observed photospheric magnetic fields, generally cannot reproduce the amplitude of the measured interplanetary magnetic field at 1 au (or elsewhere in the heliosphere), often underestimating it by a factor of two or more. Some modelers have attempted to resolve this “open flux” problem by adjusting what they believe to be errors in the estimates of the photospheric field values. Others have simply multiplied interplanetary estimates by some correction factor to match 1 au values. Here, we investigate whether this “missing” flux can be explained by a source of largely unobserved, concentrated bundles of flux in the photosphere at latitudes too high to be adequately resolved by ground-based observatories or Earth-based spacecraft. Using potential field source-surface and magnetohydrodynamic models, we demonstrate that this additional polar flux can (at least partially) resolve the open flux problem, without generating any new observational discrepancies. For example, we show that model solutions without this additional flux systematically produce streams lying at higher hello-latitudes than is inferred from observations. More importantly, adding this polar flux to the models does not substantially change the location or size of computed coronal holes. The upcoming joint ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter mission may be able to support or refute this idea. Title: Bounding the Energy of Solar Eruptions Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ronald M.; Torok, Tibor; Riley, Pete; Titov, Viacheslav; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Amari, Tahar Bibcode: 2019AAS...23431704L Altcode: Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the fundamental source of solar energetic particles and geomagnetic storms, and are thus key drivers of space weather at Earth. The energy for solar eruptions is recognized to originate in the solar magnetic field, and is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. Solar active regions are the site of the most violent activity. Solar active regions can store widely varying amounts of energy, so knowledge of the free energy alone does not necessarily tell us when an eruption is imminent. For estimates of the free energy to provide predictive power, we must know how much energy a region can store - what is the energy bound?

In recent work, we have found that the energy of a particular field, the partially open field (POF), can place a useful bound on the energy of an eruption from real active regions, a much tighter constraint than the energy of the fully open field. However, in general, it is difficult to solve for the POF. In this presentation, we discuss methods for approximating the energy of this field, and show a comparison of the approximation for a case where the solution is known. We discuss the implications for understanding and predicting major solar eruptions.

Research supported by NASA and AFOSR Title: GPU Acceleration of an Established Solar MHD Code using OpenACC Authors: Caplan, R. M.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Downs, C.; Török, T.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2019JPhCS1225a2012C Altcode: 2018arXiv181102605C GPU accelerators have had a notable impact on high-performance computing across many disciplines. They provide high performance with low cost/power, and therefore have become a primary compute resource on many of the largest supercomputers. Here, we implement multi-GPU acceleration into our Solar MHD code (MAS) using OpenACC in a fully portable, single-source manner. Our preliminary implementation is focused on MAS running in a reduced physics “zero-beta” mode. While valuable on its own, our main goal is to pave the way for a full physics, thermodynamic MHD implementation. We describe the OpenACC implementation methodology and challenges. “Time-to-solution” performance results of a production-level flux rope eruption simulation on multi-CPU and multi-GPU systems are shown. We find that the GPU-accelerated MAS code has the ability to run “zero-beta” simulations on a single multi-GPU server at speeds previously requiring multiple CPU server-nodes of a supercomputer. Title: Slip-Back Mapping as a Tracker of Topological Changes in Evolving Magnetic Configurations Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2019shin.confE.116T Altcode: The topology of the coronal magnetic field produces a strong impact on the properties of the solar corona and presumably on the origin of the slow solar wind. To advance our understanding of this impact, we revisit the concept of the so-called slip-back mapping (Titov et al. 2009) and adapt it for determining open, closed, and disconnected flux systems that are formed in the solar corona by magnetic reconnection during a given time interval. The method we have developed on this basis allows us, in particular, to describe the magnetic flux transfer between these systems via so-called interchange reconnection with unprecedented level of details. The present implementation of the method relies on the tracking of magnetic field lines through their moving footpoints at both lower and upper spherical boundaries, which is not always possible if there is a radial flow at the polarity inversion line. Nevertheless, even with this restricted implementation, the proposed method enables us to analyze a global MHD evolution of the solar corona that is driven by idealized differential rotation of the photospheric plasma (Lionello et al. 2005). To overcome the indicated restriction, we propose an extension of the method that will allow investigating magnetic field evolutions driven by more general boundary conditions. We anticipate that the generalized method will be particularly useful for the analysis of global MHD models combined with solar wind measurements from the Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter missions.

Research supported by NASA’s HSR, LWS, and HGI programs, NSF grant AGS-1560411, and AFOSR contract FA9550-15-C-0001. Title: Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere during Parker Solar Probe's First Perihelion Pass Authors: Riley, Pete; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Caplan, Ronald M. Bibcode: 2019ApJ...874L..15R Altcode: 2019arXiv190209673R NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (PSP) spacecraft reached its first perihelion of 35.7 solar radii on 2018 November 5. To aid in mission planning, and in anticipation of the unprecedented measurements to be returned, in late October, we developed a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solution for the solar corona and inner heliosphere, driven by the then available observations of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field. Our model incorporates a wave-turbulence-driven model to heat the corona. Here, we present our predictions for the structure of the solar corona and the likely in situ measurements that PSP will be returning over the next few months. We infer that, in the days prior to first encounter, PSP was immersed in wind emanating from a well-established, positive-polarity northern polar coronal hole. During the encounter, however, field lines from the spacecraft mapped to a negative-polarity equatorial coronal hole, within which it remained for the entire encounter, before becoming magnetically connected to a positive-polarity equatorial coronal hole. When the PSP data become available, these model results can be used to assist in their calibration and interpretation, and, additionally, provide a global context for interpreting the localized in situ measurements. In particular, we can identify what types of solar wind PSP encountered, what the underlying magnetic structure was, and how complexities in the orbital trajectory can be interpreted within a global, inertial frame. Ultimately, the measurements returned by PSP can be used to constrain current theories for heating the solar corona and accelerating the solar wind. Title: Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects Authors: Schwadron, Nathan A.; Cooper, John F.; Desai, Mihir; Downs, Cooper; Gorby, Matt; Jordan, Andrew P.; Joyce, Colin J.; Kozarev, Kamen; Linker, Jon A.; Mikíc, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Spence, Harlan E.; Török, Tibor; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, Jody K.; Zeitlin, Cary Bibcode: 2019sfsw.book..257S Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Ion Charge States in a Time-Dependent Wave-Turbulence-Driven Model of the Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Raymond, John; Shen, Chengcai; Velli, Marco Bibcode: 2019SoPh..294...13L Altcode: 2019arXiv190103748L; 2018SoPh..294...13L Ion fractional charge states, measured in situ in the heliosphere, depend on the properties of the plasma in the inner corona. As the ions travel outward in the solar wind and the electron density drops, the charge states remain essentially unaltered or "frozen in". Thus they can provide a powerful constraint on heating models of the corona and acceleration of the solar wind. We have implemented non-equilibrium ionization calculations into a 1D wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) hydrodynamic solar wind model and compared modeled charge states with the Ulysses 1994 - 1995 in situ measurements. We have found that modeled charge-state ratios of C6+/C5+ and O7+/O6+, among others, were too low compared with Ulysses measurements. However, a heuristic reduction of the plasma flow speed has been able to bring the modeled results in line with observations, though other ideas have been proposed to address this discrepancy. We discuss implications of our results and the prospect of including ion charge-state calculations into our 3D MHD model of the inner heliosphere. Title: Identifying Observables That Can Differentiate Between Impulsive and Footpoint Heating: Time Lags and Intensity Ratios Authors: Winebarger, Amy R.; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon Bibcode: 2018ApJ...865..111W Altcode: 2018arXiv180605374W Observations of solar coronal loops have identified several common loop characteristics, including that loops appear to cool and have higher than expected densities. Two potential heating scenarios have been suggested to explain these observations. One scenario is that the loops are formed by many strands, each heated independently by a series of small-scale impulsive heating events, or nanoflares. Another hypothesis is that the heating is quasi-steady and highly stratified, i.e., “footpoint heating” such heating can drive thermal nonequilibrium in some structures depending on the scale height and magnitude of the energy deposition, and the geometry of the structure. Studies of both types of heating have found that they can qualitatively reproduce the observed loop properties. The goal of this paper is to identify observables that can be used to differentiate between these two heating scenarios. To do this, we use a single loop geometry. For footpoint heating, we vary the heating magnitude and stratification, for impulsive heating, we vary the heating magnitude. We use one-dimensional hydrodynamic codes to calculate the resulting temperature and density evolution. We convolve the temperature and density with the response functions of four EUV channels of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and one filter channel of Hinode's X-ray Telescope. We consider two principal diagnostics: the time lag between the appearance of the loop in two different channels, and the ratio of the peak intensities of the loop in the two channels. Based on this limited data set, we find (1) that footpoint heating can predict longer time lags than impulsive heating in some channel pairs, (2) that footpoint heating can predict zero or negative time lags in some channel pairs, (3) that the intensity ratio expected from impulsive heating is confined to a narrow range, while footpoint heating predicts a wider range of intensity ratios, and (4) that the range of temperatures expected in impulsive heating is broader than the range of temperatures expected in footpoint heating. This preliminary study identifies observables that may be useful in discriminating between heating models in future work. Title: Global Non-Potential Magnetic Models of the Solar Corona During the March 2015 Eclipse Authors: Yeates, Anthony R.; Amari, Tahar; Contopoulos, Ioannis; Feng, Xueshang; Mackay, Duncan H.; Mikić, Zoran; Wiegelmann, Thomas; Hutton, Joseph; Lowder, Christopher A.; Morgan, Huw; Petrie, Gordon; Rachmeler, Laurel A.; Upton, Lisa A.; Canou, Aurelien; Chopin, Pierre; Downs, Cooper; Druckmüller, Miloslav; Linker, Jon A.; Seaton, Daniel B.; Török, Tibor Bibcode: 2018SSRv..214...99Y Altcode: 2018arXiv180800785Y Seven different models are applied to the same problem of simulating the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the solar eclipse on 2015 March 20. All of the models are non-potential, allowing for free magnetic energy, but the associated electric currents are developed in significantly different ways. This is not a direct comparison of the coronal modelling techniques, in that the different models also use different photospheric boundary conditions, reflecting the range of approaches currently used in the community. Despite the significant differences, the results show broad agreement in the overall magnetic topology. Among those models with significant volume currents in much of the corona, there is general agreement that the ratio of total to potential magnetic energy should be approximately 1.4. However, there are significant differences in the electric current distributions; while static extrapolations are best able to reproduce active regions, they are unable to recover sheared magnetic fields in filament channels using currently available vector magnetogram data. By contrast, time-evolving simulations can recover the filament channel fields at the expense of not matching the observed vector magnetic fields within active regions. We suggest that, at present, the best approach may be a hybrid model using static extrapolations but with additional energization informed by simplified evolution models. This is demonstrated by one of the models. Title: Predicting the corona for the 21 August 2017 total solar eclipse Authors: Mikić; , Zoran; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Caplan, Ronald M.; Mackay, Duncan H.; Upton, Lisa A.; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Török, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Wijaya, Janvier; Druckmüller, Miloslav; Pasachoff, Jay M.; Carlos, Wendy Bibcode: 2018NatAs...2..913M Altcode: 2018NatAs.tmp..120M The total solar eclipse that occurred on 21 August 2017 across the United States provided an opportunity to test a magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona driven by measured magnetic fields. We used a new heating model based on the dissipation of Alfvén waves, and a new energization mechanism to twist the magnetic field in filament channels. We predicted what the corona would look like one week before the eclipse. Here, we describe how this prediction was accomplished, and show that it compared favourably with observations of the eclipse in white light and extreme ultraviolet. The model allows us to understand the relationship of observed features, including streamers, coronal holes, prominences, polar plumes and thin rays, to the magnetic field. We show that the discrepancies between the model and observations arise from limitations in our ability to observe the Sun's magnetic field. Predictions of this kind provide opportunities to improve the models, forging the path to improved space weather prediction. Title: Generalizing the RBSL-method for Flux Ropes with Various Current Profiles and Nonzero External Axial Field Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper; Torok, Tibor; Caplan, Ronald; Wijaya, Janvier Bibcode: 2018cosp...42E3391T Altcode: Magnetic flux ropes (FRs) likely play a key role in prominence formation and solar eruptions.It is therefore important to develop methods for constructing FR configurations constrained by observational data.With this aim, we have recently derived a pair of regularized Biot-Savart laws (RBSLs; Titov et al. 2017) that allow one to efficiently calculate the magnetic vector potential of an FR with circular cross-sections and an axis of arbitrary shape.One of the RBSLs represents the axial component of the vector potential produced by the axial current of the FR, while the other represents the azimuthal component produced by the axial flux of the FR.The kernels of the RBSLs are regularized at the axis in such a way that, when the axis is straight, the RBSLs define a cylindrical flux rope whose structure is exactly force-free.Therefore, a curved thin FR defined by the RBSLs with the same kernels is approximately force-free.Originally, we implemented the RBSLs only for FRs that have a parabolic profile of the axial current and a vanishing axial magnetic field at the FR surface.Here we present a two-parametric generalization of the method that describes FRs with various axial-current profiles and a nonvanishing external axial field existing in sheared configurations.To benchmark this generalization, we applied it first to simple configurations of a toroidal-arc FR embedded into a potential background field, which are geometrically similar to the model proposed by Titov & Démoulin (1999).We investigated the numerical FR equilibria reached in zero-beta MHD relaxations of these configurations in dependence of the initial axial-current profile and the strength of the external axial field. We plan to apply the generalized RBSLs to more realistic and complex configurations. Our previous successful applications of the RBSLs for FRs with a parabolic axial-current profile suggest the following. The shape of the FR axis can be determined in more complicated cases by tracking the observed polarity inversion line of the eruptions' source region and estimating its height variation as well as other FR parameters by means of a potential field extrapolated from the observed magnetogram. This research was supported by NASA's HSR, LWS, and HGI programs,NSF grants AGS-1560411 and AGS-1135432,and AFOSR contract FA9550-15-C-0001. Title: Using MHD Simulations for Space-Weather Forecasting: Where do we Stand? Authors: Torok, Tibor; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Titov, Viacheslav; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ronald; Wijaya, Janvier Bibcode: 2018cosp...42E3415T Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of space-weather disturbances in the terrestrial magnetosphere. Predicting the impact of CMEs before they arrive at Earth is one of the main challenges of solar and heliospheric physics. A candidate tool for this purpose are numerical simulations. State-of-the-art MHD simulations are now capable of modeling CMEs all the way from Sun to Earth, but they are computationally still too demanding to be used for real-time modeling. At present, only a simplified model (ENLIL), which does not include the corona and simulates CMEs as velocity perturbations, is used for operational space-weather forecast. However, given the continuous increase of computing power, more sophisticated simulations may become available for this purpose in the near future, and first attempts are currently made to prepare for operational use. A specific task at hand is to evaluate the accuracy of these simulations in reproducing in-situ measurements at Earth. I this presentation, we will briefly review state-of-the-art CME simulations and discuss their predictive capabilities and limitations. As an example, we will present a recent Sun-to-Earth simulation of the well-known 14 July 2000 "Bastille-Day" event, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. Title: Effect of Coronal Hole Obscuration on Open Flux Measurements Authors: Caplan, Ronald Meyer; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2018shin.confE.254C Altcode: Coronal holes (CH) are commonly associated with open field regions on the Sun. Full-sun maps of CHs detected in EUV images can be overlaid on photospheric magnetic field measurements to estimate the open magnetic flux in the heliosphere, but these estimates are typically smaller than averaged in-situ measurements at Earth. This could be due to many factors, including systematic uncertainties in measured magnetic field strengths, under-estimated polar field values, parameter/algorithm choices of the CH detection, and incomplete CH detection due to obscuration by nearby structures. Here we attempt to systematically test the effects of CH obscuration using diagnostics from a realistic thermodynamic MHD model of the global solar corona. By generating synthetic EUV images from multiple viewing perspectives, we explore how CH maps and open flux diagnostics change depending on the available viewing geometries (all perspectives, Sun-Earth line only, and 2-3 views only). These results give insight into how much the obscuration of CHs might influence CH-based open flux estimates. Title: Solar EUV Irradiance: a Coronal Modeling Perspective Authors: Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto Bibcode: 2018tess.conf40902D Altcode: Understanding, modeling, and eventually predicting the response of the Earth's atmosphere to changes in the Sun's spectral irradiance naturally requires a cross disciplinary approach to bring together knowledge, data, and models from the diverse physical systems involved. In this talk, we will outline what we see as the current state-of-the-art in physics-based coronal modeling techniques, particularly those pertaining to forward modeling and predicting the EUV and soft X-Ray spectral irradiance of the Sun. With the goal of opening a dialog about what modeling products may (or may not) be of use to the larger solar irradiance community, we will draw from a range examples—from our latest research modeling efforts, to production runs that are routinely available. We will outline the challenges in modeling the thermal-magnetic structure of solar corona and its variation, which involves capturing the essential interplay between coronal heating, plasma dynamics, and the inherently complex, structured magnetic field of the corona. A particular focus will be placed on how physics-based coronal modeling and spectral synthesis may potentially supplement and/or improve atmospheric model drivers based on irradiance observations and proxies, ideally providing context for future integrated irradiance and atmospheric modeling efforts. Title: Partially Open Fields and Solar Eruptions Authors: Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ronald M.; Riley, Pete; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Lionello, Roberto; Amari, Tahar Bibcode: 2018tess.conf10905L Altcode: Partially Open Fields and Solar Eruptions*

Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the progenitors of solar energetic particles and geomagnetic storms, and are thus key drivers of space weather at Earth. The solar magnetic field is the ultimate source of these massive events, the energy of which is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. The amount of free magnetic energy available in a given region is therefore a crucial indicator of its propensity for eruption. However, solar active regions, from which the largest events originate, can store widely varying amounts of energy. Therefore, estimates of the free energy alone are likely to be insufficient for knowing when a region will erupt; we must also estimate the bounds on how much energy can be stored in a given region.

The Aly-Sturrock theorem (Aly, ApJ 1991; Sturrock, ApJ 1991) shows that the energy of a fully force-free field cannot exceed the energy of the so-called open field. If the theorem holds, this places an upper limit on the amount of free energy that can be stored. In this paper, we describe how a closely related field, the partially open field (Wolfson & Low ApJ 1992; Hu, ApJ 2004; Aly & Amari, GAFD 2007), may place a much tighter bound on energy storage and yield insights as to when major eruptions from an active region are imminent (Amari et al., Nature, 2014). We demonstrate the idea for AR9077, the source of the July 14, 2000 "Bastille Day" flare/CME.

*Research supported by NASA and AFOSR Title: Sun-To-Earth MHD Simulation of the 14 JULY 2000 "Bastille Day" Eruption Authors: Torok, Tibor; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Caplan, Ron M.; Wijaya, Janvier Bibcode: 2018EGUGA..20.5564T Altcode: Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at the Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 14 July 2000 ``Bastille Day" eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a ``thermodynamic" MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption's source region and initiate the eruption by boundary flows. More than 1033 ergs of magnetic energy are released in the eruption within a few minutes, driving a flare, an EUV wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels in the outer corona at ≈ 1500 km s-1, close to the observed speed. We then propagate the CME to Earth, using a heliospheric MHD code. Our simulation thus provides the opportunity to test how well in situ observations of extreme events are matched if the eruption is initiated from a stable magnetic-equilibrium state. We find that the flux-rope center is very similar in character to the observed magnetic cloud, but arrives ≈ 8.5 hours later and ≈ 15° too far to the North, with field strengths that are too weak by a factor of ≈ 1.6. The front of the flux rope is highly distorted, exhibiting localized magnetic-field concentrations as it passes 1 AU. We discuss these properties with regard to the development of space-weather predictions based on MHD simulations of solar eruptions. Title: Sun-to-Earth MHD Simulation of the 2000 July 14 “Bastille Day” Eruption Authors: Török, Tibor; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, R.; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Caplan, Ronald M.; Wijaya, Janvier Bibcode: 2018ApJ...856...75T Altcode: 2018arXiv180105903T Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 2000 July 14 “Bastille Day” eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a “thermodynamic” MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption’s source region and initiate the eruption by boundary flows. More than 1033 erg of magnetic energy is released in the eruption within a few minutes, driving a flare, an extreme-ultraviolet wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels in the outer corona at ≈1500 km s-1, close to the observed speed. We then propagate the CME to Earth, using a heliospheric MHD code. Our simulation thus provides the opportunity to test how well in situ observations of extreme events are matched if the eruption is initiated from a stable magnetic equilibrium state. We find that the flux-rope center is very similar in character to the observed magnetic cloud, but arrives ≈8.5 hr later and ≈15° too far to the north, with field strengths that are too weak by a factor of ≈1.6. The front of the flux rope is highly distorted, exhibiting localized magnetic field concentrations as it passes 1 au. We discuss these properties with regard to the development of space-weather predictions based on MHD simulations of solar eruptions. Title: On the Occurrence of Thermal Nonequilibrium in Coronal Loops Authors: Froment, C.; Auchère, F.; Mikić, Z.; Aulanier, G.; Bocchialini, K.; Buchlin, E.; Solomon, J.; Soubrié, E. Bibcode: 2018ApJ...855...52F Altcode: 2018arXiv180204010F Long-period EUV pulsations, recently discovered to be common in active regions, are understood to be the coronal manifestation of thermal nonequilibrium (TNE). The active regions previously studied with EIT/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and AIA/SDO indicated that long-period intensity pulsations are localized in only one or two loop bundles. The basic idea of this study is to understand why. For this purpose, we tested the response of different loop systems, using different magnetic configurations, to different stratifications and strengths of the heating. We present an extensive parameter-space study using 1D hydrodynamic simulations (1020 in total) and conclude that the occurrence of TNE requires specific combinations of parameters. Our study shows that the TNE cycles are confined to specific ranges in parameter space. This naturally explains why only some loops undergo constant periodic pulsations over several days: since the loop geometry and the heating properties generally vary from one loop to another in an active region, only the ones in which these parameters are compatible exhibit TNE cycles. Furthermore, these parameters (heating and geometry) are likely to vary significantly over the duration of a cycle, which potentially limits the possibilities of periodic behavior. This study also confirms that long-period intensity pulsations and coronal rain are two aspects of the same phenomenon: both phenomena can occur for similar heating conditions and can appear simultaneously in the simulations. Title: Regularized Biot-Savart Laws for Modeling Magnetic Flux Ropes Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Downs, Cooper; Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; Linker, Jon A.; Caplan, Ronald M. Bibcode: 2018ApJ...852L..21T Altcode: 2017arXiv171206708T Many existing models assume that magnetic flux ropes play a key role in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is therefore important to develop efficient methods for constructing flux-rope configurations constrained by observed magnetic data and the morphology of the pre-eruptive source region. For this purpose, we have derived and implemented a compact analytical form that represents the magnetic field of a thin flux rope with an axis of arbitrary shape and circular cross-sections. This form implies that the flux rope carries axial current I and axial flux F, so that the respective magnetic field is the curl of the sum of axial and azimuthal vector potentials proportional to I and F, respectively. We expressed the vector potentials in terms of modified Biot-Savart laws, whose kernels are regularized at the axis in such a way that, when the axis is straight, these laws define a cylindrical force-free flux rope with a parabolic profile for the axial current density. For the cases we have studied so far, we determined the shape of the rope axis by following the polarity inversion line of the eruptions’ source region, using observed magnetograms. The height variation along the axis and other flux-rope parameters are estimated by means of potential-field extrapolations. Using this heuristic approach, we were able to construct pre-eruption configurations for the 2009 February 13 and 2011 October 1 CME events. These applications demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our new method for energizing pre-eruptive configurations in simulations of CMEs. Title: Can Polar Fields Explain Missing Open Flux? Authors: Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Caplan, R. M.; Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH54A..02L Altcode: The "open" magnetic field is the portion of the Sun's magnetic field that extends out into the heliosphere and becomes the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Both the IMF and the Sun's magnetic field in the photosphere have been measured for many years. In the standard paradigm of coronal structure, the open magnetic field originates primarily in coronal holes. The regions that are magnetically closed trap the coronal plasma and give rise to the streamer belt. This basic picture is qualitatively reproduced by models of coronal structure using photospheric magnetic fields as input. If this paradigm is correct, there are two primary observational constraints on the models: (1) The open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes observed in emission, and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. Linker et al. (2017, ApJ, submitted) investigated the July 2010 time period for a range of observatory maps and both PFSS and MHD models. We found that all of the model/map combinations underestimated the interplanetary magnetic flux, unless the modeled open field regions were larger than observed coronal holes. An estimate of the open magnetic flux made entirely from solar observations (combining detected coronal hole boundaries with observatory synoptic magnetic maps) also underestimated the interplanetary magnetic flux. The magnetic field near the Sun's poles is poorly observed and may not be well represented in observatory maps. In this paper, we explore whether an underestimate of the polar magnetic flux during this time period could account for the overall underestimate of open magnetic flux. Research supported by NASA, AFOSR, and NSF. Title: The Solar Orbiter Heliospheric Imager (SoloHI) for the Solar Orbiter Mission Authors: Howard, R.; Colaninno, R. C.; Plunkett, S. P.; Thernisien, A. F.; Wang, D.; Rich, N.; Korendyke, C.; Socker, D. G.; Linton, M.; McMullin, D. R.; Vourlidas, A.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E.; Velli, M.; Mikic, Z.; Bothmer, V.; Philippe, L.; Carter, M. T. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH23D2681H Altcode: The SoloHI instrument has completed its development effort and has been integrated onto the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft. The SolO mission, scheduled for launch in February 2019, will undergo gravity assist maneuvers around Venus to change both the perihelion distance as well as the plane of the orbit to ultimately achieve a minimum perihelion of 0.28 AU and an orbital inclination of about 35° relative to the ecliptic plane. The remote sensing instruments will operate for three 10-day periods out of the nominal 6-month orbit. SoloHI will observe sunlight scattered by free electrons in the corona/solar wind from 5° to 45° elongation in visible wavelengths and will provide a coupling between remote sensing and in situ observations. It is very similar to the HI-1 instrument on STEREO/SECCHI except that the FOV is twice the size at 40o. We present our efforts to prepare for the mission including our observing plans, quick-look plans and some results of the calibration activities. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the NASA Solar Orbiter Collaboration project. Title: 3D MHD Modeling of Prominence Formation by Plasma Evaporation and Condensation Authors: Torok, T.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Downs, C.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH41C..07T Altcode: The formation of prominence material in the solar corona still belongs to the open questions of solar physics. There exists a consensus that prominence plasma has to be of chromospheric origin, but the mechanisms by which it accumulates in the corona are still not well understood. The presently most accepted scenario invokes the evaporation of chromospheric plasma via foot point heating and its subsequent condensation in the corona via thermal instabilities. This scenario has been successfully modeled in 1D hydrodynamic simulations along single field lines of a static magnetic field, but a more appropriate, fully 3D treatment of the thermodynamics in time-dependent magnetic fields was started just very recently by Xia et al. Our group at PSI has recently begun to engage in this challenging task as well, using our time-dependent, fully 3D thermodynamic MHD code MAS. For our investigation we consider two different coronal flux-rope configurations, using the analytical model by Titov and Démoulin and a model in which an elongated flux rope is constructed by photospheric flows. We investigate the plasma behavior for both configurations, using heating models of different complexity, and accompany our analysis by 1D loop simulations performed along selected field lines. In this presentation, we outline our modeling approach and discuss the results obtained so far. Title: The Wide-Field Imager for the Parker Solar Probe Mission (WISPR) Authors: Plunkett, S. P.; Howard, R.; Chua, D. H.; Crump, N. A.; Dennison, H.; Korendyke, C.; Linton, M.; Rich, N.; Socker, D. G.; Thernisien, A. F.; Wang, D.; Vourlidas, A.; Baugh, R.; Van Duyne, J. P.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E.; Boies, M. T.; Mikic, Z.; Bothmer, V.; Rochus, P.; Halain, J. P. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH23D2693P Altcode: The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission will be humanity's first visit to the atmosphere of our nearest star, the Sun, when it is launched in July 2018. PSP will complete 24 orbits between the Sun and Venus with diminishing perihelia reaching as close as 7 million km (9.86 solar radii) from Sun center. In addition to a suite of in-situ probes for the magnetic field, plasma, and energetic particles, the payload includes the Wide Field Imager for Solar Probe (WISPR) that will record unprecedented visible light images of the solar corona and the inner heliosphere. WISPR is the smallest heliospheric imager to date, and comprises two nested wide-field telescopes with large-format (2K x 2K) APS CMOS detectors to optimize the performance over a combined 95º radial by 58º transverse field of view and to minimize the risk of dust damage, which may be considerable close to the Sun. WISPR will discover - in this never-before explored region of the heliosphere - the fundamental nature of coronal structures and the source regions of the solar wind as the PSP flies through them, and will determine whether a dust-free zone exists near the Sun. WISPR has completed its development effort and has been integrated onto the PSP spacecraft. In this paper, we will present our efforts to prepare for the mission including our observing plans and some results of the calibration activities. Title: Ion Charge States in the July 14, 2000 CME: MHD Simulations Authors: Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Raymond, J. C.; Shen, C. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH11B2438L Altcode: In situ measurements of ion fractional charge states at 1 AU and elsewhere can provide important information about electron temperatures back in the corona, since, once "frozen in," the charge states remain essentially unaltered as they travel through the solar wind. For example, high-ionization states suggest that the plasma originated from hotter regions on the solar corona. However, connecting these in situ measurements with remote spectroscopic observations has proven difficult. Using a global MHD model of the solar corona and heliosphere, which includes the self-consistent calculation of minor ion charge states, we compute the fractional charge state profiles of several ions associated with the CME that occurred on July 14, 2000 and the ambient solar wind. Our approach is based on non-equilibrium ionization calculations, which are more accurate than the standard ionization equilibrium way of computing charge states. We follow the evolution of these profiles, together with the magnetofluid parameters as the plasma propagates from the low corona to 1 AU. We discuss the results of the CME simulations, compare them with in situ measurements, and relate them to theories for the origin of CMEs. Title: Thermal energy creation and transport and X-ray/EUV emission in a thermodynamic MHD CME simulation Authors: Reeves, K.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Murphy, N. A. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH11C..07R Altcode: We model a CME using the PSI 3D numerical MHD code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction and radiative cooling in the energy equation. The magnetic flux distribution at 1 Rs is produced by a localized subsurface dipole superimposed on a global dipole field, mimicking the presence of an active region within the global corona. We introduce transverse electric fields near the neutral line in the active region to form a flux rope, then a converging flow is imposed that causes the eruption. We follow the formation and evolution of the current sheet and find that instabilities set in soon after the reconnection commences. We simulate XRT and AIA EUV emission and find that the instabilities manifest as bright features emanating from the reconnection region. We examine the quantities responsible for plasma heating and cooling during the eruption, including thermal conduction, radiation, adiabatic compression and expansion, coronal heating and ohmic heating due to dissipation of currents. We find that the adiabatic compression plays an important role in heating the plasma around the current sheet, especially in the later stages of the eruption when the instabilities are present. Thermal conduction also plays an important role in the transport of thermal energy away from the current sheet region throughout the reconnection process. Title: Regularized Biot-Savart Laws for Modeling Magnetic Configurations with Flux Ropes Authors: Titov, V. S.; Downs, C.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH12A..06T Altcode: Many existing models assume that magnetic flux ropes play a key role in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is therefore important to develop efficient methods for constructing flux-rope configurations constrained by observed magnetic data and the initial morphology of CMEs. For this purpose, we have derived and implemented a compact analytical form that represents the magnetic field of a thin flux rope with an axis of arbitrary shape and a circular cross-section. This form implies that the flux rope carries axial current I and axial flux F, so that the respective magnetic field is the curl of the sum of toroidal and poloidal vector potentials proportional to I and F, respectively. We expressed the vector potentials in terms of modified Biot-Savart laws whose kernels are regularized at the axis in such a way that these laws define a cylindrical force-free flux rope with a parabolic profile of the axial current density, when the axis is straight. For the cases we have studied so far, we determined the shape of the rope axis by following the polarity inversion line of the eruptions' source region, using observed magnetograms. The height variation along the axis and other flux-rope parameters are estimated by means of potential field extrapolations. Using this heuristic approach, we were able to construct pre-eruption configurations for the 2009 February13 and 2011 October 1 CME events. These applications demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our new method for energizing pre-eruptive configurations in MHD simulations of CMEs. We discuss possible ways of optimizing the axis paths and other extensions of the method in order to make it more useful and robust. Research supported by NSF, NASA's HSR and LWS Programs, and AFOSR. Title: Modeling the 21 August 2017 Total Solar Eclipse: Prediction Results and New Techniques Authors: Downs, C.; Mikic, Z.; Caplan, R. M.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Riley, P.; MacKay, D.; Upton, L. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH13B2475D Altcode: As has been our tradition for past solar eclipses, we conducted a high resolution magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona to predict the appearance of the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse. In this presentation, we discuss our model setup and our forward modeled predictions for the corona's appearance, including images of polarized brightness and EUV/soft X-Ray emission. We show how the combination of forward modeled observables and knowledge of the underlying magnetic field from the model can be used to interpret the structures seen during the eclipse. We also discuss two new features added to this year's prediction. First, in an attempt to improve the morphological shape of streamers in the low corona, we energize the large-scale magnetic field by emerging shear and canceling flux within filament channels. The handedness of the shear is deduced from a magnetofrictional model, which is driven by the evolving photospheric field produced by the Advective Flux Transport model. Second, we apply our new wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) model for coronal heating. This model has substantially fewer free parameters than previous empirical heating models, but is inherently sensitive to the 3D geometry and connectivity of the magnetic field--a key property for modeling the thermal-magnetic structure of the corona. We examine the effect of these considerations on forward modeled observables, and present them in the context of our final 2017 eclipse prediction (www.predsci.com/corona/aug2017eclipse). Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Supporting Research and Living With a Star Programs. Title: Time-dependent Ionization in a Steady Flow in an MHD Model of the Solar Corona and Wind Authors: Shen, Chengcai; Raymond, John C.; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Reeves, Katharine K.; Murphy, Nicholas A. Bibcode: 2017ApJ...850...26S Altcode: Time-dependent ionization is important for diagnostics of coronal streamers and pseudostreamers. We describe time-dependent ionization calculations for a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. We analyze how non-equilibrium ionization (NEI) influences emission from a pseudostreamer during the Whole Sun Month interval (Carrington rotation CR1913, 1996 August 22 to September 18). We use a time-dependent code to calculate NEI states, based on the plasma temperature, density, velocity, and magnetic field in the MHD model, to obtain the synthetic emissivities and predict the intensities of the Lyα, O VI, Mg x, and Si xii emission lines observed by the SOHO/Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS). At low coronal heights, the predicted intensity profiles of both Lyα and O VI lines match UVCS observations well, but the Mg x and Si xii emission are predicted to be too bright. At larger heights, the O VI and Mg x lines are predicted to be brighter for NEI than equilibrium ionization around this pseudostreamer, and Si xii is predicted to be fainter for NEI cases. The differences of predicted UVCS intensities between NEI and equilibrium ionization are around a factor of 2, but neither matches the observed intensity distributions along the full length of the UVCS slit. Variations in elemental abundances in closed field regions due to the gravitational settling and the FIP effect may significantly contribute to the predicted uncertainty. The assumption of Maxwellian electron distributions and errors in the magnetic field on the solar surface may also have notable effects on the mismatch between observations and model predictions. Title: Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects Authors: Schwadron, Nathan A.; Cooper, John F.; Desai, Mihir; Downs, Cooper; Gorby, Matt; Jordan, Andrew P.; Joyce, Colin J.; Kozarev, Kamen; Linker, Jon A.; Mikíc, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Spence, Harlan E.; Török, Tibor; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, Jody K.; Zeitlin, Cary Bibcode: 2017SSRv..212.1069S Altcode: 2017SSRv..tmp...63S Particle radiation has significant effects for astronauts, satellites and planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. Acute space radiation hazards pose risks to human and robotic exploration. This radiation also naturally weathers the exposed surface regolith of the Moon, the two moons of Mars, and other airless bodies, and contributes to chemical evolution of planetary atmospheres at Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, and Pluto. We provide a select review of recent areas of research covering the origin of SEPs from coronal mass ejections low in the corona, propagation of events through the solar system during the anomalously weak solar cycle 24 and important examples of radiation interactions for Earth, other planets and airless bodies such as the Moon. Title: The Open Flux Problem Authors: Linker, J. A.; Caplan, R. M.; Downs, C.; Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N.; Liu, Y.; Derosa, M. L.; Yeates, A.; Owens, M. J. Bibcode: 2017ApJ...848...70L Altcode: 2017arXiv170802342L The heliospheric magnetic field is of pivotal importance in solar and space physics. The field is rooted in the Sun’s photosphere, where it has been observed for many years. Global maps of the solar magnetic field based on full-disk magnetograms are commonly used as boundary conditions for coronal and solar wind models. Two primary observational constraints on the models are (1) the open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes (CHs) observed in emission and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. In this study, we calculate both magnetohydrodynamic and potential field source surface solutions using 14 different magnetic maps produced from five different types of observatory magnetograms, for the time period surrounding 2010 July. We have found that for all of the model/map combinations, models that have CH areas close to observations underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match the interplanetary flux, the modeled open field regions are larger than CHs observed in EUV emission. In an alternative approach, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining automatically detected CHs for Carrington rotation 2098 with observatory synoptic magnetic maps. This approach also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. Our results imply that either typical observatory maps underestimate the Sun’s magnetic flux, or a significant portion of the open magnetic flux is not rooted in regions that are obviously dark in EUV and X-ray emission. Title: Where is the Open Flux? Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ronald M.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Henney, Carl John; Arge, Charles; Owens, Matthew Bibcode: 2017SPD....4830103L Altcode: The Sun’s magnetic field has been observed in the photosphere from ground- and space-based observatories for many years. Global maps of the solar magnetic field based on full disk magnetograms (either built up over a solar rotation, or evolved using flux transport models) are commonly used as boundary conditions for coronal and solar wind models. Maps from different observatories typically agree qualitatively but often disagree quantitatively. Estimation of the coronal/solar wind physics can range from potential field source surface (PFSS) models with empirical prescriptions to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models with realistic energy transport and sub-grid scale descriptions of heating and acceleration. Two primary observational constraints on the models are (1) The open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes observed in emission, and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. We have investigated the July 2010 time period, using PFSS and MHD models computed using several available magnetic maps, coronal hole boundaries detected from STEREO and SDO EUV observations, and estimates of the interplanetary magnetic flux from in situ ACE measurements. We show that for all the model/map combinations, models that agree for (1) underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match (2), the modeled open field regions are larger than observed coronal holes. Alternatively, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining detected coronal hole boundaries with observatory synoptic magnetic maps, and show that this method also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. We discuss possible resolutions.Research supported by NASA, AFOSR, and NSF. Title: New Techniques Used in Modeling the 2017 Total Solar Eclipse: Energizing and Heating the Large-Scale Corona Authors: Downs, Cooper; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Caplan, Ronald M.; Lionello, Roberto; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Riley, Pete; Mackay, Duncan; Upton, Lisa Bibcode: 2017SPD....4820802D Altcode: Over the past two decades, our group has used a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the corona to predict the appearance of total solar eclipses. In this presentation we detail recent innovations and new techniques applied to our prediction model for the August 21, 2017 total solar eclipse. First, we have developed a method for capturing the large-scale energized fields typical of the corona, namely the sheared/twisted fields built up through long-term processes of differential rotation and flux-emergence/cancellation. Using inferences of the location and chirality of filament channels (deduced from a magnetofrictional model driven by the evolving photospheric field produced by the Advective Flux Transport model), we tailor a customized boundary electric field profile that will emerge shear along the desired portions of polarity inversion lines (PILs) and cancel flux to create long twisted flux systems low in the corona. This method has the potential to improve the morphological shape of streamers in the low solar corona. Second, we apply, for the first time in our eclipse prediction simulations, a new wave-turbulence-dissipation (WTD) based model for coronal heating. This model has substantially fewer free parameters than previous empirical heating models, but is inherently sensitive to the 3D geometry and connectivity of the coronal field---a key property for modeling/predicting the thermal-magnetic structure of the solar corona. Overall, we will examine the effect of these considerations on white-light and EUV observables from the simulations, and present them in the context of our final 2017 eclipse prediction model.Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Supporting Research and Living With a Star Programs. Title: Using Coronal Hole Maps to Constrain MHD Models Authors: Caplan, Ronald M.; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2017SPD....4810607C Altcode: In this presentation, we explore the use of coronal hole maps (CHMs) as a constraint for thermodynamic MHD models of the solar corona. Using our EUV2CHM software suite (predsci.com/chd), we construct CHMs from SDO/AIA 193Å and STEREO-A/EUVI 195Å images for multiple Carrington rotations leading up to the August 21st, 2017 total solar eclipse. We then contruct synoptic CHMs from synthetic EUV images generated from global thermodynamic MHD simulations of the corona for each rotation. Comparisons of apparent coronal hole boundaries and estimates of the net open flux are used to benchmark and constrain our MHD model leading up to the eclipse. Specifically, the comparisons are used to find optimal parameterizations of our wave turbulence dissipation (WTD) coronal heating model. Title: Regularized Biot-Savart Laws for Modeling Magnetic Flux Ropes Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Downs, Cooper; Mikic, Zoran; Torok, Tibor; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2017SPD....4840606T Altcode: Many existing models assume that magnetic flux ropes play a key role in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is therefore important to develop efficient methods for constructing flux-rope configurations constrained by observed magnetic data and the initial morphology of CMEs. As our new step in this direction, we have derived and implemented a compact analytical form that represents the magnetic field of a thin flux rope with an axis of arbitrary shape and a circular cross-section. This form implies that the flux rope carries axial current I and axial flux F, so that the respective magnetic field is a curl of the sum of toroidal and poloidal vector potentials proportional to I and F, respectively. The vector potentials are expressed in terms of Biot-Savart laws whose kernels are regularized at the rope axis. We regularized them in such a way that for a straight-line axis the form provides a cylindrical force-free flux rope with a parabolic profile of the axial current density. So far, we set the shape of the rope axis by tracking the polarity inversion lines of observed magnetograms and estimating its height and other parameters of the rope from a calculated potential field above these lines. In spite of this heuristic approach, we were able to successfully construct pre-eruption configurations for the 2009 February13 and 2011 October 1 CME events. These applications demonstrate that our regularized Biot-Savart laws are indeed a very flexible and efficient method for energizing initial configurations in MHD simulations of CMEs. We discuss possible ways of optimizing the axis paths and other extensions of the method in order to make it more useful and robust.Research supported by NSF, NASA's HSR and LWS Programs, and AFOSR. Title: Q-Maps of the Solar Corona for Two Solar Cycles - 1996-2017 Authors: Hoeksema, Jon Todd; Liu, Yang; Sun, Xudong; Titov, Viacheslav; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2017SPD....4830105H Altcode: Maps of magnetic field structures called Q-maps characterize the changing geometry of the solar corona. The geometrical Q parameter describes the ‘squashing factor’ of elemental flux tubes. Q-maps are computed from models based on observations of the photospheric magnetic field and provide intuitive visualization of large-scale magnetic topological structures where reconnection preferably occurs. We have applied the method developed by Titov et al. (e.g. ApJ, 2008) to standard synoptic maps from SDO/HMI and SOHO/MDI and are computing daily-update synoptic frames to characterize coronal field evolution for more than twenty years, from 1996 - 2017. We are making available the vector magnetic field and value of signed log Q at ten or more heights from 1.001 to 2.5 Rs computed using the PFSS (Potential Field - Source Surface) model and for some rotations at greater height using other coronal field models. Maps showing foot points of computed open field regions are also provided. Title: Prediction of the Solar Corona for the 2017 August 21 Total Solar Eclipse Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Caplan, Ronald M.; Lionello, Roberto; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Riley, Pete; Mackay, Duncan; Upton, Lisa Bibcode: 2017SPD....4820801M Altcode: It has become our tradition to predict the structure of the corona prior to eclipses, using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model based on measurements of photospheric magnetic fields on the Sun. We plan to continue this tradition for the August 21, 2017 total solar eclipse that will sweep across the United States. We will predict the structure of the corona using SDO/HMI photospheric magnetic field data, including images of polarization brightness, magnetic field line traces, and images of simulated emission in EUV and X-rays. These images can be compared directly with observations of the total eclipse, as well as observations from SDO/AIA, Hinode/XRT, and STEREO/EUVI. This year we will attempt to energize the magnetic field within filament channels for a more realistic prediction, by constructing flux ropes at the locations where filament channels are observed. The handedness of the flux ropes will be deduced from a magnetofrictional model driven by the evolving photospheric field produced by the Advective Flux Transport model.Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Supporting Research and Living With a Star Programs. Title: 2010 August 1-2 Sympathetic Eruptions. II. Magnetic Topology of the MHD Background Field Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; Linker, Jon A.; Panasenco, Olga Bibcode: 2017ApJ...845..141T Altcode: 2017arXiv170707773T Using a potential field source-surface (PFSS) model, we recently analyzed the global topology of the background coronal magnetic field for a sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that occurred on 2010 August 1-2. Here we repeat this analysis for the background field reproduced by a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that incorporates plasma thermodynamics. As for the PFSS model, we find that all three CME source regions contain a coronal hole (CH) that is separated from neighboring CHs by topologically very similar pseudo-streamer structures. However, the two models yield very different results for the size, shape, and flux of the CHs. We find that the helmet-streamer cusp line, which corresponds to a source-surface null line in the PFSS model, is structurally unstable and does not form in the MHD model. Our analysis indicates that, generally, in MHD configurations, this line instead consists of a multiple-null separator passing along the edge of disconnected-flux regions. Some of these regions are transient and may be the origin of the so-called streamer blobs. We show that the core topological structure of such blobs is a three-dimensional “plasmoid” consisting of two conjoined flux ropes of opposite handedness, which connect at a spiral null point of the magnetic field. Our analysis reveals that such plasmoids also appear in pseudo-streamers on much smaller scales. These new insights into the coronal magnetic topology provide some intriguing implications for solar energetic particle events and for the properties of the slow solar wind. Title: Ion Charge States in the Solar Wind and Coronal Mass Ejections: MHD Simulations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Reeves, Katharine; Shen, Chengcai Bibcode: 2017shin.confE..18L Altcode: In situ measurements of ion fractional charge states at 1 AU and elsewhere can provide important information about electron temperatures back in the corona, since, once "frozen in," the charge states remain essentially unaltered as they travel through the solar wind. For example, high-ionization states suggest that the plasma originated from hotter regions on the solar corona. However, connecting these in situ measurements with remote spectroscopic observations has proven difficult. Using a global MHD model of the solar corona and heliosphere, which includes the self-consistent calculation of minor ion charge states, we compute the fractional charge state profiles of several ions in both the steady state solar wind and within coronal mass ejections. Our approach is based on non-equilibrium ionization calculations, which are more accurate than the standard ionization equilibrium way of computing charge states. We follow the evolution of these profiles, together with the magnetofluid parameters as the plasma propagates from the low corona to 1 AU. We discuss the results of both steady-state solutions as well as idealized CME simulations, compare them with in situ measurements, and relate them to theories for the origin of both the slow solar wind and CMEs. Title: Q-Maps: A Synoptic Data Product for Investigating Coronal Connectivity Authors: Sun, Xudong; Hoeksema, Todd; Liu, Yang; Mikic, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav Bibcode: 2017shin.confE..73S Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Open Magnetic Flux and the Slow Solar Wind Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ronald M.; Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Henney, Carl; Arge, Charles N.; Owens, Matt Bibcode: 2017shin.confE..71L Altcode: In the standard paradigm of coronal structure (most applicable to solar minimum), the open magnetic field originates primarily in coronal holes, regions of low intensity emission in EUV and X-rays. The regions that are magnetically closed trap the coronal plasma and give rise to the streamer belt that is prominent in coronagraph and eclipse images. If this paradigm is correct, then coronal models using global maps of the photospheric magnetic field should be able to approximately match coronal boundaries observed in emission, as well as the magnitude of the open magnetic flux inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. We have investigated the July 2010 time period, using PFSS and MHD models computed using several available magnetic maps, coronal hole boundaries detected from STEREO and SDO EUV observations, and estimates of the interplanetary magnetic flux from in situ ACE measurements. We have found that for all of the model/map combinations, models that have coronal hole areas close to observations underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match the interplanetary flux, the modeled open field regions are larger than coronal holes observed in EUV emission. In an alternative approach, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining automatically detected coronal holes for Carrington rotation 2098 with observatory synoptic magnetic maps for this time period. We find that this method also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. We discuss these results and possible implications for the origin of the slow solar wind. Title: Advancing parabolic operators in thermodynamic MHD models: Explicit super time-stepping versus implicit schemes with Krylov solvers Authors: Caplan, R. M.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2017JPhCS.837a2016C Altcode: 2016arXiv161001265C We explore the performance and advantages/disadvantages of using unconditionally stable explicit super time-stepping (STS) algorithms versus implicit schemes with Krylov solvers for integrating parabolic operators in thermodynamic MHD models of the solar corona. Specifically, we compare the second-order Runge-Kutta Legendre (RKL2) STS method with the implicit backward Euler scheme computed using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) solver with both a point-Jacobi and a non-overlapping domain decomposition ILU0 preconditioner. The algorithms are used to integrate anisotropic Spitzer thermal conduction and artificial kinematic viscosity at time-steps much larger than classic explicit stability criteria allow. A key component of the comparison is the use of an established MHD model (MAS) to compute a real-world simulation on a large HPC cluster. Special attention is placed on the parallel scaling of the algorithms. It is shown that, for a specific problem and model, the RKL2 method is comparable or surpasses the implicit method with PCG solvers in performance and scaling, but suffers from some accuracy limitations. These limitations, and the applicability of RKL methods are briefly discussed. Title: Long-period Intensity Pulsations in Coronal Loops Explained by Thermal Non-equilibrium Cycles Authors: Froment, C.; Auchère, F.; Aulanier, G.; Mikić, Z.; Bocchialini, K.; Buchlin, E.; Solomon, J. Bibcode: 2017ApJ...835..272F Altcode: 2017arXiv170101309F In solar coronal loops, thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) is a phenomenon that can occur when the heating is both highly stratified and quasi-constant. Unambiguous observational identification of TNE would thus permit us to strongly constrain heating scenarios. While TNE is currently the standard interpretation of coronal rain, the long-term periodic evolution predicted by simulations has never been observed. However, the detection of long-period intensity pulsations (periods of several hours) has been recently reported with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/EIT, and this phenomenon appears to be very common in loops. Moreover, the three intensity-pulsation events that we recently studied with the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) show strong evidence for TNE in warm loops. In this paper, a realistic loop geometry from linear force-free field (LFFF) extrapolations is used as input to 1D hydrodynamic simulations. Our simulations show that, for the present loop geometry, the heating has to be asymmetrical to produce TNE. We analyze in detail one particular simulation that reproduces the average thermal behavior of one of the pulsating loop bundle observed with AIA. We compare the properties of this simulation with those deduced from the observations. The magnetic topology of the LFFF extrapolations points to the presence of sites of preferred reconnection at one footpoint, supporting the presence of asymmetric heating. In addition, we can reproduce the temporal large-scale intensity properties of the pulsating loops. This simulation further strengthens the interpretation of the observed pulsations as signatures of TNE. This consequently provides important information on the heating localization and timescale for these loops. Title: Core Dimming Regions as Probes of Magnetic Connectivity and Reconfiguration. Authors: Downs, C.; Titov, V. S.; Jiong, Q.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH12B..05D Altcode: The early onset and evolution of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a process that features essential coupling between the erupting flux-system and the ambient corona. In this presentation we will discuss the deep coronal dimming signatures of three contrasting case-study events, and relate these signatures to the pre-event magnetic configuration. We model each event by inserting a stable flux-rope into the erupting region and then relaxing the configuration with a full-sun zero-beta MHD model. Structural analysis of the magnetic field, including maps of the squashing factor (Q), field line heights, and the overall connectivity can be used to paint a detailed picture of the likely eruption process, including where and why deep dimming features appear. We argue that such features are likely probes of the reconnection process between erupting magnetic flux and surrounding coronal magnetic fields--a process relevant to understanding the dynamic magnetic connectivity of CMEs and flux-ropes in the heliosphere. Title: Data-Driven Models of the Solar Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Caplan, R. M.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSM32A..02L Altcode: MHD simulations of the solar corona using boundary conditions derived from global maps of the photospheric magnetic field have been demonstrated to describe many aspects of coronal structure. However, these models are typically integrated to steady state, using synoptic or daily-updated magnetic maps to derive the boundary conditions. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere. Flux transport models can in principle provide a more accurate specification of the global field distribution, by estimating the likely state of the photospheric magnetic field on unobserved portions of the Sun. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model (Arge et al. 2010) is well suited for this purpose. In this presentation, we describe an approach to evolutionary models of the corona and solar wind, using time-dependent boundary conditions based on ADAPT maps. We discuss how such modeling may capture inherent time-dependent features of the corona, as well as some of the data challenges that arise from this approach. Title: Closed-field Coronal Heating Driven by Wave Turbulence Authors: Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Velli, Marco Bibcode: 2016ApJ...832..180D Altcode: 2016arXiv161002113D To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. To go beyond empirical formulations and to build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate the wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. Our implementation is designed to capture the large-scale propagation, reflection, and dissipation of wave turbulence along a loop. The parameter space of this model is explored by solving the coupled WTD and hydrodynamic evolution in 1D for an idealized loop. The relevance to a range of solar conditions is also established by computing solutions for over one hundred loops extracted from a realistic 3D coronal field. Due to the implicit dependence of the WTD heating model on loop geometry and plasma properties along the loop and at the footpoints, we find that this model can significantly reduce the number of free parameters when compared to traditional empirical heating models, and still robustly describe a broad range of quiet-Sun and active region conditions. The importance of the self-reflection term in producing relatively short heating scale heights and thermal nonequilibrium cycles is also discussed. Title: Radiation Environments for Future Human Exploration Throughout the Solar System. Authors: Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Linker, J.; Riley, P.; Torok, T.; Downs, C.; Spence, H. E.; Desai, M. I.; Mikic, Z.; Joyce, C. J.; Kozarev, K. A.; Townsend, L. W.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSA41B2371S Altcode: Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. The ability to predict when and where large events will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The largest events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups (also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protons accelerated very low in the corona by the passage of coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven compressions or shocks and from flares travel near the speed of light, arriving at Earth minutes after the eruptive event. Whether these particles actually reach Earth, the Moon, Mars (or any other point) depends on their transport in the interplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock. Recent contemporaneous observations during the largest events in almost a decade show the unique longitudinal distributions of this ionizing radiation broadly distributed from sources near the Sun and yet highly isolated during the passage of CME shocks. Over the last decade, we have observed space weather events as the solar wind exhibits extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age and relatively small particle radiation events. We have used observations from LRO/CRaTER to examine the implications of these highly unusual solar conditions for human space exploration throughout the inner solar system. While these conditions are not a show-stopper for long-duration missions (e.g., to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars), galactic cosmic ray radiation remains a significant and worsening factor that limits mission durations. If the heliospheric magnetic field continues to weaken over time, as is likely, then allowable mission durations will decrease correspondingly. Thus, we examine the rapidly changing radiation environment and its implications for human exploration destinations throughout the inner solar system. Title: The Impact of Coronal Jets on the Solar Wind and Magnetic Structures in the Inner Heliosphere. Authors: Lionello, R.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Leake, J. E.; Linton, M. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH53A..06L Altcode: Transient, collimated plasma eruptions, so-called coronal (or X-ray) jets, are observed low in the corona in EUV and soft X-ray bands. They are thought to be triggered by reconnection between closed and open magnetic fields, although their formation mechanisms are not yet fully understood. However, coronal jets are also observed to extend to several solar radii, suggesting that they may provide a still undetermined contribution to the solar wind. We simulate coronal jets with our "thermodynamic" full MHD model of the solar corona by driving the emergence of a magnetic flux rope into an open coronal magnetic field. We study the impact of jets to the solar wind by varying the field strength of the emerging flux rope, and we follow the propagation of ejected magnetic structures into the inner heliosphere. Title: Sun-to-Earth MHD Modeling of Powerful Solar Eruptions Authors: Torok, T.; Downs, C.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Riley, P.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH14A..05T Altcode: Large solar eruptions that produce strong flares and powerful coronal mass ejections are the main driver of space weather disturbances close to the Earth. One of the main goals of numerical simulations of such events is therefore to reproduce their in-situ signatures at 1 AU.This requires a sophisticated model of the pre-eruptive configuration, the initiation and early evolution of the eruption, and the large-scale magnetic and plasma environment in which the eruption propagates. We have been conducting magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations that comply with these requirements. We first produce a steady-state MHD solution of the background corona that incorporates photospheric magnetic field measurements, realistic energy transfer in the corona, and the solar wind. We then use the recently developed, modified flux-rope model by Titov et al. to insert a stable flux rope into the source region of the eruption, while preserving the original magnetogram. Several instances of the model can be combined to account for source regions with a highly curved and elongated polarity inversion line (PIL). The eruption is then initiated by imposing plasma flows that slowly converge towards the PIL. Finally, we propagate the eruption to Earth, by coupling the coronal simulation to our heliospheric MHD code. In this presentation we illustrate our method for the famous "Bastille Day" event of July 14, 2000, which produced an X5.7 flare, a fast halo CME, andan intense geomagnetic storm. We assess the quality of the simulation by comparing synthetic satellite images with the observations, and we discuss how well it reproduces the in-situ measurements at 1 AU. We also briefly present our ongoing modeling effort for the more recent event of July 12, 2012, which was observed in great detail all the way from Sun to Earth. Title: A Thin-Flux-Rope Approximation as a Basis for Modeling of Pre- and Post-Eruptive Magnetic Configurations Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH13C2313T Altcode: Many existing models of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) assume a key role of magnetic flux ropes in these phenomena. It is therefore important to have efficient methods for constructing flux-rope configurations consistent with the observed photospheric magnetic data and morphology of CMEs. As our new step in this direction, we propose an analytical formulation that succinctly represents the magnetic field of a thin flux rope, which has an axis of arbitrary shape and a circular cross-section with the diameter slowly varying along the axis. This representation implies also that the flux rope carries axial current I and axial flux F, so that the respective magnetic field is a curl of the sum of toroidal and poloidal vector potentials proportional to I and F, respectively. Each of the two potentials is individually expressed in terms of a modified Biot-Savart law with separate kernels, both regularized at the rope axis. We argue that the proposed representation is flexible enough to be used in MHD simulations for initializing pre-eruptive configurations in the low corona or post-eruptive configurations (interplanetary CMEs) in the heliosphere. We discuss the potential advantages of our approach, and the subsequent steps to be performed, to develop a fully operative and highly competitive method compared to existing methods. Research supported by NSF, NASA's HSR and LWS Programs, and AFOSR. Title: Q-Maps: A New Synoptic Data Product for Investigating Dynamic Coronal Connectivity Authors: Sun, X.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Liu, Y.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH13C2312S Altcode: The "squashing degree" Q parameter characterizes the local divergence of nearby magnetic field lines. It highlights separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces associated with the structural features of the magnetic field, such as null, bald-patch, and minimum points. These surfaces bound distinct flux systems and accommodate their evolution through magnetic reconnection. Its utility for understanding the magnetic configuration of the corona as it relates to space-weather activity has been demonstrated by many recent works. Here we describe a new data product: synoptic Q-maps using Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data since May 2010 as input. For global-scale field, we regularly compute 2D Q-maps at various heights based on a high-resolution potential field source surface (PFSS) model. At the upper boundary, these maps intuitively demonstrate the expansion of coronal holes, outlining their boundaries formed by streamers and pseudo-streamers. At lower heights, they additionally reveal an intricate network of closed (quasi-)separatrix surfaces that can also be involved in the multi-scale coronal dynamics driven by solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind. Future work includes calculations with global MHD models, using local active region models, and data visualization. The Q-maps will be available on the SDO/JSOC website and via the Virtual Solar Observatory. Title: Tracking Changes in Magnetic Topology in MHD Simulations Authors: Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Downs, C. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH43B2570M Altcode: The topology of the coronal magnetic field plays a key role in the properties of the corona and the source of the slow solar wind. The concept of slip-back mapping (Titov et al. 2009) has been applied to detect open, closed, and disconnected flux systems formed by reconnection of coronal magnetic fields during a given time interval. In particular, this technique can identify regions where closed magnetic field lines became open (e.g., via interchange reconnection), and conversely, where open field lines became closed. We will describe the application of this technique to the analysis of 3D MHD simulations (including those of coronal jets and the propagation of "blobs" in the solar wind). Research supported by NASA's Living With a Star Program. Title: The Wide-Field Imager for Solar Probe Plus (WISPR) Authors: Vourlidas, Angelos; Howard, Russell A.; Plunkett, Simon P.; Korendyke, Clarence M.; Thernisien, Arnaud F. R.; Wang, Dennis; Rich, Nathan; Carter, Michael T.; Chua, Damien H.; Socker, Dennis G.; Linton, Mark G.; Morrill, Jeff S.; Lynch, Sean; Thurn, Adam; Van Duyne, Peter; Hagood, Robert; Clifford, Greg; Grey, Phares J.; Velli, Marco; Liewer, Paulett C.; Hall, Jeffrey R.; DeJong, Eric M.; Mikic, Zoran; Rochus, Pierre; Mazy, Emanuel; Bothmer, Volker; Rodmann, Jens Bibcode: 2016SSRv..204...83V Altcode: 2015SSRv..tmp....8V; 2015SSRv..tmp...66B The Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe Plus (WISPR) is the sole imager aboard the Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission scheduled for launch in 2018. SPP will be a unique mission designed to orbit as close as 7 million km (9.86 solar radii) from Sun center. WISPR employs a 95 radial by 58 transverse field of view to image the fine-scale structure of the solar corona, derive the 3D structure of the large-scale corona, and determine whether a dust-free zone exists near the Sun. WISPR is the smallest heliospheric imager to date yet it comprises two nested wide-field telescopes with large-format (2 K × 2 K) APS CMOS detectors to optimize the performance for their respective fields of view and to minimize the risk of dust damage, which may be considerable close to the Sun. The WISPR electronics are very flexible allowing the collection of individual images at cadences up to 1 second at perihelion or the summing of multiple images to increase the signal-to-noise when the spacecraft is further from the Sun. The dependency of the Thomson scattering emission of the corona on the imaging geometry dictates that WISPR will be very sensitive to the emission from plasma close to the spacecraft in contrast to the situation for imaging from Earth orbit. WISPR will be the first `local' imager providing a crucial link between the large-scale corona and the in-situ measurements. Title: The Contribution of Coronal Jets to the Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, R.; Török, T.; Titov, V. S.; Leake, J. E.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Linton, M. G. Bibcode: 2016ApJ...831L...2L Altcode: 2016arXiv161003134L Transient collimated plasma eruptions in the solar corona, commonly known as coronal (or X-ray) jets, are among the most interesting manifestations of solar activity. It has been suggested that these events contribute to the mass and energy content of the corona and solar wind, but the extent of these contributions remains uncertain. We have recently modeled the formation and evolution of coronal jets using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code with thermodynamics in a large spherical domain that includes the solar wind. Our model is coupled to 3D MHD flux-emergence simulations, I.e., we use boundary conditions provided by such simulations to drive a time-dependent coronal evolution. The model includes parametric coronal heating, radiative losses, and thermal conduction, which enables us to simulate the dynamics and plasma properties of coronal jets in a more realistic manner than done so far. Here, we employ these simulations to calculate the amount of mass and energy transported by coronal jets into the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Based on observed jet-occurrence rates, we then estimate the total contribution of coronal jets to the mass and energy content of the solar wind to (0.4-3.0)% and (0.3-1.0)%, respectively. Our results are largely consistent with the few previous rough estimates obtained from observations, supporting the conjecture that coronal jets provide only a small amount of mass and energy to the solar wind. We emphasize, however, that more advanced observations and simulations (including parametric studies) are needed to substantiate this conjecture. Title: An Investigation of Time Lag Maps Using Three-dimensional Simulations of Highly Stratified Heating Authors: Winebarger, Amy R.; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Mok, Yung Bibcode: 2016ApJ...831..172W Altcode: The location and frequency of coronal energy release provide a significant constraint on the coronal heating mechanism. The evolution of the intensity observed in coronal structures found from time lag analysis of Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) data has been used to argue that heating must occur sporadically. Recently, we have demonstrated that quasi-steady, highly stratified (footpoint) heating can produce results qualitatively consistent with the evolution of observed coronal structures. The goals of this paper are to demonstrate that time lag analysis of 3D simulations of footpoint heating are qualitatively consistent with time lag analysis of observations and to use the 3D simulations to further understand whether time lag analysis is a useful tool in defining the evolution of coronal structures. We find the time lag maps generated from simulated data are consistent with the observed time lag maps. We next investigate several example points. In some cases, the calculated time lag reflects the evolution of a unique loop along the line of sight, though there may be additional evolving structures along the line of sight. We confirm that using the multi-peak AIA channels can produce time lags that are difficult to interpret. We suggest using a different high temperature channel, such as an X-ray channel. Finally, we find that multiple evolving structures along the line of sight can produce time lags that do not represent the physical properties of any structure along the line of sight, although the cross-correlation coefficient of the lightcurves is high. Considering the projected geometry of the loops may reduce some of the line-of-sight confusion. Title: Are Dynamical Sources Essential for the Production of the Ambient Solar Wind? Authors: Linker, Jon; Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Titov, Viacheslav; Caplan, Ronald; Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2016usc..confE..70L Altcode: At a basic level, the large structure of the solar corona and its connection to the solar wind has been known for many years. In the classic (near-solar minimum) picture, the slow solar wind is associated with the streamer belt at low latitudes, while the fast solar wind arises from coronal holes at higher latitudes. At a deeper level, important aspects of this connection still puzzle us. One such controversy is the origin of the slow solar wind. One group of theories assume that the slow wind primarily arises quasi-statically from regions of large expansion factor near the boundaries of coronal holes, while a contrasting set of theories argue that the slow solar wind is primarily dynamic in origin and involves the reconnection and exchange of open and closed fields. In this talk, we describe evidence for both sets of theories, and ongoing and future work that may help to resolve this question. Work supported by NASA, NSF and AFOSR. Title: Long-period Intensity Pulsations as the Manifestation of the Heating Stratification and Timescale in Coronal Loops Authors: Froment, Clara; Auchère, Frédéric; Aulanier, Guillaume; Mikić, Zoran; Bocchialini, Karine; Buchlin, Eric; Solomon, Jacques Bibcode: 2016usc..confE..47F Altcode: In solar coronal loops, thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) is a phenomenon that can occur when the heating is both highly-stratified and quasi-constant. Unambiguous observational identification of TNE would thus permit to strongly constrain heating scenarios. Up to now, while TNE is the standard interpretation of coronal rain, it was not believed to happen commonly in warm coronal loops. Recently, the detection of long-period intensity pulsations (periods of several hours) has been reported with SoHO/EIT. This phenomenon appears to be very common in loops (Auchère et al. 2014). In Froment et al. 2015, three intensity-pulsation events studied with SDO/AIA, show strong evidence for TNE in warm loops. We use realistic loop geometries from LFFF extrapolations for one of these events are used as input to a 1D hydrodynamic simulation of TNE. A highly-stratified heating function is chosen to reproduce the observed period of pulsation and temperature of the loops. With these conditions, the heating function has to be asymmetric. The magnetic topology of the LFFF extrapolations points to the presence of sites of preferred reconnection at one footpoint, supporting the presence of asymmetric heating. We compared the properties of the simulated loop with the properties deduced from observations. We found that the 1D hydrodynamic simulation can reproduce the large temporal scale intensity properties of the pulsating loops (Froment et al. 2016, submitted). This simulation further strengthen the interpretation of the observed pulsations as signatures of TNE. This implies that the heating for these loops is highly-stratified and that the frequency of the heating events must be high compared to the typical cooling time. Title: The Thermodynamics of Coronal Jets and Their Contribution to the Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Török, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; James E.; Linton, Mark Bibcode: 2016usc..confE..11L Altcode: Coronal (or X-ray) jets are transient, collimated plasma eruptions that are observed low in the corona in EUV and soft X-ray bands. It is widely accepted that they are triggered by reconnection between closed and open magnetic fields, but their detailed formation mechanisms are still under debate. Since coronal jets are often seen to extend to several solar radii, it has been suggested that they may contribute to powering the solar wind, but the amount of this contribution remains largely uncertain. Here we present the first MHD simulations of coronal jets that include the solar wind and a realistic description of the energy transfer in the corona ("thermodynamic MHD"). The evolution in our model is driven by the emergence of a magnetic flux rope into an open magnetic field. We find different types of jets in our simulations, and discuss their respective formation mechanisms, morphologies, and emission properties. We also analyze their energy and mass contributions to the solar wind, and compare them with existing estimations obtained from observations. Title: The non-equilibrium ionization modeling of the CME in a 3D simulated model Authors: Shen, Chengcai; Raymond, John C.; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Reeves, Katharine K. Bibcode: 2016shin.confE..47S Altcode: Non-equilibrium ionization is important in astrophysical environments where the thermodynamical time scale is shorter than the ionization or recombination time scales. To understand the observational properties of the corona mass ejection(CME), it is important to analyze the non-equilibrium ionization properties. In this work, we perform post-processing time-dependent ionization calculations for a three-dimensional CME model developed by Predictive Sciences Inc., and present the ionic charge state composition structure derived from this calculation. Using the plasma temperature, density, and velocity distributions provide by the MHD simulation, we trace the motion of plasma in a Lagrangian framework and solve time-dependent ionization equations. We then construct three-dimensional spatial distributions of ionic charge states for several chemical elements including carbon, oxygen, silicon and iron that are typically observed in CME plasma. Title: Field Line Structure of Separatrix and Qausi-Separatrix Magnetic Surfaces in the Solar Corona Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikić, Zoran; Downs, Cooper; Török, Tibor; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2016shin.confE.132T Altcode: The analysis of the magnetic field topology provides a key framework for understanding complex phenomena in the solar atmosphere and other cosmic plasmas where the magnetic field plays an active role. This analysis is facilitated by the calculation of the so-called squashing factor Q on the surfaces that bound or cross the magnetic configuration under study. The Q-factor is a dimensionless quantity that characterizes the divergence of the field lines on the way between their boundary end points. For realistic configurations, the Q-maps reveal intricate networks of high-Q lines, which are, in turn, the cross-sections of separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces present in the magnetic configuration.

The sheer complexity of Q-maps can often be difficult to interpret. To mitigate this problem, we have developed a new technique that allows one to efficiently compute the field line structure of the (quasi-)separatrix surfaces by starting from their high-Q lines. The underlying algorithm iteratively determines sets of field-line pairs that bracket null, minimum, and bald-patch points. Convergence of the algorithm towards the high-Q line on either side automatically yields approximation of the (quasi-)separatrix surfaces. We demonstrate the outstanding capabilities of this technique by reconstructing the magnetic topology for a number of on-going projects at Predictive Science Inc., which include coronal mass ejections, streamers, streamer blobs, pseudo-streamers, and coronal jets.

Research supported by NSF/SHINE and NSF/FESD, and by NASAś HSR and LWS Programs. Title: Q-Maps: A New Synoptic Data Product for Investigating Dynamic Coronal Connectivity Authors: Sun, Xudong; Hoeksema, Jon Todd; Liu, Yang; Mikic, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav Bibcode: 2016SPD....47.1011S Altcode: The "squashing degree" Q parameter characterizes the local divergence of nearby magnetic field lines. It naturally highlights topological features such as null points, separatrices, and quasi-separatrices where reconnection preferably takes place. Its utility for understanding the magnetic configuration of the corona as it relates to space-weather activity has been demonstrated by many recent works. Here we describe a new data product: synoptic Q-maps using Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data since May 2010 as input. For global-scale field, we regularly compute 2D Q-maps at various heights based on a high-resolution potential field source surface (PFSS) model. At the upper boundary, these maps intuitively demonstrate the expansion of coronal holes, outlining their boundaries formed by streamers and pseudo-streamers. At lower heights, they additionally reveal an intricate network of closed (quasi-)separatrix surfaces that can also be involved in the multi-scale coronal dynamics driven by solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind. Future work includes calculations with global MHD models, using local active region models, and data visualization. The Q-maps will be available on the SDO/JSOC website and via the Virtual Solar Observatory. Title: The Contribution of Jets to Coronal and Solar Wind Energetics: MHD Simulations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Leake, James E.; Linton, Mark Bibcode: 2016SPD....4740202L Altcode: Transient collimated plasma eruptions in the corona, commonly known as coronal jets, are among the most interesting manifestations of solar activity.We use the 3D MHD model with thermodynamics developed at PSI to investigate the origin, dynamics, and plasma properties of coronal jets.Our model is coupled with 3D MHD flux emergence simulations, i.e, we use boundary conditions provided by such simulations to drive a time-dependent coronal evolution. It includes parametric coronal heating, radiative losses, and thermal conduction in the energy equations.This enables us to simulate the energy transfer in coronal jets in a more realistic manner than done so far and to study the amount of energy and mass transported by these phenomena into the higher corona and inner heliosphere. We discuss our results and compare them with previous estimations obtained from observations. Title: Modeling Jets in the Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Torok, Tibor; Lionello, Roberto; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Leake, James E.; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Linton, Mark G. Bibcode: 2016EGUGA..18.2692T Altcode: 2015arXiv151109350T Coronal jets are transient, collimated eruptions that occur in regions of open or semi-open magnetic fields in the solar corona. Our understanding of these events has significantly improved in recent years, owing to improved observational capabilities and numerical simulations. Yet, several important questions concerning coronal jets remain largely unanswered. For example: What exactly are the physical mechanisms that heat and accelerate the plasma? And to what extent do jets contribute to the heating of the corona and in providing mass and energy to the fast solar wind? Here we present a "new generation" of coronal-jet simulations that will allow us to address such questions in more detail than before. In contrast to previous simulations, our code models the large-scale corona in a spherical domain, uses an advanced description of the energy transfer in the corona ("thermodynamic MHD"), and includes the solar wind. As a first application, we consider a purely radial coronal magnetic field and a simple coronal heating function that decreases exponentially with height above the surface. We produce so-called standard and blowout jets by continuously driving the system at the lower boundary with data extracted from flux-emergence simulations. We discuss the formation, dynamics, and evolution of the jets, as well as their contribution to coronal heating and the solar wind. Title: Modeling Jets in the Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Török, T.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Leake, J. E.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Linton, M. G. Bibcode: 2016ASPC..504..185T Altcode: Coronal jets are transient, collimated eruptions that occur in regions of predominantly open magnetic field in the solar corona. Our understanding of these events has greatly evolved in recent years but several open questions, such as the contribution of coronal jets to the solar wind, remain. Here we present an overview of the observations and numerical modeling of coronal jets, followed by a brief description of "next-generation" simulations that include an advanced description of the energy transfer in the corona ("thermodynamic MHD"), large spherical computational domains, and the solar wind. These new models will allow us to address some of the open questions. Title: Can Large Time Delays Observed in Light Curves of Coronal Loops Be Explained in Impulsive Heating? Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Alexander, Caroline E.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2016ApJ...818..129L Altcode: 2015arXiv151206146L The light curves of solar coronal loops often peak first in channels associated with higher temperatures and then in those associated with lower temperatures. The delay times between the different narrowband EUV channels have been measured for many individual loops and recently for every pixel of an active region observation. The time delays between channels for an active region exhibit a wide range of values. The maximum time delay in each channel pair can be quite large, I.e., >5000 s. These large time delays make-up 3%-26% (depending on the channel pair) of the pixels where a trustworthy, positive time delay is measured. It has been suggested that these time delays can be explained by simple impulsive heating, I.e., a short burst of energy that heats the plasma to a high temperature, after which the plasma is allowed to cool through radiation and conduction back to its original state. In this paper, we investigate whether the largest observed time delays can be explained by this hypothesis by simulating a series of coronal loops with different heating rates, loop lengths, abundances, and geometries to determine the range of expected time delays between a set of four EUV channels. We find that impulsive heating cannot address the largest time delays observed in two of the channel pairs and that the majority of the large time delays can only be explained by long, expanding loops with photospheric abundances. Additional observations may rule out these simulations as an explanation for the long time delays. We suggest that either the time delays found in this manner may not be representative of real loop evolution, or that the impulsive heating and cooling scenario may be too simple to explain the observations, and other potential heating scenarios must be explored. Title: A Three-dimensional Model of Active Region 7986: Comparison of Simulations with Observations Authors: Mok, Yung; Mikić, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2016ApJ...817...15M Altcode: In the present study, we use a forward modeling method to construct a 3D thermal structure encompassing active region 7986 of 1996 August. The extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emissions are then computed and compared with observations. The heating mechanism is inspired by a theory on Alfvén wave turbulence dissipation. The magnetic structure is built from a Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/MDI magnetogram and an estimated torsion parameter deduced from observations. We found that the solution to the equations in some locations is in a thermal nonequilibrium state. The time variation of the density and temperature profiles leads to time dependent emissions, which appear as thin, loop-like structures with uniform cross-section. Their timescale is consistent with the lifetime of observed coronal loops. The dynamic nature of the solution also leads to plasma flows that resemble observed coronal rain. The computed EUV emissions from the coronal part of the fan loops and the high loops compare favorably with SOHO/EIT observations in a quantitative comparison. However, the computed emission from the lower atmosphere is excessive compared to observations, a symptom common to many models. Some factors for this discrepancy are suggested, including the use of coronal abundances to compute the emissions and the neglect of atmospheric opacity effects. Title: Fast Wave Trains Associated with Solar Eruptions: Insights from 3D Thermodynamic MHD Simulations Authors: Downs, C.; Liu, W.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Ofman, L. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH22A..06D Altcode: EUV imaging observations during the SDO/AIA era have provided new insights into a variety of wave phenomena occurring in the low solar corona. One example is the observation of quasi-periodic, fast-propagating wave trains that are associated with solar eruptions, including flares and CMEs. While there has been considerable progress in understanding such waves from both an observational and theoretical perspective, it remains a challenge to pin down their physical origin. In this work, we detail our results from a case-study 3D thermodynamic MHD simulation of a coronal mass ejection where quasi-periodic wave trains are generated during the simulated eruption. We find a direct correlation between the onset of non-steady reconnection in the flare current sheet and the generation of quasi-periodic wave train signatures when patchy, collimated downflows interact with the flare arcade. Via forward modeling of SDO/AIA observables, we explore how the appearance of the wave trains is affected by line-of-sight integration and the multi-thermal nature of the coronal medium. We also examine how the wave trains themselves are channeled by natural waveguides formed in 3D by the non-uniform background magnetic field. While the physical association of the reconnection dynamics to the generation of quasi-periodic wave trains appears to be a compelling result, unanswered questions posed from recent observations as well as future prospects will be discussed. Title: Thermodynamic MHD Simulations of Jets in the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere Authors: Lionello, R.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Leake, J. E.; Linton, M. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH11F..02L Altcode: Coronal jets are transient, collimated plasma ejections that occur predominantly in coronal holes and are observed in EUV, soft X-ray, and occasionally in white-light coronagraphs. While these intriguing phenomena have been studied and modeled for more than two decades, the details of their formation mechanism(s) are not yet fully understood, and their potential role for the generation of the fast solar wind remains largely elusive.

Here we present 3D MHD simulations of coronal jets which are performed in a large computational domain (up to 20 solar radii) and incorporate the effects of thermal conduction, radiative cooling, empirical coronal heating, and the solar wind. These features allow us to model the plasma properties and energy transfer of coronal jets in a more realistic manner than done so far, and to study the amount of energy and mass transported by these phenomena into the higher corona and inner heliosphere.

In order to produce a jet, we consider a simple, purely radial background magnetic field and slowly introduce a magnetic flux rope into the coronal configuration by coupling our model to dynamic flux emergence simulations at the lower boundary of the computational domain. We find two types of jets in our simulations: a very impulsive event reminiscent of so-called blowout jets and a slowly developing, more extended event that produces a long-lasting signature in the corona. We present synthetic satellite images for both types of events and discuss their respective formation mechanisms. Our analysis is supported by a detailed investigation of the magnetic topology for the blowout-type case and of the transport of energy and plasma into the higher corona and inner heliosphere for the long-lasting event. Title: Slip versus Field-Line Mapping in Describing 3D Reconnection of Coronal Magnetic Fields Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH43A2421T Altcode: We demonstrate two techniques for describing the structure of the coronal magnetic field and its evolution due to reconnection in numerical 3D simulations of the solar corona and CMEs. These techniques employ two types of mapping of the boundary of the computational domain on itself. One of them is defined at a given time moment via connections of the magnetic field lines to their opposite endpoints. The other mapping, called slip mapping, relates field line endpoints at two different time moments and allows one to identify the slippage of plasma elements due to resistivity across field lines for a given time interval (Titov et al. 2009). The distortion of each of these mappings can be measured by using the so-called squashing factor Q (Titov 2007). The high-Q layers computed for the first and second mappings define, respectively, (quasi-)separatrix surfaces and reconnection fronts in evolving magnetic configurations. Analyzing these structural features, we are able to reveal topologically different domains and reconnected flux systems in the configurations, in particular, open, closed and disconnected magnetic flux tubes, as well as quantify the related magnetic flux transfer. Comparison with observations makes it possible also to relate these features to observed morphological elements such as flare loops and ribbons, and EUV dimmings. We illustrate these general techniques by applying them to particular data-driven MHD simulations. *Research supported by NASA's HSR and LWS Programs, and NSF/SHINE and NSF/FESD. Title: How Much Energy Can Be Stored in Solar Active Region Magnetic Fields? Authors: Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH52A..08L Altcode: Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and very fast coronal mass ejections usually originate in active regions on the Sun. The energy that powers these events is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. While coronal magnetic fields are not in general force-free, active regions have very strong magnetic fields and at low coronal heights the plasma beta is therefore very small, making the field (in equilibrium) essentially force-free. The Aly-Sturrock theorem shows that the energy of a fully force-free field cannot exceed the energy of the so-called open field. If the theorem holds, this places an upper limit on the amount of free energy that can be stored: the maximum free energy (MFE) is the difference between the open field energy and the potential field energy of the active region. In thermodynamic MHD simulations of a major eruption (the July 14, 2000 'Bastille' day event) and a modest event (February 13, 2009, we have found that the MFE indeed bounds the energy stored prior to eruption. We compute the MFE for major eruptive events in cycles 23 and 24 to investigate the maximum amount of energy that can be stored in solar active regions.Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF. Title: Diagnosing the Properties of the Solar Wind using Magnetic Topology Authors: Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Downs, C.; Linker, J.; Torok, T.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH31C2436M Altcode: Recent work suggests that the topology of the coronal magnetic field plays a key role in the source and properties of the slow solar wind, through the collection of separatrix surfaces and quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) that define the S-web (Antiochos et al. 2011; Linker et al. 2011; Titov et al. 2011). We have accumulated extensive experience with using the squashing factor Q to analyze the underlying structural skeleton of the coronal magnetic field, to identify magnetic null points, separator field lines, QSLs, and separatrix surfaces, and their relationship with the topology of coronal hole boundaries. This will be extended by implementing slip mapping (Titov et al. 2009) to detect open, closed, and disconnected flux systems that are formed due to magnetic reconnection in a coronal model driven by both the differential rotation and evolution of the photospheric magnetic field. This idea is based on using forward and backward differences in time between the field line mapping expected from ideal MHD motions and the actual mapping to diagnose magnetic reconnection. This technique can identify regions in the photosphere where closed magnetic field lines are about to open (e.g., via interchange reconnection), and conversely, where open field lines are about to close. We will use these concepts to develop tools that relate the changing magnetic topology to the properties of the solar wind, to plan and interpret Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter observations. Research supported by NASA's Living With a Star Program. Title: Particle Acceleration at Low Coronal Compression Regions and Shocks Authors: Schwadron, N. A.; Lee, M. A.; Gorby, M.; Lugaz, N.; Spence, H. E.; Desai, M.; Török, T.; Downs, C.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P.; Giacalone, J.; Jokipii, J. R.; Kota, J.; Kozarev, K. Bibcode: 2015ApJ...810...97S Altcode: We present a study on particle acceleration in the low corona associated with the expansion and acceleration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Because CME expansion regions low in the corona are effective accelerators over a finite spatial region, we show that there is a rigidity regime where particles effectively diffuse away and escape from the acceleration sites using analytic solutions to the Parker transport equation. This leads to the formation of broken power-law distributions. Based on our analytic solutions, we find a natural ordering of the break energy and second power-law slope (above the break energy) as a function of the scattering characteristics. These relations provide testable predictions for the particle acceleration from low in the corona. Our initial analysis of solar energetic particle observations suggests a range of shock compression ratios and rigidity dependencies that give rise to the solar energetic particle (SEP) events studied. The wide range of characteristics inferred suggests competing mechanisms at work in SEP acceleration. Thus, CME expansion and acceleration in the low corona may naturally give rise to rapid particle acceleration and broken power-law distributions in large SEP events. Title: A Method for Localization of the Photospheric Tangential Electric Field within Flux-Emergence Regions Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Caplan, Ronald M.; Downs, Cooper; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon Bibcode: 2015shin.confE..38T Altcode: Data-driven MHD simulations of evolving coronal magnetic fields require the knowledge of the electric field at the photospheric boundary. A time sequence of the normal component of the photospheric magnetic field derived from observations allows one to determine only a solenoidal component of the tangential electric field, while its potential component remains free and should be constrained from other conditions. It is not difficult to show that the simplest approach of setting this potential component to zero yields the tangential electric field with unphysical asymptotics at large distances from the regions of emergence/submergence of the photospheric magnetic field. The resulting tangential electric field decays as the inverse square of the distance leading to the appearance of artificial boundary layers at the photosphere in the simulated MHD evolution. To mitigate this problem, we propose a method that enables one to obtain the total tangential electric field as localized as needed while still having the right solenoidal component constrained from the observed time sequence of magnetograms. We demonstrate that the required electric field is expressed in terms of solutions to the stationary 2D heat equation with a spatially-dependent thermal conductivity. The form of this dependence can be chosen so as to properly localize the tangential electric field. The proposed method helps to produce physically consistent boundary conditions for MHD modeling of the evolving coronal magnetic configurations. Title: How Much Energy Can Be Stored in Active Region Magnetic Fields? Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Torok, Tibor; Downs, Cooper; Titov, Viacheslav; Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2015shin.confE..77L Altcode: Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and very fast coronal mass ejections usually originate in active regions on the Sun. The energy that powers these events is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. While coronal magnetic fields are not in general force-free, active regions have very strong magnetic fields and at low coronal heights the plasma beta is very small, making the field (in equilibrium) essentially force-free. The Aly-Sturrock theorem shows that the energy of a force-free field cannot exceed the energy of the so-called open field. If the theorem holds, this places an upper limit on the amount of free energy that can be stored. We investigate the magnetic energy storage and release in full thermodynamic MHD simulations of a major event (the July 14, 2000 'Bastille' day event) and a modest event (February 13, 2009) and relate it to the potential and open field energies for these active regions. We discuss the usefulness of the open field energy as a guide to how much energy can be stored in an active region. Title: Thermodynamic 3D MHD Modeling of Coronal Jets Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Leake, James E.; Linton, Mark G.; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2015shin.confE..32L Altcode: Transient collimated plasma eruptions in the corona, so-called 'standard' and 'blowout' coronal jets, are among the most intriguing manifestations of solar activity. We use the PSI 'thermodynamic' 3D MHD model to improve our understanding of the origin, dynamics, and plasma properties of coronal jets. Our code models the corona by taking into account thermal conduction, radiative cooling, empirical coronal heating, and the solar wind.

These properties enable us to simulate the energy transfer in coronal jets in a more realistic manner than done so far, and to study the amount of energy and mass transported by these phenomena into the higher corona and solar wind. Here we couple our model with 3D MHD flux emergence simulations, i.e, we use boundary conditions provided by such simulations to drive a time-dependent coronal evolution. In particular, we study the topological properties of the magnetic fields associated with jets, how the jet appears in EUV and soft X-ray emission, and its signature in the inner heliosphere. Title: Connecting the evolution and properties of CMEs to their low coronal signatures. A modeling case study of the ‘simple’ Feb 13 2009 event Authors: Downs, Cooper; Török, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Liu, Wei; Linker, Jon; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2015TESS....130401D Altcode: The early onset and and evolution of a CME is a process that features an intimate coupling between the erupting flux-system and the ambient corona. For this reason low coronal signatures that we often observe in the EUV can be used to infer information on the physical nature and evolution of CMEs. In this presentation we will discuss a 3D thermodynamic MHD simulation of the Feb 13 2009 eruption, which occurred from an isolated region during solar minimum and produced well characterized EUV wave and transient coronal dimming features. Using observations as a guide, we simulate the entire evolution of the eruption and global corona, starting from the initial stable configuration through onset and evolution to the post-eruptive reconfiguration. With a particular focus on coronal dimmings, we track how the connectivity of the erupting flux-rope evolves with time and how this relates to corresponding dimmings in synthetic EUV observables. We find that the appearance of the core dimming regions and their migration over time can be related to when and where the erupting rope reconnects with itself and the adjacent arcade. Other aspects related to CME evolution, such as the generation of an EUV wave and quasi-periodic fast-propagating waves are also discussed. Title: The Role of GONG observations in Global MHD Modeling Authors: Linker, Jon; Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Caplan, Ronald M.; Riley, Pete; Mikić, Zoran; Arge, Nick; Henney, Carl Bibcode: 2015TESS....121402L Altcode: The solar magnetic field is an essential aspect of any predictive model of the solar corona. For many years, the magnetic field has been measured most reliably in the photosphere. So-called ``synoptic'' maps of the photospheric field (actually built up from magnetograms acquired over the course of the solar rotation) are or have been available from a number of ground- and space-based observatories, including the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). MHD models of the solar corona have typically used these maps to develop boundary conditions. GONG data is unique among the ground-based observatories in (1) providing magnetogams at a high-cadence (2) providing 24 hour coverage and (3) supplying helioseismic data that can be used to provide estimates of new active regions that have emerged on the far side of the Sun. These three elements are especially important as MHD models attempt to address the time-dependent nature of the corona. In this talk we describe how the combination of flux transport models driven by GONG data, along with estimates of far side active region emergence, can be used in coronal MHD modeling and the advantages gained from this approach. Work supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF. Title: Non-equilibrium Ionization Modeling of Simulated Pseudostreamers in a Solar Corona Model Authors: Shen, Chengcai; Raymond, John C.; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Reeves, Katharine K.; Murphy, Nicholas A. Bibcode: 2015TESS....140903S Altcode: Time-dependent ionization is important for diagnostics of coronal streamers, where the thermodynamic time scale could be shorter than the ionization or recombination time scales, and ions are therefor in non-equilibrium ionization states. In this work, we perform post-processing time-dependent ionization calculations for a three dimensional solar corona and inner heliosphere model from Predictive Sciences Inc. (Mikić & Linker 1999) to analyze the influence of non-equilibrium ionization on emission from coronal streamers. Using the plasma temperature, density, velocity and magnetic field distributions provided by the 3D MHD simulation covering the Whole Sun Month (Carrington rotation CR1913, 1996 August 22 to September 18), we calculate non-equilibrium ionization states in the region around a pseudostreamer. We then obtain the synthetic emissivities with the non-equilibrium ion populations. Under the assumption that the corona is optically thin, we also obtain intensity profiles of several emission lines. We compare our calculations with intensities of Lyman-alpha lines and OVI lines from SOHO/Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) observations at 14 different heights. The results show that intensity profiles of both Lyman-alpha and OVI lines match well UVCS observations at low heights. At large heights, OVI intensites are higher for non-equilibrium ionization than equilibrium ionization inside this pseudostreamer. The assumption of ionization equilibrium would lead to a underestimate of the OVI intensity by about ten percent at a height of 2 solar radii, and the difference between these two ionization cases increases with height. The intensity ratio of OVI 1032 line to OVI 1037 lines is also obtained for non-equilibrium ionization modeling. Title: Magnetic Topology of the Global MHD Configuration on 2010 August 1-2 Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Panasenco, O. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH23A4148T Altcode: It appears that the global magnetic topology of the solar corona predetermines to a large extent the magnetic flux transfer during solar eruptions. We have recently analyzed the global topology for a source-surface model of the background magnetic field at the time of the 2010 August 1-2 sympathetic CMEs (Titov et al. 2012). Now we extend this analysis to a more accurate thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. As for the source-surface model, we find a similar triplet of pseudo-streamers in the source regions of the eruptions. The new study confirms that all these pseudo-streamers contain separatrix curtains that fan out from a basic magnetic null point, individual for each of the pseudo-streamers. In combination with the associated separatrix domes, these separatrix curtains fully isolate adjacent coronal holes of the like polarity from each other. However, the size and shape of the coronal holes, as well as their open magnetic fluxes and the fluxes in the lobes of the separatrix domes, are very different for the two models. The definition of the open separator field lines, where the (interchange) reconnection between open and closed magnetic flux takes place, is also modified, since the structurally unstable source-surface null lines do not exist anymore in the MHD model. In spite of all these differences, we reassert our earlier hypothesis that magnetic reconnection at these nulls and the associated separators likely plays a key role in coupling the successive eruptions observed by SDO and STEREO. The results obtained provide further validation of our recent simplified MHD model of sympathetic eruptions (Török et al. 2011). Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and LWS Programs, and NSF/SHINE and NSF/FESD. Title: Application of a Solar Wind Model Driven by Turbulence Dissipation to a 2D Magnetic Field Configuration Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Velli, Marco; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2014ApJ...796..111L Altcode: 2014arXiv1410.1789L Although it is widely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process, the detailed mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are still not fully understood. Cranmer et al. developed a sophisticated, one-dimensional (1D), time-steady model of the solar wind with turbulence dissipation. By varying the coronal magnetic field, they obtain, for a single choice of wave properties, a realistic range of slow and fast wind conditions with a sharp latitudinal transition between the two streams. Using a 1D, time-dependent model of the solar wind of Lionello et al., which incorporates turbulent dissipation of Alfvén waves to provide heating and acceleration of the plasma, we have explored a similar configuration, obtaining qualitatively equivalent results. However, our calculations suggest that the rapid transition between slow and fast wind suggested by this 1D model may be disrupted in multidimensional MHD simulations by the requirement of transverse force balance. Title: Coronal Modeling with Flux-Evolved Maps: Comparison with Observations Authors: Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Caplan, R. M.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH23C..02L Altcode: MHD simulations of the solar corona rely on maps of the solar magnetic field for input as boundary conditions. These "synoptic" maps (available from a number of ground-based and space-based solar observatories) are built up over a solar rotation. A well-known problem with this approach is that the maps contain data that is as much as 27 days old. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect coronal and heliospheric structure. Flux evolution models can in principle provide a more accurate specification, by estimating the likely state of the photospheric magnetic field on unobserved portions of the Sun. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model (Arge et al. 2010) is especially well suited for this purpose. ADAPT can also incorporate information from helioseismic acoustic images to estimate the emergence of new active regions on the Sun's far side. In this presentation we describe MHD models with boundary conditions derived from ADAPT maps. We investigate the June-August 2010 time period, when there was significant coronal hole evolution observed by the STEREO and SDO spacecraft. We compare model results using ADAPT maps, including those with far side data, as well as models using traditional synoptic maps, to STEREO EUVI and SDO AIA data. Research supported by AFOSR & NASA. Title: Towards a Thermodynamic 3D MHD Model of Coronal Jets Authors: Lionello, R.; Torok, T.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH53D..06L Altcode: Transient collimated plasma eruptions in the corona, so-called "standard" and "blowout" coronal jets, are among the most intriguing manifestations of solar activity. We have begun to use the PSI "thermodynamic" 3D MHD model to improve our understanding of the origin, dynamics, and plasma properties of coronal jets. Our code models the corona by taking into account thermal conduction, radiative cooling, empirical coronal heating, and the solar wind, and it is capable of using observed magnetograms as boundary condition for the magnetic field. Furthermore, the model is coupled with 3D MHD flux emergence simulations, i.e it can use boundary conditions provided by such simulations to drive a time-dependent coronal evolution. These properties enable us to simulate the energy transfer in coronal jetsin a more realistic manner. We will present preliminary results. Title: Particle Acceleration in the Low Corona Over Broad Longitudes: Coupling MHD and 3D Particle Simulations Authors: Gorby, M.; Schwadron, N.; Torok, T.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J.; Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Desai, M. I.; Dayeh, M. A. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH21B4127G Altcode: Recent work on the coupling between the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM, a 3D energetic particle model) and Magnetohydrodynamics Around a Sphere (MAS, an MHD code developed at Predictive Science, Inc.) has demonstrated the efficacy of compression regions around fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for particle acceleration low in the corona (∼ 3 - 6 solar radii). These couplings show rapid particle acceleration over a broad longitudinal extent (∼ 80 degrees) resulting from the pile-up of magnetic flux in the compression regions and their subsequent expansion. The challenge for forming large SEP events in such compression-acceleration scenarios is to have enhanced scattering within the acceleration region while also allowing for efficient escape of accelerated particles downstream (away from the Sun) from the compression region. We present here the most recent simulation results including energetic particle and CME plasma profiles, the subsequent flux and dosages at 1AU, and an analysis of the compressional regions as efficient accelerators. Title: Characterizing a Model of Coronal Heating and Solar Wind Acceleration Based on Wave Turbulence. Authors: Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J.; Velli, M. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH31B..04D Altcode: Understanding the nature of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration is a key goal in solar and heliospheric research. While there have been many theoretical advances in both topics, including suggestions that they may be intimately related, the inherent scale coupling and complexity of these phenomena limits our ability to construct models that test them on a fundamental level for realistic solar conditions. At the same time, there is an ever increasing impetus to improve our spaceweather models, and incorporating treatments for these processes that capture their basic features while remaining tractable is an important goal. With this in mind, I will give an overview of our exploration of a wave-turbulence driven (WTD) model for coronal heating and solar wind acceleration based on low-frequency Alfvénic turbulence. Here we attempt to bridge the gap between theory and practical modeling by exploring this model in 1D HD and multi-dimensional MHD contexts. The key questions that we explore are: What properties must the model possess to be a viable model for coronal heating? What is the influence of the magnetic field topology (open, closed, rapidly expanding)? And can we simultaneously capture coronal heating and solar wind acceleration with such a quasi-steady formulation? Our initial results suggest that a WTD based formulation performs adequately for a variety of solar and heliospheric conditions, while significantly reducing the number of free parameters when compared to empirical heating and solar wind models. The challenges, applications, and future prospects of this type of approach will also be discussed. Title: Verification of Coronal Loop Diagnostics Using Realistic Three-dimensional Hydrodynamic Models Authors: Winebarger, Amy R.; Lionello, Roberto; Mok, Yung; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2014ApJ...795..138W Altcode: Many different techniques have been used to characterize the plasma in the solar corona: density-sensitive spectral line ratios are used to infer the density, the evolution of coronal structures in different passbands is used to infer the temperature evolution, and the simultaneous intensities measured in multiple passbands are used to determine the emission measure distributions. All these analysis techniques assume that the intensity of the structures can be isolated through background subtraction. In this paper, we use simulated observations from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of a coronal active region to verify these diagnostics. The density and temperature from the simulation are used to generate images in several passbands and spectral lines. We identify loop structures in the simulated images and calculate the background. We then determine the density, temperature, and emission measure distribution as a function of time from the observations and compare these with the true temperature and density of the loop. We find that the overall characteristics of the temperature, density, and emission measure are recovered by the analysis methods, but the details are not. For instance, the emission measure curves calculated from the simulated observations are much broader than the true emission measure distribution, though the average temperature evolution is similar. These differences are due, in part, to a limitation of the analysis methods, but also to inadequate background subtraction. Title: 3D Coronal Density Reconstruction and Retrieving the Magnetic Field Structure during Solar Minimum Authors: Kramar, M.; Airapetian, V.; Mikić, Z.; Davila, J. Bibcode: 2014SoPh..289.2927K Altcode: 2014SoPh..tmp...63K; 2014arXiv1405.0951K Measurement of the coronal magnetic field is a crucial ingredient in understanding the nature of solar coronal phenomena at all scales. We employed STEREO/COR1 data obtained during a deep minimum of solar activity in February 2008 (Carrington Rotation CR 2066) to retrieve and analyze the three-dimensional (3D) coronal electron density in the range of heights from 1.5 to 4 R using a tomography method. With this, we qualitatively deduced structures of the coronal magnetic field. The 3D electron-density analysis is complemented by the 3D STEREO/EUVI emissivity in the 195 Å band obtained by tomography for the same CR. A global 3D MHD model of the solar corona was used to relate the reconstructed 3D density and emissivity to open/closed magnetic-field structures. We show that the density-maximum locations can serve as an indicator of current-sheet position, while the locations of the density-gradient maximum can be a reliable indicator of coronal-hole boundaries. We find that the magnetic-field configuration during CR 2066 has a tendency to become radially open at heliocentric distances greater than 2.5 R. We also find that the potential-field model with a fixed source surface is inconsistent with the boundaries between the regions with open and closed magnetic-field structures. This indicates that the assumption of the potential nature of the coronal global magnetic field is not satisfied even during the deep solar minimum. Results of our 3D density reconstruction will help to constrain solar coronal-field models and test the accuracy of the magnetic-field approximations for coronal modeling. Title: A Method for Embedding Circular Force-free Flux Ropes in Potential Magnetic Fields Authors: Titov, V. S.; Török, T.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...790..163T Altcode: We propose a method for constructing approximate force-free equilibria in pre-eruptive configurations in which a thin force-free flux rope is embedded into a locally bipolar-type potential magnetic field. The flux rope is assumed to have a circular-arc axis, a circular cross-section, and electric current that is either concentrated in a thin layer at the boundary of the rope or smoothly distributed across it with a maximum of the current density at the center. The entire solution is described in terms of the magnetic vector potential in order to facilitate the implementation of the method in numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) codes that evolve the vector potential rather than the magnetic field itself. The parameters of the flux rope can be chosen so that its subsequent MHD relaxation under photospheric line-tied boundary conditions leads to nearly exact numerical equilibria. To show the capabilities of our method, we apply it to several cases with different ambient magnetic fields and internal flux-rope structures. These examples demonstrate that the proposed method is a useful tool for initializing data-driven simulations of solar eruptions. Title: Time-Dependent MHD Modeling and Coronal Hole Evolution Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ron; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Henney, Carl; Arge, Charles N. Bibcode: 2014shin.confE..25L Altcode: MHD simulations of the solar corona based on maps of the solar magnetic field have been demonstrated to describe many aspects of coronal structure. However, these models are typically integrated to steady state, using synoptic or daily-updated magnetic maps to derive the boundary conditions. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere. In this presentation, we describe an approach to evolutionary models of the corona and solar wind, using time-dependent boundary conditions. A key aspect of our approach is the use of the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model to develop time-evolving boundary conditions for the magnetic field. In this study, we use a simplified (zero-beta) MHD model to investigate coronal hole evolution during the June-August 2010 time period (Carrington rotations 2098-2099). We compare modeled and observed coronal holes, and discuss implications of coronal hole evolution for the origin of the slow solar wind. We discuss some of the difficulties that arise in creating a time-dependent boundary map using the limited assimilation window available from an earth-based view. Title: Verification of Loop Diagnostics Authors: Winebarger, Amy R.; Lionello, Roberto; Mok, Yung; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2014AAS...22431203W Altcode: Many different techniques have been used to characterize the plasma in the solar corona: density-sensitive spectral line ratios are used to infer the density, the evolution of coronal structures in different passbands is used to infer the temperature evolution, and the simultaneous intensities measured in multiple passbands are used to determine the emission measure. All these analysis techniques assume that the intensity of the structures can be isolated through background subtraction. In this paper, we use simulated observations from a 3D hydrodynamic simulation of a coronal active region to verify these diagnostics. The density and temperature from the simulation are used to generate images in several passbands and spectral lines. We identify loop structures in the simulated images and calculate the loop background. We then determine the density, temperature and emission measure distribution as a function of time from the observations and compare with the true temperature and density of the loop. We find that the overall characteristics of the temperature, density, and emission measure are recovered by the analysis methods, but the details of the true temperature and density are not. For instance, the emission measure curves calculated from the simulated observations are much broader than the true emission measure distribution, though the average temperature evolution is similar. These differences are due, in part, to inadequate background subtraction, but also indicate a limitation of the analysis methods. Title: Thermal Non-equilibrium Consistent with Widespread Cooling Authors: Winebarger, Amy R.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Mok, Yung Bibcode: 2014AAS...22432341W Altcode: Time correlation analysis has been used to show widespread cooling in the solar corona; this cooling has been interpreted as a result of impulsive (nanoflare) heating. In this work, we investigate wide-spread cooling using a 3D model for a solar active region which has been heated with highly stratified heating. This type of heating drives thermal non-equilibrium solutions, meaning that though the heating is effectively steady, the density and temperature in the solution are not. We simulate the expected observations in narrowband EUV images and apply the time correlation analysis. We find that the results of this analysis are qualitatively similar to the observed data. We discuss additional diagnostics that may be applied to differentiate between these two heating scenarios. Title: MHD Modeling of Coronal Hole Evolution Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Caplan, Ron; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Henney, Carl John; Arge, Charles Bibcode: 2014AAS...22432336L Altcode: MHD simulations of the solar corona based on maps of the solar magnetic field have been demonstrated to describe many aspects of coronal structure. However, these models are typically integrated to steady state, using synoptic or daily-updated magnetic maps to derive the boundary conditions. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere. In this presentation, we describe an approach to evolutionary models of the corona and solar wind, using time-dependent boundary conditions. A key aspect of our approach is the use of the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model to develop time-evolving boundary conditions for the magnetic field. In this study, we use a simplified (zero-beta) MHD model to investigate coronal hole evolution during the June-August 2010 time period (Carrington rotations 2098-2099). We compare modeled and observed coronal holes, and discuss implications of coronal hole evolution for the origin of the slow solar wind. Title: Developing 3D CME Models Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Linker, Jon A.; Reeves, Kathy Bibcode: 2014AAS...22421808M Altcode: We describe the development of CME models in three dimensions, including the energization of active regions and the initiation of eruptions via flux cancellation. We contrast the dynamics from idealized zero-beta models with more sophisticated models based on thermodynamic solutions. We explore the effect of the strength of the magnetic field in the active region (or, more appropriately, the amount of smoothing applied to the observed magnetic field), the profiles for transverse field emergence or applied shear, and the nature of the flux cancellation, on the dynamics of eruptions. In particular, our interest is in understanding which effects lead to fast CMEs. Title: 3D Coronal Density Reconstruction and Retrieving the Magnetic Field Structures during Solar Minimum and Maximum Authors: Kramar, Maxim; Airapetian, Vladimir; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2014shin.confE.101K Altcode: Measurement of the coronal magnetic field is a crucial ingredient in understanding the nature of solar coronal phenomena at all scales. We employ STEREO/COR1 data obtained during minimum and maximum of solar activity (Carrington rotations, CR 2066 and 2112) to retrieve and analyze the three-dimensional (3D) coronal electron density in the range of heights from 1.5 to 4 Rsun using a tomography method and qualitatively deduce structures of the coronal magnetic field. The 3D electron density analysis is complemented by the 3D STEREO/EUVI emissivity in 195 A band obtained by tomography for the same CR periods. A global 3D MHD model of the solar corona was used to relate the reconstructed 3D density and emissivity to open/closed magnetic field structures. We show that the locations of density maximum can serve as an indicator of current sheet position, while the locations of the maximum of the density gradient can be a reliable indicator of coronal hole boundaries. We find that the magnetic field configuration during CR 2066 has a tendency to become radially open at heliocentric distances greater than 2.5 Rsun. We also find that the potential field model with a fixed source surface (PFSS) is not consistent with the positions of the boundaries between the regions with open and closed magnetic field structures. This indicates that the assumption of the potential nature of the coronal global magnetic field is not satisfied even during the deep solar minimum. Results of our 3D density reconstruction will help to constrain solar coronal field models and test the accuracy of the magnetic field approximations for coronal modeling. Title: Computing EUV and Soft X-rays Emissions from an Active Region in 3D Authors: Mok, Yung; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2014AAS...22432340M Altcode: EUV and soft X-rays can be a useful tool for plasma diagnostics when applied to an active region. Instead of trying to unfold the plasma properties from the observed emissions, we use a forward modeling method on AR 7986. Namely, we first compute the thermal structure of the active region. The resulting density and temperature profiles are then used to compute the expected emissions, and the synthetic images are compared with observations. Our model reproduces many features of an observed active region, including a dark neutral line, coronal loops, fan loops, etc. The time evolution of the emissions show plasma flows that resemble coronal rains. Quantitatively, the coronal part of the loops compare favorably with observations on all three coronal lines of EIT, although their footpoints are somewhat brighter than observed. The discrepancy may be attributed to the inaccurate abundances used to compared the emissions in the low corona and below.Work supported by the Heliophysics Theory Program of NASA. Title: Characterizing a Closed Field Coronal Heating Model Inspired by Wave Turbulence Authors: Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Velli, Marco Bibcode: 2014shin.confE.156D Altcode: To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. To go beyond empirical formulations and to build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate the wave-turbulence driven (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. To do so, we employ an implementation of non-WKB equations designed to capture the large-scale propagation, reflection, and dissipation of wave turbulence along a loop. The parameter space of this model is explored by solving the coupled WTD and hydrodynamic equations in 1D for an idealized loop, and the relevance to a range of solar conditions is established by computing solutions for several hundred loops extracted from a realistic 3D coronal field. Due to the implicit dependence of the WTD heating model on loop geometry and plasma properties along the loop and at the footpoints, we find that this model can significantly reduce the number of free parameters when compared to traditional empirical heating models, and still robustly describe a broad range of quiet-sun and active region conditions. The importance of the self-reflection term in producing realistic heating scale heights and thermal non-equilibrium cycles is discussed, which has relevance to the heating and cooling signatures often observed in active region cores. Title: Application of a Solar Wind Model Driven by Turbulence Dissipation to a 2D Magnetic Field Configuration Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Velli, Marco; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2014shin.confE.141L Altcode: Solar physicists are still actively investigating the mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind, although it is widely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process.

Cranmer et al 2007 developed a sophisticated, 1D, time-steady model of the solar wind with turbulence dissipation. By varying the coronal magnetic field, they obtain, for a single choice of wave properties, a realistic range of slow and fast wind conditions with a sharp latitudinal transition between the two streams.

Using the 1D, time-dependent model of the solar wind of Cranmer et al. 2007, which incorporates turbulent dissipation of Alfvén waves to provide heating and acceleration of the plasma, we have explored a similar configuration, obtaining qualitatively equivalent results. However, we suspect that the bifurcation between slow and fast wind suggested by this 1D model may not occur in multidimensional MHD simulations. Title: Non-Equilibrium Ionization Calculations in MHD Simulations During a Whole Sun Month Authors: Shen, Chengcai; Raymond, John C.; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Reeves, Katharine K. Bibcode: 2014shin.confE..99S Altcode: Time-dependent ionization is important in astrophysical environments where the thermodynamic time scale is shorter than ionization time scale. In this work, we develop a set of FORTRAN routines to perform fast non-equilibrium ionization calculations based on MHD simulations. Using MHD simulation results, we trace the movements of plasma in a Lagrangian framework, and obtain evolutionary history of temperature and electron density. The time-dependent ionization equations are solved using the eigenvalue method, and an adaptive time-step strategy is used to improve the computational efficiency. We then perform non-equilibrium ionization calculations for a thermodynamic MHD model during Carrington rotation 1913 reported by Mikić et al., and obtain the ion charge composition. We also calculate the intensities of UV lines measured by the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and compare them with observations. Title: Distribution of electric currents in source regions of solar eruptions Authors: Torok, Tibor; Leake, James E.; Titov, Viacheslav; Archontis, Vasilis; Mikic, Zoran; Linton, Mark; Dalmasse, Kevin; Aulanier, Guillaume; Kliem, Bernhard Bibcode: 2014AAS...22431202T Altcode: There has been a long-lasting debate on the question of whether or not electric currents in the source regions of solar eruptions are neutralized. That is, whether or not the direct coronal currents connecting the photospheric polarities in such regions are surrounded by return currents of equal amount and opposite direction. In order to address this question, we consider several mechanisms of source region formation (flux emergence, photospheric shearing/twisting flows, and flux cancellation) and quantify the evolution of the electric currents, using 3D MHD simulations. For the experiments conducted so far, we find a clear dominance of the direct currents over the return currents in all cases in which the models produce significant magnetic shear along the source region's polarity inversion line. This suggests that pre-eruptive magnetic configurations in strongly sheared active regions and filament channels carry substantial net currents. We discuss the implications of this result for the modeling of solar eruptions. Title: Thermal energy creation and transport and X-ray/EUV emission in a thermodynamic MHD CME simulation Authors: Reeves, Kathy; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Török, Tibor Bibcode: 2014shin.confE...2R Altcode: We model a CME using a 3D numerical MHD code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction and radiative cooling in the energy equation. We first develop a global coronal solution (from 1 to 20 Rs) to serve as the initial condition for the CME simulation. The magnetic flux distribution at 1 Rs is produced by a localized subsurface dipole superimposed on a global dipole field, to mimic the presence of an active region within the global corona. The resulting configuration has solar wind emanating from the open field regions, dense plasma in the streamer belt, and hot plasma in the active region. We introduce transverse electric fields near the neutral line in the active region to form a flux rope, then a converging flow is imposed that causes the eruption. We follow the quantities responsible for plasma heating and cooling during the eruption, including thermal conduction, radiation, adiabatic compression and expansion, coronal heating and ohmic heating due to dissipation of currents. We find that the adiabatic compression plays an important role in heating plasma around the current sheet and in the collapsing reconnected loops under the erupting flux rope. Thermal conduction also plays an important role in the transport of thermal energy. We follow the formation and evolution of the current sheet and simulate emissions in the X-ray and extreme ultra-violet wavelengths in order to determine signatures of current sheet energetics in observations from the XRT on the Hinode satellite and the AIA instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Title: A Method for Embedding Circular Force-Free Flux Ropes in Potential Magnetic Fields Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Torok, Tibor; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2014AAS...22421204T Altcode: We propose a method for constructing approximate force-free equilibria in pre-eruptive configurations that locally are a bipolar-type potential magnetic field with a thin force-free flux rope embedded inside it. The flux rope is assumed to have a circular-arc axis, circular cross-section, and electric current that is either concentrated in a thin layer at the boundary of the rope or smoothly distributed across it with a maximum of the current density at the center.The entire solution is described in terms of the magnetic vector potential in order to facilitate the implementation of the method in numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) codes that evolve the vector potential rather than the magnetic field itself. The parameters of the flux rope can be chosen so that its subsequent MHD relaxation under photospheric line-tied boundary conditions leads to nearly exact numerical equilibria. To show the capabilities of our method, we apply it to several cases with different ambient magnetic fields and internal flux-rope structures. These examples demonstrate that the proposed method is a useful tool for initializing data-driven simulations of solar eruptions. Title: Comparative Study of MHD Modeling of the Background Solar Wind Authors: Gressl, C.; Veronig, A. M.; Temmer, M.; Odstrčil, D.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2014SoPh..289.1783G Altcode: 2013arXiv1312.1220G Knowledge about the background solar wind plays a crucial role in the framework of space-weather forecasting. In-situ measurements of the background solar wind are only available for a few points in the heliosphere where spacecraft are located, therefore we have to rely on heliospheric models to derive the distribution of solar-wind parameters in interplanetary space. We test the performance of different solar-wind models, namely Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere/ENLIL (MAS/ENLIL), Wang-Sheeley-Arge/ENLIL (WSA/ENLIL), and MAS/MAS, by comparing model results with in-situ measurements from spacecraft located at 1 AU distance to the Sun (ACE, Wind). To exclude the influence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), we chose the year 2007 as a time period with low solar activity for our comparison. We found that the general structure of the background solar wind is well reproduced by all models. The best model results were obtained for the parameter solar-wind speed. However, the predicted arrival times of high-speed solar-wind streams have typical uncertainties of the order of about one day. Comparison of model runs with synoptic magnetic maps from different observatories revealed that the choice of the synoptic map significantly affects the model performance. Title: Validating a Time-dependent Turbulence-driven Model of the Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Velli, Marco; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Verdini, Andrea Bibcode: 2014ApJ...784..120L Altcode: 2014arXiv1402.4188L Although the mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are still being actively investigated, it is largely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process. Verdini et al. presented a model for heating and accelerating the solar wind based on the turbulent dissipation of Alfvén waves. We first use a time-dependent model of the solar wind to reproduce one of Verdini et al.'s solutions; then, we extend its application to the case where the energy equation includes thermal conduction and radiation losses, and the upper chromosphere is part of the computational domain. Using this model, we explore the parameter space and describe the characteristics of a fast solar wind solution. We discuss how this formulation may be applied to a three-dimensional MHD model of the corona and solar wind. Title: A Multi-Observatory Inter-Comparison of Line-of-Sight Synoptic Solar Magnetograms Authors: Riley, P.; Ben-Nun, M.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Svalgaard, L.; Harvey, J.; Bertello, L.; Hoeksema, T.; Liu, Y.; Ulrich, R. Bibcode: 2014SoPh..289..769R Altcode: The observed photospheric magnetic field is a crucial parameter for understanding a range of fundamental solar and heliospheric phenomena. Synoptic maps, in particular, which are derived from the observed line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field and built up over a period of 27 days, are the main driver for global numerical models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. Yet, in spite of 60 years of measurements, quantitative estimates remain elusive. In this study, we compare maps from seven solar observatories (Stanford/WSO, NSO/KPVT, NSO/SOLIS, NSO/GONG, SOHO/MDI, UCLA/MWO, and SDO /HMI) to identify consistencies and differences among them. We find that while there is a general qualitative consensus, there are also some significant differences. We compute conversion factors that relate measurements made by one observatory to another using both synoptic map pixel-by-pixel and histogram-equating techniques, and we also estimate the correlation between datasets. For example, Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) synoptic maps must be multiplied by a factor of 3 - 4 to match Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) estimates. Additionally, we find no evidence that the MWO saturation correction factor should be applied to WSO data, as has been done in previous studies. Finally, we explore the relationship between these datasets over more than a solar cycle, demonstrating that, with a few notable exceptions, the conversion factors remain relatively constant. While our study was able to quantitatively describe the relationship between the datasets, it did not uncover any obvious "ground truth." We offer several suggestions for how this may be addressed in the future. Title: Distribution of Electric Currents in Solar Active Regions Authors: Török, T.; Leake, J. E.; Titov, V. S.; Archontis, V.; Mikić, Z.; Linton, M. G.; Dalmasse, K.; Aulanier, G.; Kliem, B. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...782L..10T Altcode: 2014arXiv1401.2931T There has been a long-standing debate on the question of whether or not electric currents in solar active regions are neutralized. That is, whether or not the main (or direct) coronal currents connecting the active region polarities are surrounded by shielding (or return) currents of equal total value and opposite direction. Both theory and observations are not yet fully conclusive regarding this question, and numerical simulations have, surprisingly, barely been used to address it. Here we quantify the evolution of electric currents during the formation of a bipolar active region by considering a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the emergence of a sub-photospheric, current-neutralized magnetic flux rope into the solar atmosphere. We find that a strong deviation from current neutralization develops simultaneously with the onset of significant flux emergence into the corona, accompanied by the development of substantial magnetic shear along the active region's polarity inversion line. After the region has formed and flux emergence has ceased, the strong magnetic fields in the region's center are connected solely by direct currents, and the total direct current is several times larger than the total return current. These results suggest that active regions, the main sources of coronal mass ejections and flares, are born with substantial net currents, in agreement with recent observations. Furthermore, they support eruption models that employ pre-eruption magnetic fields containing such currents. Title: Global Magnetic Topology and Large-Scale Dynamics of the Solar Corona Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Torok, Tibor Bibcode: 2014cosp...40E3350T Altcode: We consider the global topology of the coronal magnetic field in relation to the large-scale dynamics of the solar corona. Our consideration includes recent results on the structural analysis of this field determined in two different approximations, namely, potential field source surface model and solar magnetohydrodynamic model. We identify similarities and differences between structural features of the magnetic field obtained in these two models and discuss their implications for understanding various large-scale phenomena in the solar corona. The underlying magnetic topology manifests itself in a variety of observed morphological features such as streamers, pseudo-streamers or unipolar streamers, EUV dimmings, flare ribbons, coronal holes, and jets. For each of them, the related magnetic configuration has specific structural features, whose presence has to be not only identified but also verified on its independence from the used field model in order to reliably predict the impact of such features on physical processes in the corona. Among them are magnetic null points and minima, bald patches, separatrix surfaces and quasi-separatrix layers, and open and closed separator field lines. These features form a structural skeleton of the coronal magnetic field and are directly involved through the ubiquitous process of magnetic reconnection in many solar dynamic phenomena such as coronal mass ejections, solar wind, acceleration and transport of energetic particles. We will pinpoint and elucidate in our overview some of such involvements that have recently received a considerable attention in our ongoing projects at Predictive Science. Title: Time-Dependent Coupled Coronal-Solar Wind-SEP Modeling Authors: Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Schwadron, Nathan; Riley, Pete; Gorby, Matthew; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Torok, Tibor Bibcode: 2014cosp...40E1840L Altcode: Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are important space weather phenomena. SEPs can damage satellite instrumentation, and they can be hazardous for crews of Low Earth Orbit spacecraft and the International Space Station, especially when engaged in extravehicular activity. The acceleration and transport of SEPs is intimately tied to the evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shock waves. In this presentation, we describe an approach to modeling CMEs in the corona and inner heliosphere, together with modeling of SEP acceleration and transport. CMEs are initiated and followed in a realistic corona and solar wind using the MAS MHD code, and SEPs are modeled using EPREM, a 3D energetic particle transport code. The particles are not truly coupled to the MHD solution, in the sense that the electric and magnetic fields from the MHD computation drive the solutions of the focused transport equation. We show initial comparisons with typical CME observations and SEP data, and discuss the strengths and limitations of this approach. Title: Data-Driven Global Coronal Models Authors: Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Henney, Carl; Arge, Charles; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper Bibcode: 2014cosp...40E1839L Altcode: MHD simulations of the solar corona based on maps of the solar magnetic field have been demonstrated to describe many aspects of coronal structure. However, these models are typically integrated to steady state, using synoptic or daily-updated magnetic maps to derive the boundary conditions. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere. In this presentation, we describe an approach to evolutionary models of the corona and solar wind, using time-dependent boundary conditions. A key aspect of our approach is the use of the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model to develop time-evolving boundary conditions for the magnetic field. ADAPT incorporates data assimilation techniques into the Worden and Harvey (2000) flux evolution model, making it an especially suitable candidate for providing boundary conditions to MHD models. We describe initial results and their implications for coronal hole evolution and the origin of the slow solar wind. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Török, Tibor; Riley, Pete; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2013ApJ...777...76L Altcode: We describe a new MHD model for the propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the solar wind. Accurately following the propagation of ICMEs is important for determining space weather conditions. Our model solves the MHD equations in spherical coordinates from a lower boundary above the critical point to Earth and beyond. On this spherical surface, we prescribe the magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature calculated typically directly from a coronal MHD model as time-dependent boundary conditions. However, any model that can provide such quantities either in the inertial or rotating frame of the Sun is suitable. We present two validations of the technique employed in our new model and a more realistic simulation of the propagation of an ICME from the Sun to Earth. Title: Thermal Non-equilibrium Revisited: A Heating Model for Coronal Loops Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Winebarger, Amy R.; Mok, Yung; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2013ApJ...773..134L Altcode: The location and frequency of events that heat the million-degree corona are still a matter of debate. One potential heating scenario is that the energy release is effectively steady and highly localized at the footpoints of coronal structures. Such an energy deposition drives thermal non-equilibrium solutions in the hydrodynamic equations in longer loops. This heating scenario was considered and discarded by Klimchuk et al. on the basis of their one-dimensional simulations as incapable of reproducing observational characteristics of loops. In this paper, we use three-dimensional simulations to generate synthetic emission images, from which we select and analyze six loops. The main differences between our model and that of Klimchuk et al. concern (1) dimensionality, (2) resolution, (3) geometrical properties of the loops, (4) heating function, and (5) radiative function. We find evidence, in this small set of simulated loops, that the evolution of the light curves, the variation of temperature along the loops, the density profile, and the absence of small-scale structures are compatible with the characteristics of observed loops. We conclude that quasi-steady footpoint heating that drives thermal non-equilibrium solutions cannot yet be ruled out as a viable heating scenario for EUV loops. Title: Non-equilibrium Ionization Modeling of the Current Sheet in a Simulated Solar Eruption Authors: Shen, Chengcai; Reeves, Katharine K.; Raymond, John C.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Ko, Yuan-Kuen; Lin, Jun; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2013ApJ...773..110S Altcode: The current sheet that extends from the top of flare loops and connects to an associated flux rope is a common structure in models of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the observational properties of CME current sheets, we generated predictions from a flare/CME model to be compared with observations. We use a simulation of a large-scale CME current sheet previously reported by Reeves et al. This simulation includes ohmic and coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. Using the results of this simulation, we perform time-dependent ionization calculations of the flow in a CME current sheet and construct two-dimensional spatial distributions of ionic charge states for multiple chemical elements. We use the filter responses from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the predicted intensities of emission lines to compute the count rates for each of the AIA bands. The results show differences in the emission line intensities between equilibrium and non-equilibrium ionization. The current sheet plasma is underionized at low heights and overionized at large heights. At low heights in the current sheet, the intensities of the AIA 94 Å and 131 Å channels are lower for non-equilibrium ionization than for equilibrium ionization. At large heights, these intensities are higher for non-equilibrium ionization than for equilibrium ionization inside the current sheet. The assumption of ionization equilibrium would lead to a significant underestimate of the temperature low in the current sheet and overestimate at larger heights. We also calculate the intensities of ultraviolet lines and predict emission features to be compared with events from the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, including a low-intensity region around the current sheet corresponding to this model. Title: The Importance of Geometric Effects in Coronal Loop Models Authors: Mikić, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Mok, Yung; Linker, Jon A.; Winebarger, Amy R. Bibcode: 2013ApJ...773...94M Altcode: We systematically investigate the effects of geometrical assumptions in one-dimensional (1D) models of coronal loops. Many investigations of coronal loops have been based on restrictive assumptions, including symmetry in the loop shape and heating profile, and a uniform cross-sectional area. Starting with a solution for a symmetric uniform-area loop with uniform heating, we gradually relax these restrictive assumptions to consider the effects of nonuniform area, nonuniform heating, a nonsymmetric loop shape, and nonsymmetric heating, to show that the character of the solutions can change in important ways. We find that loops with nonuniform cross-sectional area are more likely to experience thermal nonequilibrium, and that they produce significantly enhanced coronal emission, compared with their uniform-area counterparts. We identify a process of incomplete condensation in loops experiencing thermal nonequilibrium during which the coronal parts of loops never fully cool to chromospheric temperatures. These solutions are characterized by persistent siphon flows. Their properties agree with observations (Lionello et al.) and may not suffer from the drawbacks that led Klimchuk et al. to conclude that thermal nonequilibrium is not consistent with observations. We show that our 1D results are qualitatively similar to those seen in a three-dimensional model of an active region. Our results suggest that thermal nonequilibrium may play an important role in the behavior of coronal loops, and that its dismissal by Klimchuk et al., whose model suffered from some of the restrictive assumptions we described, may have been premature. Title: Probing the Solar Magnetic Field With a Sun-Grazing Comet Authors: Downs, Cooper; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Schrijver, C. J.; Saint-Hilaire, P. Bibcode: 2013SPD....4430503D Altcode: Observations of comets occupy a rich history within Solar and Heliospheric science. Cometary plasma tails probe the solar wind in the inner solar system 0.5-3 AU) and their observations led to its discovery more than half a century ago. Fast forwarding to today, recent observations of sun-grazing comets within the solar corona have opened up a whole new avenue to study the Sun with these striking celestial bodies. Here we present our recent study of the perihelion passage of comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy), which came within 140Mm of the solar surface. Imaged from multiple perspectives by SDO/AIA and the STEREO/EUVI, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations of Lovejoy's tail showed substantial changes in direction, intensity, magnitude, and persistence. To understand this unique signature, we combine a state-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona and a prescription for the motion of emitting cometary tail ions in an embedded plasma. We show how the observed tail motions reveal the inhomogeneous magnetic field of the solar corona, and demonstrate how they constrain field and plasma properties in a region where the coronal plasma is normally not easily observed in EUV. We will also discuss our results in context of the upcoming perihelion passage of comet C/2012 S1 (ISON), expected by many to be a spectacular probe of the near-sun environment. Work supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Thermal Structure of Coronal Loops Authors: Mok, Yung; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2013SPD....44...26M Altcode: We investigated the internal structure of a coronal loop that occurs naturally in our 3D simulation based on an Alfven turbulence heating model. The thermal structure above the active region is in a thermal non-equilibrium state. As the system evolves, it develops a tunnel-like low-temperature region along a small bundle of field lines. The EUV emissivity of this structure also exhibits a coronal loop along this temperature tunnel, which has a nearly uniform cross section. Over the course of about 27 hours solar time, multiple loops occur at discrete locations. Some of them carry high-speed plasma flows. The structure and dynamics of these loops will be analyzed. Title: A Time-Dependent Turbulence-Driven Model of the Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Downs, C.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Velli, M.; Verdini, A. Bibcode: 2013SPD....44...22L Altcode: Although the mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are still actively investigated, it is largely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process. Verdini et al. (2010) presented a model for heating and accelerating the solar wind based on the turbulent dissipation of Alfven waves. We first use our time-dependent model of the solar wind to reproduce Verdini et al's solution; then we extend its application to the case when the energy equation includes thermal conduction and radiation losses, and the upper chromosphere is part of the computational domain.Application of this formulation to our 3D MHD model of the solar corona and solar wind will be discussed. Title: Coronal Modeling and Synchronic Maps Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Downs, C.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. Bibcode: 2013SPD....4430504L Altcode: MHD simulations of the solar corona rely on maps of the solar magnetic field (typically measured at the photosphere) for input as boundary conditions. These "synoptic" maps (available from a number of ground-based and space-based solar observatories), which are perhaps better described as "diachronic," are built up over a solar rotation. A well-known problem with this approach is that the maps contain data that is as much as 27 days old. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect coronal and heliospheric structure. Flux evolution models can in principle provide a more accurate specification, by estimating the likely state of the photospheric magnetic field on unobserved portions of the Sun. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model (Arge et al. 2010), which incorporates data assimilation techniques into the Worden and Harvey (2000) flux evolution model, is especially well-suited for this purpose. In this presentation we describe the use of such "synchronic" maps with coronal models. We compare results using synchronic maps versus the traditional synoptic maps. Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF. Title: Structure of the Coronal Streamers During Solar Minimum and Maximum Authors: Kramar, Maxim; Davila, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2013SPD....44...11K Altcode: We analyze the meridional cross-section of the 3D coronal electron density in the range from 1.5 to 4 R_⊙ obtained by the tomography method during minimum and beginning of maximum of solar activity corresponding to February 2008 and July 2011, respectively. The importance of this coronal region is that it contains the transition from closed to open magnetic coronal structures. At the moment, only STEREO/COR1 provides observation that provides information on the coronal structure in this region. Therefore, analysis of 3D coronal density structure is critical for deriving the position where transition from closed to open magnetic coronal structures occurs. The 3D coronal density in the region of interest has been obtained by applying tomographic techniques to white light coronagraph data obtained by STEREO/COR1 instrument. It is shown that enhanced density structures associated with coronal streamers and pseudostreamers have a tendency to become radially directed at heliocentric distances of about 3 and 2 $R_\odot$ during minimum and maximum of solar activity, respectively. Potential Field models (PFSS) with several different values of the Source Surface position have been analyzed for consistency with the obtained 3D coronal density structure. Title: The challenge in making models of fast CMEs Authors: Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2013AIPC.1539...42M Altcode: It has been a challenge to explain theoretically how fast CMEs (exceeding ~ 1,000km/s) occur. Our numerical models suggest that it is not easy to release enough magnetic energy impulsively from an active region. We have been studying CME models that are constrained by observed magnetic fields, with realistic coronal plasma density and temperature profiles, as derived from thermodynamic models of the corona. We find that to get fast CMEs, the important parameters are the magnetic energy density, the magnetic field drop-off index, and the Alfvén speed profile in active regions. We describe how we energize active regions, and how we subsequently initiate CMEs via flux cancellation. We contrast CMEs from idealized zero-beta models with more sophisticated models based on thermodynamic solutions. Title: Coronal and heliospheric modeling using flux-evolved maps Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Henney, Carl; Arge, Charles N. Bibcode: 2013AIPC.1539...26L Altcode: Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations are now routinely used to produce models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere for specific time periods. These models typically rely on maps of the photospheric magnetic field. Two well-known problems arise from the use of these "synoptic" maps. First, the Sun's poles are poorly observed, which necessarily means that the polar fields in these maps must be reconstructed with a variety of interpolation/extrapolation techniques. Second, the synoptic maps contain data that is as much as 27 days old, whereas the Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving. Flux evolution models can in principle alleviate both these difficulties, by providing physical approximations for the polar fields and by estimating the likely state of the field on unobserved portions of the Sun. In this study, we focus on the polar field problem, and show why typical synoptic maps may underestimate the polar magnetic fields near solar minimum. We use a map created with the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT)model to show that it contains significantly higher polar fluxes than a corresponding synoptic map with polar fields filled by extrapolation. We then show with potential field source-surface (PFSS) models that this map produces higher estimates for the interplanetary magnetic field, which correspond more closely to observations. Title: Which magnetic topologies are favorable for an efficient acceleration and escape of SEPs? Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; Lionello, Roberto Bibcode: 2013shin.confE.129T Altcode: We assume that unstable magnetic flux ropes are the drivers of solar flares and CMEs producing SEPs. The natural sites for the acceleration of SEPs are current sheets and shocks that are formed in the solar corona around these flux ropes during their eruptions. The location of the current sheets and shocks in turn depends on the structure of the background magnetic field ambient to the erupting flux ropes. This raises an important question on which topologies of the background field are favorable for an efficient production and escape of SEPs. We propose that such topologies are inherent to pseudo-streamers, whose lobes often harbor magnetic flux ropes. The pseudo-streamers possess closed and open separator field lines, where current sheets have to be formed whenever the harbored flux ropes start to erupt. These are good preconditions for both the acceleration and transport of SEPs in the open-field corona. In addition, the pseudo-streamers' structure is prone to the generation of sympathetic flux-rope eruptions, which can produce widely separated but well-synchronized beams of SEPs. Title: Coronal models Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2013shin.confE..20L Altcode: Coronal holes are regions that appear dark in EUV and X-ray emission on the solar disk. The general qualitative picture of these regions, that they are magnetically open and are the origin of the fast solar wind, has strong observational support. However, many details of this picture are unclear, such as: What happens at the edges of coronal holes? Are the edges primarily steady structures, or are they opening and closing? Is the open magnetic flux at 1 AU well-accounted for by the magnetic flux emanating from coronal holes? What do disagreements in coronal hole boundaries from different emission lines tell us about there structure? In this talk we will discuss how these questions can be approached from a theoretical and modeling perspective. Title: Integrating physics-based coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in a global MHD model Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Velli, Marco; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2013AIPC.1539...30L Altcode: Although the mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are being actively investigated, it is largely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process. 3D MHD models of the corona and of the solar wind usually employ some phenomenological artifice to accelerate the wind and heat the corona. Within the framework of a 3D full MHD numerical code, we apply the results of Rappazzo et al. [1] on turbulent cascade to heat the closed-field region, and those of Verdini and Velli [2], Verdini et al. [3] on Alfvén turbulence dissipation to accelerate the solar wind. We also compare the properties of the solar wind at 1 A.U. using a formulation based on Verdini and Velli [2], Verdini et al. [3] and one based on Chandran et al. [4]. Title: Empirical Coronal Heating Models Inspired by Wave Turbulence Authors: Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2013shin.confE..83D Altcode: To simulate the energy balance of coronal plasmas on macroscopic scales, we often require the specification of the coronal heating mechanism in some functional form. Traditionally our group has used empirical methods; tailoring analytic functions, such as exponentials, to produce a 3D, multi-thermal corona that is consistent with EUV imaging observations. To build a more physically motivated heating function, we investigate a wave-turbulence dissipation (WTD) phenomenology for the heating of closed coronal loops. We discuss an implementation of non-WKB equations for the propagation and dissipation of wave turbulence designed to capture the basic features of coronal heating. The parameter space of this model is explored for an idealized loop, and for one hundred active region and quiet sun loops extracted from a data-driven MHD solution. We find that by solving auxiliary WTD equations for the coronal heating function along the loop, we can significantly reduce the number of empirical free parameters and still adequately describe a plethora of coronal conditions within a single heating model. This is due to the implicit dependence of the WTD equations on loop properties (both along the loop and at the footpoints). Title: Pseudo-Streamer Structures in the 2010 August 1-2 CMEs: PFSS verses MHD model. Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; Linker, Jon A.; Panasenco, Olga Bibcode: 2013shin.confE.130T Altcode: We upgrade our previous potential field source-surface (PFSS) model of the background magnetic field in the 2010 August 1-2 sympathetic CMEs to a more accurate thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. For this new model, we verify our earlier results on the structure of the large-scale magnetic field, making a similar topological analysis of the field as before. We identify the similarities and differences between the two configurations, particularly, for the eruptive regions with three pseudo-streamers that we have found before. The new study confirms that all these pseudo-streamers indeed contain vertical separatrix surfaces located between two adjacent disconnected coronal holes. Of special interest to us are the magnetic null points and separator field lines belonging to such separatrix surfaces. These topological features exist in both PFSS and MHD models, albeit in different forms. We reassert our earlier hypothesis that magnetic reconnection at these nulls and separators likely plays a key role in establishing a physical connection between the successive eruptions observed by SDO and STEREO. The results obtained provide further validation of our recent simplified MHD model of sympathetic eruptions (Török et al. 2011).

Work supported by Lockheed Martin, NASA's Heliophysics Theory and SR&T programs, and SHINE NSF Grant AGS-1156119. Title: Ensemble modeling of the ambient solar wind Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikič, Zoran Bibcode: 2013AIPC.1539..259R Altcode: Ensemble modeling is a method of prediction based on the use of a representative sample of possible future states. Global models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere are now maturing to the point of becoming predictive tools, thus, it is both meaningful and necessary to quantitatively assess their uncertainty and limitations. In this study, we apply simple ensemble modeling techniques in a first step towards these goals. We focus on one relatively quiescent time period, Carrington rotation 2062, which occurred during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23 and assess the sensitivity of the model results to variations in boundary conditions, models, and free parameter values. We present variance maps, "whisker" plots, and Taylor diagrams to estimate the accuracy of the solutions, which demonstrate that the ensemble mean solution outperforms any of the individual realizations. Our results provide a baseline against which future model improvements can be compared. Title: Probing the Solar Magnetic Field with a Sun-Grazing Comet Authors: Downs, Cooper; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Schrijver, Carolus J.; Saint-Hilaire, Pascal Bibcode: 2013Sci...340.1196D Altcode: On 15 and 16 December 2011, Sun-grazing comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) passed deep within the solar corona, effectively probing a region that has never been visited by spacecraft. Imaged from multiple perspectives, extreme ultraviolet observations of Lovejoy's tail showed substantial changes in direction, intensity, magnitude, and persistence. To understand this unique signature, we combined a state-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona and a model for the motion of emitting cometary tail ions in an embedded plasma. The observed tail motions reveal the inhomogeneous magnetic field of the solar corona. We show how these motions constrain field and plasma properties along the trajectory, and how they can be used to meaningfully distinguish between two classes of magnetic field models. Title: Reconstruction of the solar coronal magnetic field in spherical geometry Authors: Amari, T.; Aly, J. -J.; Canou, A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2013A&A...553A..43A Altcode: Context. High-resolution vector magnetographs either onboard spacecrafts or satellites (HMI/SDO, etc.) or ground based (SOLIS, etc.) now gives access to vector synoptic maps, composite magnetograms made of multiple interactive active regions, and full disk magnetograms. It thus become possible to reconstruct the coronal magnetic field on the full Sun scale.
Aims: We present a method for reconstructing the global solar coronal magnetic field as a nonlinear force-free field. It is based on a well-posed Grad-Rubin iterative scheme adapted to spherical coordinates
Methods: This method is a natural extension to spherical geometry of the one we previously developed in Cartesian geometry. It is implemented in the code XTRAPOLS, which is a massively parallel code. It allows dealing with the strong constraints put on the computational methods by having to handle the very large amounts of data contained in high-resolution large-scale magnetograms. The method exploits the mixed elliptic-hyperbolic nature of the Grad-Rubin boundary value problem. It uses a finite-difference method for the elliptic part and a method of characteristics for the hyperbolic part. The computed field guarantees to be divergence free up to round-off errors, by introducing a representation in terms of a vector potential satisfying specific gauge conditions. The construction of the latter - called here the restricted DeVore gauge - is described in detail in an appendix.
Results: We show that XTRAPOLS performs well by applying it to the reconstruction of a particular semi-analytic force-free field that has already been considered by various authors. Title: Numerical modeling of fast CMEs from Sun to Earth Authors: Torok, Tibor; Downs, Cooper; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2013EGUGA..1512485T Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of space weather disturbances near Earth. The most severe disturbances are caused by fast CMEs with coronal speeds in excess of 1000 km/s and magnetic orientations favorable for interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere. A proper assessment of the impact of CMEs from numerical simulations requires the self-consistent modeling of both CME initiation and its propagation through interplanetary space. Such simulations are very challenging, in particular because of the enormous disparity of scales involved. Here we present our recent attempts to model fast CMEs all the way from Sun to Earth. We first simulate the initiation and propagation of CMEs in the corona using our "thermodynamic" MHD model, which includes empirical coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiation losses. After the initial configuration, consisting of a large-scale dipole field and an idealized active region, is relaxed to a steady-state solar wind solution, we insert a flux rope in magnetic equilibrium into the active region and trigger its eruption by imposing localized converging flows. We perform a small series of simulations, varying the geometry and field strength of the flux rope. The resulting CMEs produce a shock low in the corona and reach peak velocities of up to 3000 km/s, after which they slow down to constant propagation speeds of 1000 km/s or less. We then use our recently developed heliospheric model to simulate the further propagation to 1 AU for one of the model CMEs. Title: Non-Equilibrium Ionization Modeling of the Current Sheet in a Simulated Solar Eruption Authors: Shen, C.; Reeves, K. K.; Raymond, J. C.; Murphy, N. A.; Ko, Y. -K.; Lin, J.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2013enss.confE..44S Altcode: The current sheet that extends from the top of flare loops to an associated flux rope is a common structure in models of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To understand the observational properties of CME current sheets, we generate predictions from flare/CME models to be compared with observations. We use a simulation of a large-scale CME current sheet previously reported by Reeves et al. (2010). This simulation includes Ohmic and coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. Using the results of this simulation, we perform time-dependent ionization calculations of the flow in a CME current sheet and construct two-dimensional spatial distributions of ionic charge states for multiple chemical elements. We use the filter responses from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the predicted intensities of emission lines to compute the count rates for each of the AIA bands. The results show differences in the emission line intensities between equilibrium and non-equilibrium ionization. The current sheet plasma is underionized at low heights and overionized at large heights. At low heights in the current sheet, the intensities of the AIA 94Å and 131Å channels are lower for non-equilibrium ionization than for equilibrium ionization; and at large heights, these intensities are higher for non-equilibrium ionization than for equilibrium ionization. We also calculated the intensity of ultraviolet lines and predicted emission features that could be compared with those events observed by the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, including a low intensity region around the sheet present in the model. Title: Can We Predict the Geoeffectiveness of CMEs? Authors: Linker, Jon; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper; Mikic, Zoran; Torok, Tibor; Titov, Viacheslav; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2013enss.confE..11L Altcode: Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that are propelled outward from the sun, sometimes with velocities greater than 2000 km/s. They are also responsible for some of the most severe space weather at Earth, including geomagnetic storms. Modeling CMEs from Sun to Earth is especially challenging, because of the enormous disparity of scales involved. At the present time, both NOAA SWPC and the CCMC use the WSA-Enlil model with "cone model" CMEs to predict the arrival of possibly geoeffective CMEs at Earth. This model has no embedded magnetic fields in the CME, and therefore does not successfully predict the magnitude and direction of Bz. In this paper, we outline a possible approach to this problem, using coupled coronal and heliospheric simulations of coronal mass ejections. Research supported by NASA, NSF, and AFOSR. Title: Characterizing the Magnetic Topology of Solar Eruptions Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikic, Zoran; Torok, Tibor; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2013enss.confE..15T Altcode: Numerical MHD simulations of solar eruptions have made it possible to model the evolution of magnetic configurations with considerable realism. However, a comprehensive understanding of these complex configurations requires the development of sophisticated techniques to analyze the three-dimensional magnetic field structure. We describe the current state of the art in this kind of analysis, with detailed illustrations from on-going projects at Predictive Science. Separatrix surfaces and quasi-separatrix layers form a structural skeleton of magnetic configurations by dividing them into multiple components with a simple topology. We discuss the principles and capabilities of our techniques for analyzing the structural skeletons in erupting configurations. In particular, we show how these techniques allow one: (1) to identify erupting and non-erupting strands of the flux ropes; (2) to determine the global topological flux cells in which such flux ropes reside, and how they interact in successive eruptions; (3) to calculate evolving magnetic fluxes for each component of these configurations; (4) to relate certain structural features to observational features, such as H-alpha flare ribbons, extreme-ultraviolet dimmings, and X-ray sigmoids in solar eruptions. The ability to compare our results with observations enables us to verify the accuracy of the MHD models and to understand how the coronal magnetic field opens during eruptions. Title: On the application of ensemble modeling techniques to improve ambient solar wind models Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2013JGRA..118..600R Altcode: Ensemble modeling is a method of prediction based on the use of a representative sample of possible future states. Global models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere are now maturing to the point of becoming predictive tools; thus, it is both meaningful and necessary to quantitatively assess their uncertainty and limitations. In this study, we apply simple ensemble modeling techniques as a first step towards these goals. We focus on one relatively quiescent time period, Carrington rotation 2062, which occurred during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. To illustrate and assess the sensitivity of the model results to variations in boundary conditions, we compute solutions using synoptic magnetograms from seven solar observatories. Model sensitivity is explored using (1) different combinations of models, (2) perturbations in the base coronal temperature (a free parameter in one of the model approximations), and (3) the spatial resolution of the numerical grid. We present variance maps, "whisker" plots, and "Taylor" diagrams to summarize the accuracy of the solutions and compute skill scores, which demonstrate that the ensemble mean solution outperforms any of the individual realizations. Our results provide a baseline against which future model improvements can be compared. Title: The Structure and Dynamics of the Corona—Heliosphere Connection Authors: Antiochos, Spiro K.; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav; Zurbuchen, Thomas H. Bibcode: 2013mspc.book..169A Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Pseudo-Streamer Magnetic Topologies in the 2010 August 1-2 CMEs Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J. A.; Panasenco, O. Bibcode: 2012AGUFMSH51A2211T Altcode: We upgrade our previous source-surface model of the background magnetic field in the 2010 August 1-2 sympathetic CMEs to a more accurate thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. For this new model, we verify our earlier results on the structure of the large-scale magnetic field, making a similar topological analysis of the field as before. We identify the similarities and differences between the two configurations, particularly, for the eruptive regions with three pseudo-streamers that we have found before. The new study confirms that all these pseudo-streamers indeed contain vertical separatrix surfaces located between two adjacent disconnected coronal holes. Of special interest to us are the magnetic null points and separator field lines belonging to such separatrix surfaces. We reassert our earlier hypothesis that magnetic reconnection at these nulls and separators likely plays a key role in establishing a physical connection between the successive eruptions observed by SDO and STEREO. The results obtained provide further validation of our recent simplified MHD model of sympathetic eruptions (Török et al. 2011). Work supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and SR&T programs, and SHINE NSF Grant AGS-1156119. Title: The Interaction of Comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) with the Global Solar Corona: Insight and Perspectives from Realistic Thermodynamic MHD Simulations Authors: Downs, C.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Schrijver, C. Bibcode: 2012AGUFMSH13B2255D Altcode: On December 15-16 2011 the perihelion passage of sun-grazing comet C-2011 W3 (Lovejoy) took it perilously close to the sun. Its voyage through the low solar corona was readily observed by the EUV imagers onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the STEREO spacecraft pair. During this time, EUV emission from the cometary tail underwent several significant changes in both intensity and overall inclination and shape, possibly an indication of rapidly changing ambient plasma or magnetic field conditions. To study this phenomenon, we employ a realistic 3D thermodynamic MHD model to obtain a self-consistent picture of the global thermodynamic and magnetic structure of the corona at this time. We use these simulations to examine the ambient plasma parameters along the trajectory and place them in the context of the multi-viewpoint observations, directly connecting the important influence of the global magnetic field structure to comet tail appearance and dynamics. By employing multiple simulations, we demonstrate how such a unique set of observations can be used to probe not only the comet-corona interaction, but also to constrain properties of the coronal plasma and magnetic field. Title: Prediction of the Solar Corona for the 2012 November 13 Total Solar Eclipse Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S.; Torok, T. Bibcode: 2012AGUFMSH33A2218M Altcode: It has become our tradition to predict the structure of the corona prior to eclipses, using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model based on measurements of photospheric magnetic fields on the Sun. We plan to continue this tradition by predicting the structure of the corona for the November 13, 2012 total solar eclipse, using SDO/HMI photospheric magnetic field data. We will predict the structure of the corona, including images of polarization brightness, magnetic field line traces, and images of simulated emission in EUV and X-rays. These images can be compared directly with observations of the total eclipse, as well as observations from SDO/AIA, Hinode/XRT, and STEREO/EUVI. Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and Living With a Star Programs, and NSF/FESD. Title: Using multi-wavelength observations to constrain CME simulations Authors: Torok, T.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J. A.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2012AGUFMSH33E..01T Altcode: The steady growth of computing power now provides the possibility to model coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at different levels of complexity. Present CME simulations range from relatively simple zero-beta calculations, which consider idealized configurations to isolate the basic physical mechanisms at work in CMEs, to semi-realistic "thermodynamic" MHD simulations of specific events that allow us to confront the model results directly with the observations. In this talk, we will discuss the respective benefits of these different approaches. As an example, we will consider the well-known sympathetic eruptions event on 2010, August 1, which our group has been modeling using various degrees of approximation. In particular, we will illustrate how we employed the observations (i) to set up the respective initial magnetic configurations and (ii) to validate the simulation results. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Lionello, R.; Downs, C.; Linker, J. A.; Torok, T.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2012AGUFMSH41B2117L Altcode: Accurately following the propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICME) is very important for determining space weather conditions. These are known to impact the functioning of satellites or create a dangerous environment for astronauts in orbit around the Earth. Here we describe how we simulate with our MHD numerical model in spherical coordinates the propagation of ICMEs from the critical point to Earth and beyond. We first obtain the boundary conditions to apply at the lower boundaries using the results of simulations of coronal mass ejections. These are normally derived from the coronal version of our own model, but any other model that can provide the components of the magnetic field and the velocity, density, and pressure of the plasma can be used. Then we calculate the propagation of the disturbance in interplanetary space. Title: The S-Web Hypothesis: Modeling and Observational Challenges Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2012AGUFMSH52A..01L Altcode: The origin of the slow solar wind is controversial. A successful theory must explain the plasma composition and angular extent of the slow wind, as well as its frequent asymmetry with respect to the heliospheric current sheet. Recently, a new idea has been put forward for the origin of the slow wind, dubbed the "S-Web" model. The name comes from high-resolution MHD calculations that have revealed that coronal hole boundaries are not smooth, but are highly corrugated with a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers. These are regions that are likely to be susceptible to interchange reconnection. In this talk we describe the basics of this idea, how it may explain key features of the slow solar wind, and further calculations/observational tests that may help confirm or refute this idea. Work supported by NASA, NSF, and AFOSR. Title: Non-neutralized Electric Current Patterns in Solar Active Regions: Origin of the Shear-generating Lorentz Force Authors: Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2012ApJ...761...61G Altcode: 2012arXiv1210.2919G Using solar vector magnetograms of the highest available spatial resolution and signal-to-noise ratio, we perform a detailed study of electric current patterns in two solar active regions (ARs): a flaring/eruptive and a flare-quiet one. We aim to determine whether ARs inject non-neutralized (net) electric currents in the solar atmosphere, responding to a debate initiated nearly two decades ago that remains inconclusive. We find that well-formed, intense magnetic polarity inversion lines (PILs) within ARs are the only photospheric magnetic structures that support significant net current. More intense PILs seem to imply stronger non-neutralized current patterns per polarity. This finding revises previous works that claim frequent injections of intense non-neutralized currents by most ARs appearing in the solar disk but also works that altogether rule out injection of non-neutralized currents. In agreement with previous studies, we also find that magnetically isolated ARs remain globally current-balanced. In addition, we confirm and quantify the preference of a given magnetic polarity to follow a given sense of electric currents, indicating a dominant sense of twist in ARs. This coherence effect is more pronounced in more compact ARs with stronger PILs and must be of sub-photospheric origin. Our results yield a natural explanation of the Lorentz force, invariably generating velocity and magnetic shear along strong PILs, thus setting a physical context for the observed pre-eruption evolution in solar ARs. Title: 2010 August 1-2 Sympathetic Eruptions. I. Magnetic Topology of the Source-surface Background Field Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Török, T.; Linker, J. A.; Panasenco, O. Bibcode: 2012ApJ...759...70T Altcode: 2012arXiv1209.5797T A sequence of apparently coupled eruptions was observed on 2010 August 1-2 by Solar Dynamics Observatory and STEREO. The eruptions were closely synchronized with one another, even though some of them occurred at widely separated locations. In an attempt to identify a plausible reason for such synchronization, we study the large-scale structure of the background magnetic configuration. The coronal field was computed from the photospheric magnetic field observed at the appropriate time period by using the potential field source-surface model. We investigate the resulting field structure by analyzing the so-called squashing factor calculated at the photospheric and source-surface boundaries, as well as at different coronal cross-sections. Using this information as a guide, we determine the underlying structural skeleton of the configuration, including separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces. Our analysis reveals, in particular, several pseudo-streamers in the regions where the eruptions occurred. Of special interest to us are the magnetic null points and separators associated with the pseudo-streamers. We propose that magnetic reconnection triggered along these separators by the first eruption likely played a key role in establishing the assumed link between the sequential eruptions. The present work substantiates our recent simplified magnetohydrodynamic model of sympathetic eruptions and provides a guide for further deeper study of these phenomena. Several important implications of our results for the S-web model of the slow solar wind are also addressed. Title: The Structure and Dynamics of the Corona—Heliosphere Connection Authors: Antiochos, Spiro K.; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav; Zurbuchen, Thomas H. Bibcode: 2012SSRv..172..169A Altcode: 2011SSRv..tmp..371A; 2011SSRv..tmp..224A; 2011SSRv..tmp..148A; 2011SSRv..tmp...79A Determining how the heliospheric magnetic field and plasma connect to the Sun's corona and photosphere is, perhaps, the central problem in solar and heliospheric physics. For much of the heliosphere, this connection appears to be well understood. It is now generally accepted that so-called coronal holes, which appear dark in X-rays and are predominantly unipolar at the photosphere, are the sources of quasi-steady wind that is generally fast, >500 km/s, but can sometimes be slow. However, the connection to the Sun of the slow, non-steady wind is far from understood and remains a major mystery. We review the existing theories for the sources of the non-steady wind and demonstrate that they have difficulty accounting for both the observed composition of the wind and its large angular extent. A new theory is described in which this wind originates from the continuous opening and closing of narrow open field corridors in the corona, which give rise to a web of separatrices (the S-Web) in the heliosphere. Note that in this theory the corona—heliosphere connection is intrinsically dynamic, at least for this type of wind. Support for the S-Web model is derived from MHD solutions for the corona and wind during the time of the August 1, 2008 eclipse. Additionally, we perform fully dynamic numerical simulations of the corona and heliosphere in order to test the S-Web model as well as the interchange model proposed by Fisk and co-workers. We discuss the implications of our simulations for the competing theories and for understanding the corona—heliosphere connection, in general. Title: MHD modeling of the solar corona: Progress and challenges Authors: Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete; Titov, Viacheslav; Torok, Tibor Bibcode: 2012cosp...39.1090L Altcode: 2012cosp.meet.1090L The Sun and its activity is the ultimate driver of space weather at Earth. This influence occurs not only via eruptive phenomena such as coronal mass ejections, but also through the structure of the corona itself, which forms the genesis of fast solar wind streams that trigger recurrent geomagnetic activity. Coronal structure also determines the connection of the ambient interplanetary magnetic field to CME-related shocks and impulsive solar flares, and thus controls where solar energetic particles propagate. In this talk we describe both the present state of the art and new directions in coronal modeling for both dynamic and slowly varying phenomena. We discuss the challenges to incorporating these capabilities into future space weather forecasting and specification models. Supported by NASA through the HTP, LWS, and SR&T programs, by NSF through the FESD and CISM programs, and by the AFOSR Space Science program. Title: Corotating interaction regions during the recent solar minimum: The power and limitations of global MHD modeling Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2012JASTP..83....1R Altcode: The declining phase of solar activity cycle 23 has provided an unprecedented opportunity to study the evolution and properties of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during unique and relatively steady conditions. The absence of significant transient activity has allowed modelers to test ambient solar wind models, but has also challenged them to reproduce structure that was qualitatively different than had been observed previously (at least within the space era). In this study, we present and analyze global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions of the inner heliosphere (from 1RS to 1 AU) for several intervals defined as part of a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) interdisciplinary campaign study, and, in particular, Carrington rotation 2060. We compare in situ measurements from ACE and STEREO A and B with the model results to illustrate both the capabilities and limitations of current numerical techniques. We show that, overall, the models do capture the essential structural features of the solar wind for specific time periods; however, there are times when the models and observations diverge. We describe, and, to some extent assess the sources of error in the modeling chain from the input photospheric magnetograms to the numerical schemes used to propagate structure through the heliosphere, and speculate on how they may be resolved, or at least mitigated in the future. Title: Plasmoid Ejection at a Solar Total Eclipse Authors: Koutchmy, S.; Bazin, C.; Berghmans, D.; De Groof, A.; Druckmüller, M.; Tavabi, E.; Engell, A.; Filippov, B.; Golub, L.; Lamy, Ph.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Mouette, J.; Nitschelm, Ch.; Seaton, D.; Slemzin, V. Bibcode: 2012EAS....55..223K Altcode: The existence of coronal plasmoids has been postulated for many years in order to supply material to streamers and possibly to the solar wind (SW). The W-L SoHO C2 Lasco coronagraph observations were made under the 2.2 solar radii (R0) occulting disk to look at the ultimate sources of the SW; EUV imagers are preferably devoted to the analysis of the corona on and very near the solar disk. Here, in addition to eclipse white-light (W-L) snapshots, we used the new SWAP space-borne imager designed for the systematic survey of coronal activity in the EUV lines near 17.4 nm, over a field of view (FOV) up to 2 R0. Using summed and co-aligned images, the corona can then be evaluated for the 1st time up to the limit of this FOV. At the time of the July 11, 2010, solar total eclipse a 20h continuous run of observations was collected, including images taken during eclipse totality from several ground observing locations where W-L data were collected. A plasmoid-like off-limb event was followed using the SWAP summed Title: Magnetic Topology of Pseudo-Streamers in the 2010 August 1-2 Eruption Events Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikic, Zoran; Torok, Tibor; Linker, Jon A.; Panasenco, Olga Bibcode: 2012shin.confE.160T Altcode: A sequence of apparently coupled eruptions was observed on 2010 August 1-2 by SDO and STEREO. The eruptions were closely synchronized, even though some of them occurred very far from each other. Trying to identify a plausible reason for such synchronization, we study the large-scale structure of the background magnetic field. The latter was computed from the photospheric magnetic field observed at the appropriate time period by using the potential field source-surface model.For the resulting configuration, we determine its structural skeleton, which includes all separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces. Analyzing them, we reveal three pseudo-streamers in the regions where the eruptions occurred. Of special interest to us are the magnetic null points and separator field lines associated with these pseudo-streamers. We propose that magnetic reconnection at such nulls and separators played likely a key role in establishing the physical link between the successive eruptions. Work supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and SR&T programs, and SHINE NSF Grant AGS-1156119. Title: Sympathetic Eruptive Events and Pseudostreamers Authors: Panasenco, Olga; Titov, Viacheslav; Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; de Toma, Giuliana; Velli, Marco Bibcode: 2012shin.confE.162P Altcode: Sequences of apparently coupled CMEs triggered by sympathetic eruptions of solar filaments are usually observed when the initial coronal magnetic configuration above the source region contains at least one coronal pseudostreamer. We study in detail an example of such a sympathetic event observed on 27-28 July 2011 by SDO and STEREO. This involved five filaments and caused four individual filament eruptions and one partial eruption. The eruptions were closely synchronized, even though some occurred at widely separated locations. In an attempt to identify a plausible reason of such a synchronization, we study the large-scale structure of the background PFSS magnetic fields, computed from the observed photospheric magnetic field (SDO/HMI) during the appropriate time period. We investigate the magnetic connectivities in these configurations by calculating and analyzing the distributions of the so-called squashing factor at the photospheric and source-surface boundaries, as well as other cross-sections at different heights. This allows us to get a comprehensive understanding of the underlying structural skeleton of the magnetic configuration. In particular, our analysis reveals two pseudostreamer magnetic configurations in the region where the eruptions occurred. Of special interest to us are the magnetic null points and separators located at the intersection of the separatrix domes and curtains of the pseudostreamers. We assume that magnetic reconnection induced by the first eruption at these locations played likely a major role in establishing the postulated link between the different eruptions in sequence. The close relationship between the sympathetic eruptions and pseudostreamer configurations are supported by a statistical study covering the SDO era (2010-2012). Title: Global Thermodynamic MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona in the Context of SDO/AIA Observations. Authors: Downs, Cooper James; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2012shin.confE..98D Altcode: Realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models can serve as powerful testbeds for exploring our understanding of magnetic and thermodynamic processes in the solar corona. An important aspect in their development is the use of observations to characterize model results. In this context we investigate the comparison of observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to a thermodynamic MHD model of the global corona (Lionello et al. 2009), with emphasis on exploiting the unique multi-spectral information available from the AIA observing program. We discuss the implications towards modeling multi-temperature magnetic structures observed in the low corona, and focus on the sensitivity of the AIA observables with respect to the choice of coronal heating parameterizations and magnetic boundary data.Research Supported by NASA and NSF. Title: How Well Do We Understand Solar-Heliospheric Connectivity? Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Titov, Viacheslav; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Cohen, Christina Bibcode: 2012shin.confE..17L Altcode: In the classic picture of the heliospheric magnetic field, magnetic field lines move outward from the Sun and travel eastward along an approximately 45 degree spiral at 1 AU (the exact value determined by the rotation rate of the Sun and the speed of the solar wind). Solar energetic particles propagate along the magnetic field, so when there is a relatively compact source of particles it should be seen in a relatively confined portion of interplanetary space. However, a recent validation study (Macneice et al. 2011) showed that a range of coronal-heliospheric models performed poorly in predicting the source of confined SEP events. Recent observations from the STEREO and ACE spacecraft have also shown that Helium-3 rich SEP events can be observed over a wide range of longitude, even though their origin appears to be localized to a single active region.The S-Web Model (Antiochos et al. 2011, Linker et al. 2011, Titov et al. 2011) hypothesizes that a web of separators and quasi-separatrix layers are present in the coronal magnetic field, and that this web plays an important role in the origin of the slow solar wind. In this presentation, we explore the role that the S-web may play in SEP propagation. We show examples where magnetic field lines originating in or near an active region may have access to a wide range of connectivity, and this could allow particles to propagate in a much larger range of latitudes and longitudes than than would usually be expected. Title: Global energy diagnostics, current sheet formation and reconnection outflow jets in a thermodynamic 3D MHD CME simulation Authors: Reeves, Kathy; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Török, Tibor; Murphy, Nick Bibcode: 2012shin.confE..40R Altcode: We model a CME using a 3D numerical MHD code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction and radiative cooling in the energy equation. We first develop a global coronal solution (from 1 to 20 Rs) to serve as the initial condition for the CME simulation. The magnetic flux distribution at 1 Rs consists of a local subsurface dipole superimposed on global dipole, to mimic the presence of an active region within the global corona. The resulting configuration has solar wind emanating from the open field regions, dense plasma in the streamer belt, and hot plasma in the active region. We introduce transverse electric fields near the neutral line in the active region to form a flux rope, then a converging flow is imposed that causes the eruption. We examine the global energy budget for this simulated eruption, including the magnetic, kinetic, internal and gravitational potential energies, coronal heating, ohmic heating, flow of Poynting flux across the simulation boundaries, and losses due to radiation. These diagnostic are useful in assessing whether such simulations reproduce the characteristics of CME observations. We also follow the formation and evolution of the current sheet and reconnection outflow jets in this model. Title: Modeling the Large-Scale Structure of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere during Carrington Rotations 2058 and 2062 Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Downs, Cooper Bibcode: 2012shin.confE.205R Altcode: Accurate global MHD models can help us understand the basic physical processes that produce and modulate structure in the solar corona and inner heliosphere. In turn, when these models can be routinely run and accurately match in situ observations at Earth, they become capable of near-term ( 4 day) space weather forecasting. In this poster, we summarize the current status of our ambient solar wind modeling effort. The model, CORHEL, is driven by the observed magnetic field in the photosphere, and aims to capture the state of the corona and inner heliosphere during specific time periods of interest at the highest spatial resolutions possible. By including energy transport processes, such as coronal heating, anisotropic thermal conduction, and radiative losses, we can reproduce EUV and X-ray emission and make meaningful comparisons with observations. We compare our model results with both remote solar observations and in situ measurements for Carrington rotations 2058 and 2062 and assess both the advantages and limitations of our techniques. In particular, we employ ensemble modeling methodologies, varying both the input boundary conditions and model formalisms, to quantitatively assess the uncertainty in the model results. We discuss how future improvements both to the model and the input boundary conditions may result in better matches with observations and a greater understanding of the mechanisms that give rise to solar wind structure. Research supported by NASA, NSF, and AFOSR. Title: Modeling the global structure of the heliosphere during the recent solar minimum: Model improvements and unipolar streamers Authors: Riley, Pete; Stevens, Michael; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Luhmann, Janet G. Bibcode: 2012AIPC.1436..337R Altcode: The recent solar minimum, marking the end of solar cycle 23, has been unique in a number of ways. In particular, the polar photospheric flux was substantially weaker, coronal holes were notably smaller, and unipolar streamers were considerably more prevalent than previous minima. To understand the origins of some of these phenomena, we have computed global solutions using a three-dimensional, time-dependent MHD model of the solar corona and heliosphere. In this report, we present a brief overview of a selection of model results, illustrating: (1) how observations are being used to better constrain model properties; and (2) how the model results can be applied to understanding complex coronal and interplanetary phenomena, and, specifically, unipolar streamers. Title: Are Polar Field Magnetic Flux Concentrations Responsible for Missing Interplanetary Flux? Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Downs, C.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Henney, C. J.; Arge, C. N. Bibcode: 2012AAS...22041101L Altcode: Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations are now routinely used to produce models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere for specific time periods. These models typically use magnetic maps of the photospheric magnetic field built up over a solar rotation, available from a number of ground-based and space-based solar observatories. The line-of-sight field at the Sun's poles is poorly observed, and the polar fields in these maps are filled with a variety of interpolation/extrapolation techniques. These models have been found to frequently underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux (Riley et al., 2012, in press, Stevens et al., 2012, in press) near the minimum part of the cycle unless mitigating correction factors are applied. Hinode SOT observations indicate that strong concentrations of magnetic flux may be present at the poles (Tsuneta et al. 2008). The ADAPT flux evolution model (Arge et al. 2010) also predicts the appearance of such concentrations. In this paper, we explore the possibility that these flux concentrations may account for a significant amount of magnetic flux and alleviate discrepancies in interplanetary magnetic flux predictions.

Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF. Title: A New Perspective of Coronal-Loop EUV Emissions Authors: Mok, Yung; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2012AAS...22020206M Altcode: The formation mechanism of coronal loops and why they appear to have uniform cross section have been controversial. In general, the flux tubes of the active-region magnetic field expand in the corona, especially at locations where the field is nearly potential. Because the actual magnetic field, modeled in 3D based on a magnetogram, is complicated, the attempt to extract the underlying loop physics might have been hindered by the complexity of the field. We go back to basic by using a simple quadrupole field structure and applying a heating model in which heat is deposited mostly near the footpoint. Our 3D simulation demonstrates that this simple structure is able to reproduce loop-like structures in EUV. Although the flux tubes expand in the corona as expected, the EUV loops have remarkably uniform cross sections. The dynamic properties of these synthetic loops are to be compared with the observations.

Work supported by Heliospheric Theory Program of NASA Title: Global Thermodynamic MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona in the Context of SDO/AIA Observations. Authors: Downs, Cooper; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2012AAS...22020714D Altcode: Realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models can serve as powerful testbeds for exploring our understanding of magnetic and thermodynamic processes in the solar corona. An important aspect in their development is the use of observations to characterize model results. In this context we investigate the comparison of observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to a thermodynamic MHD model of the global corona (Lionello et al. 2009), with emphasis on exploiting the unique multi-spectral information available from the AIA observing program. We discuss the implications towards modeling multi-temperature magnetic structures observed in the low corona, and focus on the sensitivity of the AIA observables with respect to the choice of coronal heating parameterizations and magnetic boundary data.

Research Supported by NASA and NSF. Title: A First Look at Magnetic Field Data Products from SDO/HMI Authors: Liu, Y.; Scherrer, P. H.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Schou, J.; Bai, T.; Beck, J. G.; Bobra, M.; Bogart, R. S.; Bush, R. I.; Couvidat, S.; Hayashi, K.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Larson, T. P.; Rabello-Soares, C.; Sun, X.; Wachter, R.; Zhao, J.; Zhao, X. P.; Duvall, T. L., Jr.; DeRosa, M. L.; Schrijver, C. J.; Title, A. M.; Centeno, R.; Tomczyk, S.; Borrero, J. M.; Norton, A. A.; Barnes, G.; Crouch, A. D.; Leka, K. D.; Abbett, W. P.; Fisher, G. H.; Welsch, B. T.; Muglach, K.; Schuck, P. W.; Wiegelmann, T.; Turmon, M.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P.; Wu, S. T. Bibcode: 2012ASPC..455..337L Altcode: The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI; Scherrer & Schou 2011) is one of the three instruments aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) that was launched on February 11, 2010 from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The instrument began to acquire science data on March 24. The regular operations started on May 1. HMI measures the Doppler velocity and line-of-sight magnetic field in the photosphere at a cadence of 45 seconds, and the vector magnetic field at a 135-second cadence, with a 4096× 4096 pixels full disk coverage. The vector magnetic field data is usually averaged over 720 seconds to suppress the p-modes and increase the signal-to-noise ratio. The spatial sampling is about 0".5 per pixel. HMI observes the Fe i 6173 Å absorption line, which has a Landé factor of 2.5. These data are further used to produce higher level data products through the pipeline at the HMI-AIA Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) - Science Data Processing (Scherrer et al. 2011) at Stanford University. In this paper, we briefly describe the data products, and demonstrate the performance of the HMI instrument. We conclude that the HMI is working extremely well. Title: Observations and simulations of the sympathetic eruptions on 2010 August 1 Authors: Torok, T.; Mikic, Z.; Panasenco, O.; Titov, V. S.; Reeves, K. K.; Velli, M.; Linker, J. A.; de Toma, G. Bibcode: 2012EGUGA..14.3270T Altcode: During the rise of the new solar cycle, the Sun has produced a number of so-called sympathetic eruptions, i.e., eruptions that occur close in time in different source regions. While it has become clear in recent years that in many of such events the individual eruptions must be magnetically connected, the exact nature of these connections is not yet understood. A particularly beautiful case, which consisted of half a dozen individual eruptions, was observed by STEREO and SDO on 2010 August 1. Here we focus on a subset of two large, consecutive filament eruptions that were preceded by a nearby CME. We first summarize the main features of these events and then present 3D MHD simulations that were designed to model such a chain of eruptions. The simulations suggest that the two filament eruptions were triggered by two successive reconnection events, each of which was induced by the previous eruption, and thus provide a new mechanism for sympathetic eruptions. Title: Global MHD Models of the Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S.; Torok, T. Bibcode: 2012decs.confE..85M Altcode: Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are useful in understanding the properties of the global solar corona. They typically use measured photospheric magnetic fields and an empirical specification of coronal heating. Comparisons of simulated EUV and X-ray emission from such models with observations (such as SOHO/EIT, Hinode/XRT, STEREO/EUVI, and SDO/AIA) can provide a tight constraint on coronal heating models. We will describe how these models can be used to improve our understanding of the process that heats the corona. Title: Connecting the photosphere to the corona : Reconstructing the Solar Coronal Magnetic Field Authors: Amari, T.; Delyon, F.; Alauzet, F.; Canou, A.; Mikic, Z.; Aly, J. J.; Solis Team; Stanford Sdo/Hmi Team Bibcode: 2012decs.confE..50A Altcode: The low solar corona is dominated by the magnetic field which is created inside the sun by a dynamo process and then emerges into the atmosphere. This magnetic field plays an important role in most structures and phenomena observed at various wavelengths such as prominences, small and large scale eruptive events, and continuous heating of the plasma, and therefore it is important to understand its three-dimensional properties in order to elaborate efficient theoretical models. Unfortunately, the magnetic field is difficult to measure locally in the hot and tenuous corona. But this can be done at the level of the cooler and denser photosphere, and several instruments with high resolution vector magnetographs are currently available (THEMIS, Imaging Vector Magnetograph (IVM), the Advanced Stokes Polarimeter (ASP)), SOLIS, HINODE , Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), or will be shortly available and future programmed missions such as , SOLAR-ORBITER. This has lead solar physicists to develop an approach which consists in reconstructing the coronal magnetic field from boundary data given on the photosphere. We will present our recent progress and results to solve this problem at the scale of active regions or larger ones such as full disk or synoptic scales, for which the large amount of data as well as their sparsity on the solar disk, require to develop particular strategies. We will also illustrate the interest of the reconstruction for characterizing the magnetic environments of prominences, emerging sub-photospheric structures and the pre-eruptive ones. Title: Coronal Mass Ejection Initiation by Converging Photospheric Flows: Toward a Realistic Model Authors: Amari, T.; Aly, J. -J.; Luciani, J. -F.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2011ApJ...742L..27A Altcode: In the context of coronal mass ejections triggering, we reconsider the class of models in which the evolution of an active region (AR) is driven by imposed boundary motions converging toward the polarity inversion line (PIL). We introduce a new model problem in which there is a large-scale flow with a diverging structure on the photosphere. This flow is reminiscent of that of the well-known moat flow around each of the two spots of a bipolar AR and transports only part of the magnetic flux toward the PIL. It is thus more compatible with observations than the one used in our previous study, which forced the whole positive and negative polarity parts of the AR approaching each other. We also include a diffusion term associated with small-scale turbulent photospheric motions, but keep the associated diffusivity at a low value in the particular study described here. We show that the evolution of an initial sheared force-free field first leads to the formation of a twisted flux rope which stays in equilibrium for some time. Eventually, however, the configuration suffers a global disruption whose underlying mechanism is found by energetic considerations to be nonequilibrium. It begins indeed when the magnetic energy becomes of the order of the energy of an accessible partially open field. For triggering an eruption by converging flows, it is thus not necessary to advect the whole AR toward the PIL, but only its central part. Title: MHD Modeling of the Sympathetic Eruptions Observed on August 1, 2010 Authors: Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH41B..04M Altcode: The multiple solar eruptions observed by SDO on August 1, 2010 present a special challenge to theoretical models of CME initiation. SDO captured in detail a remarkable chain of sympathetic eruptions that involved the entire visible hemisphere of the Sun (Schrijver et al. 2011). It consisted of several flares and six filament eruptions/CMEs, and triggered a geomagnetic storm on August 3 (de Toma et al. 2010). This series of eruptions was also observed by the two STEREO spacecraft. This collection of observations presents a unique opportunity to understand sympathetic eruptions theoretically. We will present 3D MHD simulations of these events that have helped us to understand the possible mechanisms by which the various filament eruptions/CMEs may be linked, with particular emphasis on the global topology of the coronal magnetic field in which these structures are embedded. Title: The Unusual Minimum Preceding Cycle 24: What MHD Models Reveal Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH23D..04L Altcode: The mimimum preceding solar cycle 24 is characterized by unusual properties when compared with the previous cycle and other space age minima. These features include many more spotless days, weaker polar magnetic field strengths, weaker interplanetary magnetic fields, and persistent isolated equatorial coronal holes. We use high-resolution 3D MHD simulations of the corona to investigate coronal structure during the deep minimum. We compare these results with simulations of the corona for the minimum prior to solar cycle 23, to elucidate the differences between the minima. We will also discuss how the recent unusual minimum provides opportunities to test our understanding of the underlying processes that produce the corona and solar wind, particularly the origin of the slow solar wind. Research supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Global MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere for the Whole Heliosphere Interval Authors: Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Luhmann, J.; Wijaya, J. Bibcode: 2011SoPh..274..361R Altcode: In an effort to understand the three-dimensional structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), we have developed a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solution for Carrington rotation (CR) 2068. Our model, which includes energy-transport processes, such as coronal heating, conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the effects of Alfvén waves, is capable of producing significantly better estimates of the plasma temperature and density in the corona than have been possible in the past. With such a model, we can compute emission in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray wavelengths, as well as scattering in polarized white light. Additionally, from our heliospheric solutions, we can deduce magnetic-field and plasma parameters along specific spacecraft trajectories. In this paper, we present a general analysis of the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during WHI, focusing, in particular, on i) helmet-streamer structure; ii) the location of the heliospheric current sheet; and iii) the geometry of corotating interaction regions. We also compare model results with i) EUV observations from the EIT instrument onboard SOHO; and ii) in-situ measurements made by the STEREO-A and B spacecraft. Finally, we contrast the global structure of the corona and inner heliosphere during WHI with its structure during the Whole Sun Month (WSM) interval. Overall, our model reproduces the essential features of the observations; however, many discrepancies are present. We discuss several likely causes for them and suggest how model predictions may be improved in the future. Title: Comparing MHD Simulations of the Solar Corona and the Solar Wind with Data Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S.; Torok, T. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH41B..02L Altcode: Our global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona and the solar wind has been extensively used to model the properties of the magnetic field and of the plasma, from Sun to Earth and beyond. The key observational input to the model is the incorporation of observed photospheric magnetic fields into the boundary conditions. We have studied the geometrical and topological properties of the magnetic field (e.g., the location and evolution of corona holes, the reproduction of streamer structure, the location of the heliospheric current sheet, etc.) and its dynamical reconfiguration (e.g., eruptions and CMEs propagation). Direct comparison with observations have been made in the corona by calculation of emission in several EUV and X-ray bands, both for loops and the global corona. We have also compared the simulated speed, density, temperature, and magnetic field in the solar wind with in situ observations. We will discuss the insights obtained on the strengths and limitations of the models from these comparisons. Title: How do Heliospheric Remote-Sensing Observations Limit Magnetic Flux Rope Models? Authors: Riley, P.; Torok, T.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH24A..02R Altcode: In-situ measurements of coronal mass ejecta (CMEs) display a range of properties, only some of which can be accounted for by current global MHD models. In fact, first-principle models that include the initiation and eruption of the ejecta necessarily produce well-defined flux ropes, whereas only a fraction of CMEs observed in-situ appear to contain a flux rope. In this talk, we summarize our current understanding of the observed properties of interplanetary flux ropes and ejecta in general. We explore ideas that the dichotomy between CMEs and flux ropes might be due to: (1) an observational selection effect, that is, all CMEs do in fact contain flux ropes and that the trajectory of the spacecraft through the event is what determines whether a flux rope is also encountered; (2) interactions of an erupting flux rope with itself or between neighboring flux ropes to produce complex structures in which the flux-rope structure has been significantly modified or destroyed; (3) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state, which governs whether a flux rope is present or not; or (4) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic mechanisms for producing CMEs, some of which produce flux ropes and some that do not. To assess these ideas, we compare model results with a selection of CMEs observed by the Ulysses, ACE, and STEREO spacecraft. Title: Advances in Modeling the initiation and evolution of CMEs through the Solar WInd Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Torok, T.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH53C..05R Altcode: Over the last decade, several factors have led to remarkable gains in our ability to realistically model a coronal mass ejection (CME) all the way from the solar surface to 1 AU, or beyond. First, global models of the ambient solar corona and inner heliosphere have improved dramatically. The algorithms have transitioned from simple polytropic prescriptions to rich thermodynamic models that can reproduce the essential features of remote solar observations and in-situ measurements. Second, theories of CME initiation, and their implementation into numerical models, have developed to the point that a range of complex mechanisms can now be simulated with great fidelity. Third, the original serial codes are now fully parallelized allowing them to recruit thousands of processors, and with this, the ability to simulate events on unprecedented temporal and spatial scales. And fourth, successive NASA-led missions are returning ever-more resolved and accurate photospheric magnetic field observations from which boundary conditions can be derived. In this talk, we show how these factors have allowed us to produce event-specific simulations that provide genuine insight into the initiation and evolution of CMEs, and contrast these results with what was "state-of-the-art" only 10 years ago. We close by speculating on what the next advances in global CME models might be. Title: Magnetic Topology of the Sympathetic CMEs Observed on 27 July 2011 and 1 August 2010 Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J. A.; Panasenco, O. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH43B1949T Altcode: Two fascinating sequences of apparently coupled CMEs were observed on 27-28 July 2011 and 1-2 August 2010 by SDO and STEREO. The latter sequence has recently been described at length by Schrijver & Title (2011). In both CME sequences, the individual eruptions were closely synchronized with one another, even though some of them occurred at widely separated locations. In an attempt to identify a plausible reason of such a synchronization, we study the large-scale structure of the background PFSS magnetic fields that were computed from the observed photospheric magnetic field at the appropriate time period. We investigate the magnetic connectivities in these configurations by calculating and analyzing the distributions of the so-called squashing factor at the photospheric and source-surface boundaries, as well as at different cross-sections. This allows us to get a comprehensive understanding of the underlying structural skeleton of the magnetic configuration. In particular, our analysis reveals several pseudo-streamers in the regions where the eruptions occurred. Of special interest to us are the magnetic null points and separators located at the intersection of the separatrix domes and curtains of the pseudo-streamers. We assume that magnetic reconnection induced by the first eruption at these locations played likely a major role in establishing the postulated link between the eruptions in both CME sequences. Our recent simplified MHD model of sympathetic eruptions supports this assumption (Török et al. 2011). In the present study, we try to further verify it by comparing the background magnetic topologies of the two sequences of CMEs. Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Observations of the White Light Corona from Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus Authors: Howard, R. A.; Thernisien, A. F.; Vourlidas, A.; Plunkett, S. P.; Korendyke, C. M.; Sheeley, N. R.; Morrill, J. S.; Socker, D. G.; Linton, M. G.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E. M.; Velli, M. M.; Mikic, Z.; Bothmer, V.; Lamy, P. L. Bibcode: 2011AGUFMSH43F..06H Altcode: The SoloHI instrument on Solar Orbiter and the WISPR instrument on Solar Probe+ will make white light coronagraphic images of the corona as the two spacecraft orbit the Sun. The minimum perihelia for Solar Orbiter is about 60 Rsun and for SP+ is 9.5 Rsun. The wide field of view of the WISPR instrument (about 105 degrees radially) corresponds to viewing the corona from 2.2 Rsun to 20 Rsun. Thus the entire Thomson hemisphere is contained within the telescope's field and we need to think of the instrument as being a traditional remote sensing instrument and then transitioning to a local in-situ instrument. The local behavior derives from the fact that the maximum Thomson scattering will favor the electron plasma close to the spacecraft - exactly what the in-situ instruments will be sampling. SoloHI and WISPR will also observe scattered light from dust in the inner heliosphere, which will be an entirely new spatial regime for dust observations from a coronagraph, which we assume to arise from dust in the general neighborhood of about half way between the observer and the Sun. As the dust grains approach the Sun, they evaporate and do not contribute to the scattering. A dust free zone has been postulated to exist somewhere inside of 5 Rsun where all dust is evaporated, but this has never been observed. The radial position where the evaporation occurs will depend on the precise molecular composition of the individual grains. The orbital plane of Solar Orbiter will gradually increase up to about 35 degrees, enabling a very different view through the zodiacal dust cloud to test the models generated from in-ecliptic observations. In this paper we will explore some of the issues associated with the observation of the dust and will present a simple model to explore the sensitivity of the instrument to observe such evaporations. Title: Formation of the current sheet in a coronal streamer Authors: Abbo, Lucia; Antonucci, Ester; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2011arXiv1111.2711A Altcode: The present work is on the study of a coronal streamer observed in March 2008 at high spectral and spatial resolution by the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model. The results of the analysis show indications on the formation of the current sheet, one of the source regions of the slow coronal wind. Title: A Model for Magnetically Coupled Sympathetic Eruptions Authors: Török, T.; Panasenco, O.; Titov, V. S.; Mikić, Z.; Reeves, K. K.; Velli, M.; Linker, J. A.; De Toma, G. Bibcode: 2011ApJ...739L..63T Altcode: 2011arXiv1108.2069T Sympathetic eruptions on the Sun have been observed for several decades, but the mechanisms by which one eruption can trigger another remain poorly understood. We present a three-dimensional MHD simulation that suggests two possible magnetic trigger mechanisms for sympathetic eruptions. We consider a configuration that contains two coronal flux ropes located within a pseudo-streamer and one rope located next to it. A sequence of eruptions is initiated by triggering the eruption of the flux rope next to the streamer. The expansion of the rope leads to two consecutive reconnection events, each of which triggers the eruption of a flux rope by removing a sufficient amount of overlying flux. The simulation qualitatively reproduces important aspects of the global sympathetic event on 2010 August 1 and provides a scenario for the so-called twin filament eruptions. The suggested mechanisms are also applicable for sympathetic eruptions occurring in other magnetic configurations. Title: A model for sympathetic eruptions Authors: Torok, Tibor; Panasenco, O.; Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Velli, M.; Linker, J.; De Toma, G. Bibcode: 2011shin.confE.125T Altcode: Apart from single eruptions originating in localized source regions, the Sun sometimes produces so-called sympathetic events, which consist of several individual eruptions occurring almost simultaneously in different source regions. The close temporal correlation of the individual eruptions in such events indicates a causal link between them, but the mechanisms by which one eruption can trigger another one remain largely a mystery.

A particularly beautiful example of a global sympathetic event was recently observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) on 1 August 2010. It included a small filament eruption and CME that was shortly after followed by the nearby subsequent eruptions of two large adjacent (twin) filaments, indicating that these three eruptions were physically connected. A coronal potential field extrapolation reveals that the twin filaments were located in the lobes of a so-called pseudostreamer prior to their eruptions.

Here we present a 3D MHD simulation of the successive eruption of two magnetic flux ropes in such a pseudostreamer configuration. The two eruptions are triggered by the simulated eruption of a third flux rope in the vicinity of the pseudostreamer. The simulation qualitatively reproduces the CME and subsequent twin filament eruption on 1 August 2010 and suggests that these events were indeed physically connected. Furthermore, it provides a generic scenario for the frequently observed twin filament eruptions in coronal pseudostreamers and suggests a mechanism by which such eruptions can be triggered in the first place. Our results thus provide an important step for a better understanding of sympathetic eruptions. Title: Magnetic Topology Diagnostics and the Slow Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2011shin.confE.156L Altcode: In a 3D MHD simulation of the solar corona, we advect two magnetic bipoles into and out of a coronal hole. This causes a complex reconfiguration of the magnetic field, with field lines that open up, close down, or undergo interchange reconnection. We examine magnetic topology diagnostics and look for indications of slow wind formation. Title: Structural Skeleton of the Background Magnetic Field During Sympathetic Eruptions on 1-2 August 2010 Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikić, Zoran; Török, Tibor; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2011shin.confE.131T Altcode: The Solar Dynamics Observatory observed on 1-2 August 2010 an interesting sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (Schrijver & Title, 2011). These CMEs were closely synchronized with one another, even though some of them occurred at remote locations. Therefore, it is tempting to assume that these events were causally linked. In an attempt to identify a plausible reason of such a link, we study a large-scale structure of the background magnetic field that has been computed from the observed photospheric magnetic field at the appropriate time period. For this purpose, we investigate the respective magnetic connectivity in the obtained configuration by calculating and analyzing the distributions of the so-called squashing factor at the boundaries as well as at different cross-sections. This allows us to get a comprehensive understanding of the underlying structural skeleton of the magnetic configuration. In particular, we have found that five of the six erupting flux ropes were located inside the domes of three pseudostreamers adjoint to the active region AR 11094. The stalks of the pseudostreamers passed along the fan separatrix surfaces emanating upward from the respective magnetic null points. We assume that magnetic reconnection at these null points played likely a major role in establishing a hypothetical causal link between the indicated CMEs. The obtained topological framework provides a solid guide for further numerical modeling and analysis of the observational data of these events.

Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: The S-Web Hypothesis and the Slow Solar Wind Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikic, Zoran; Antiochos, Spiro Bibcode: 2011shin.confE.160L Altcode: The origin of the slow solar wind is controversial. A successful theory must explain the plasma composition and angular extent of the slow wind, as well as its frequent asymmetry with respect to the heliospheric current sheet. Recently, a new idea has been put forward for the origin of the slow wind, dubbed the S-Web model. The name comes from high-resolution MHD calculations that have revealed that coronal hole boundaries are not smooth, but are highly corrugated with a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers. These are regions that are likely to be susceptible to interchange reconnection. In this talk we describe the origin of this idea, how it may explain key features of the slow solar wind, and further calculations/observational tests that may help confirm or refute this idea.

Work supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Coronal Plumes in the Fast Solar Wind Authors: Velli, Marco; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2011ApJ...736...32V Altcode: The expansion of a coronal hole filled with a discrete number of higher density coronal plumes is simulated using a time-dependent two-dimensional code. A solar wind model including an exponential coronal heating function and a flux of Alfvén waves propagating both inside and outside the structures is taken as a basic state. Different plasma plume profiles are obtained by using different scale heights for the heating rates. Remote sensing and solar wind in situ observations are used to constrain the parameter range of the study. Time dependence due to plume ignition and disappearance is also discussed. Velocity differences of the order of ~50 km s-1, such as those found in microstreams in the high-speed solar wind, may be easily explained by slightly different heat deposition profiles in different plumes. Statistical pressure balance in the fast wind data may be masked by the large variety of body and surface waves which the higher density filaments may carry, so the absence of pressure balance in the microstreams should not rule out their interpretation as the extension of coronal plumes into interplanetary space. Mixing of plume-interplume material via the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability seems to be possible within the parameter ranges of the models defined here, only at large distances from the Sun, beyond 0.2-0.3 AU. Plasma and composition measurements in the inner heliosphere, such as those which will become available with Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus, should therefore definitely be able to identify plume remnants in the solar wind. Title: 3d Mhd Simulation Of Sympathetic Eruptions On 1 August 2010 Authors: Torok, Tibor; Panasenco, O.; Titov, V.; Mikic, Z.; Reeves, K.; Velli, M.; Linker, J.; de Toma, G. Bibcode: 2011SPD....42.0908T Altcode: 2011BAAS..43S.0908T Apart from single eruptions originating in localized source regions, the Sun sometimes produces so-called sympathetic events, which consist of

several individual eruptions occurring

almost simultaneously in different source regions. The close temporal vicinity of the individual eruptions in such events indicates the

existence of a causal link between them, but the mechanisms by which one eruption can trigger another one remain largely a mystery. A particularly beautiful example of a global sympathetic event was recently observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) on 1 August 2010. It included a small filament eruption and CME that was closely followed by the eruptions of two large adjacent (twin) filaments, indicating that these three eruptions were physically connected. A coronal potential field extrapolation revealed that the twin filaments were located in the lobes of a so-called pseudostreamer prior to their eruptions. Here we present a 3D MHD simulation of the successive eruption of two magnetic flux ropes in such a pseudostreamer configuration. The two eruptions are triggered by the simulated eruption of a third flux rope in the vicinity of the pseudostreamer. The simulation qualitatively reproduces the CME and subsequent twin filament eruption on 1 August 2010 and suggests that these events were indeed physically connected. Furthermore, it provides a generic scenario for the frequently observed twin filament eruptions in coronal pseudostreamers and suggests a mechanism by which such eruptions can be triggered in the first place. Our results thus provide an important step for a better understanding of sympathetic eruptions. Title: How Geometric Factors Affect Coronal Loop Properties Authors: Mok, Yung; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2011SPD....42.1817M Altcode: 2011BAAS..43S.1817M We studied over 200 closed field lines from a realistic FF field in the neighborhood of a sunspot group. Each field line can be perceived as a coronal loop with plasma density and temperature profiles when appropriate heating and radiative cooling are applied. These field lines have a variety of properties, including spatially varying flux tube area and the geometric shape that determines gravity projection. As a result, we see a large range of loop behaviors. Some reach a static equilibrium. Some reach a steady state with a one-way siphon flow. However, most of them do not reach a steady state. Their temperature/density oscillate in time between a hot phase and a cool phase periodically, with approximately 90 degrees phase difference between temperature and density. By artificially modifying their geometric properties and/or heating, we show that we can alter their behaviors, for example, from an oscillating type to a steady-state type. Our study underscores the importance of using the correct geometry when using 1D simulation to model coronal loops. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Origin and Evolution of Corotating Interaction Regions Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Stevens, M. Bibcode: 2011SPD....42.1405L Altcode: 2011BAAS..43S.1405L Recurrent geomagnetic activity at Earth is closely associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which form when fast solar streams catch up to and interact with slow solar wind. CIRs are most often associated with the declining phase of the solar cycle. In the classic picture of the formation of CIRs, fast solar wind streams emanating from the polar coronal holes encounter and compress the slow solar wind in the ecliptic because of the overall tilt of the Sun's magnetic axis during this phase of the cycle. This picture fits well with Ulysses observations near the end of solar cycle 22. In the most recent solar minimum, recurrent fast solar wind streams at Earth were frequently observed, but these streams were associated with isolated equatorial coronal holes, rather than the extended polar coronal holes of the previous minimum. This time period would seem ideal for testing models of coronal and heliospheric structure, which were first developed and tested against observations at the end of cycle 22. We have developed MHD models of the corona and solar wind for Carrington rotation 2060 (Aug. 14 - Sept. 10, 2007), when prominent fast solar wind streams were present. We discovered that the model predictions varied significantly depending on which solar observatory was used to develop the boundary conditions, and that the models systematically underestimated the strength of B in the solar wind. We discuss our results thus far in identifying the underlying causes of these discrepancies and some of the implications for providing routine models of the corona and solar wind.

Research supported by NASA and NSF. Title: MHD Simulations of Coronal Plumes Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Velli, M.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2011SPD....42.1807L Altcode: 2011BAAS..43S.1807L The expansion of a coronal hole filled with a discrete number of higher density coronal plumes is simulated using a time-dependent 2D code. A solar wind model including an exponential coronal heating function and a flux of Alfven waves propagating both inside and outside the structures is taken as a basic state. Different plasma plume profiles are obtained by using different scale heights for the heating rates. Remote sensing and solar wind in situ observations are used to constrain the parameter range of the study. Time dependence due to plume ignition and disappearance is also discussed. Velocity differences of the order of 50 km/s, such as those found in microstreams in the high-speed solar wind, may be easily explained by slightly different heat deposition profiles in different plumes. Statistical pressure balance in the fast wind data may be masked by the large variety of body and surface waves which the higher density filaments may carry, so the absence of pressure balance in the microstreams should not rule out their interpretation as the extension of coronal plumes into interplanetary space. Mixing of plume-interplume material via the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability seems to be possible, within the parameter ranges of the models defined here, only at large distances from the Sun, beyond 0.2-0.3 AU. Plasma and composition measurements in the inner heliosphere, such as those which will become available with Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus, should therefore definitely be able to identify plume remnants in the solar wind. Title: Magnetic Topology of the Source Surface Potential Field on 1 August 2010 Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2011SPD....42.2303T Altcode: 2011BAAS..43S.2303T A sequence of coronal mass ejections was recently observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) on 1 August 2010. The events were closely synchronized with one another, even though some of them occured at rather different locations. Therefore, it is tempting to assume that these events were causally linked with each other. In an attempt to verify this assumption and identify a plausible reason of such a link, we study the topological structure of the source surface potential field that has been computed from the observed photospheric magnetic field at the appropriate time period. For this purpose, we investigate the respective magnetic connectivity in the obtained configuration by calculating and analyzing the distributions of the so-called squashing factor at the boundaries as well as at different cross-sections. This allows us to get a comprehensive understanding of the underlying structural skeleton of the magnetic cofiguration and identify the robust topological features that likely establish the assumed causal link in the indicated events. The obtained topological framework also provides a solid guide for further numerical modeling and analysis of the observational data of these eruptions. Title: Magnetic Topology of Coronal Hole Linkages Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Antiochos, S. K. Bibcode: 2011ApJ...731..111T Altcode: 2010arXiv1011.0009T In recent work, Antiochos and coworkers argued that the boundary between the open and closed field regions on the Sun can be extremely complex with narrow corridors of open flux connecting seemingly disconnected coronal holes from the main polar holes and that these corridors may be the sources of the slow solar wind. We examine, in detail, the topology of such magnetic configurations using an analytical source surface model that allows for analysis of the field with arbitrary resolution. Our analysis reveals three new important results. First, a coronal hole boundary can join stably to the separatrix boundary of a parasitic polarity region. Second, a single parasitic polarity region can produce multiple null points in the corona and, more important, separator lines connecting these points. It is known that such topologies are extremely favorable for magnetic reconnection, because they allow this process to occur over the entire length of the separators rather than being confined to a small region around the nulls. Finally, the coronal holes are not connected by an open-field corridor of finite width, but instead are linked by a singular line that coincides with the separatrix footprint of the parasitic polarity. We investigate how the topological features described above evolve in response to the motion of the parasitic polarity region. The implications of our results for the sources of the slow solar wind and for coronal and heliospheric observations are discussed. Title: A Model for the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind Authors: Antiochos, S. K.; Mikić, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2011ApJ...731..112A Altcode: 2011arXiv1102.3704A Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind also has large angular width, up to ~60°, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We compute analytically the topology of an open-field corridor and show that it produces a quasi-separatrix layer in the heliosphere that extends to angles far from the heliospheric current sheet. We then use an MHD code and MDI/SOHO observations of the photospheric magnetic field to calculate numerically, with high spatial resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind, and magnetic field for a time period preceding the 2008 August 1 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results imply that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (which we term an S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere and propose further tests of the model. Title: The Evolution of Open Magnetic Flux Driven by Photospheric Dynamics Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Antiochos, Spiro K. Bibcode: 2011ApJ...731..110L Altcode: The coronal magnetic field is of paramount importance in solar and heliospheric physics. Two profoundly different views of the coronal magnetic field have emerged. In quasi-steady models, the predominant source of open magnetic field is in coronal holes. In contrast, in the interchange model, the open magnetic flux is conserved, and the coronal magnetic field can only respond to the photospheric evolution via interchange reconnection. In this view, the open magnetic flux diffuses through the closed, streamer belt fields, and substantial open flux is present in the streamer belt during solar minimum. However, Antiochos and coworkers, in the form of a conjecture, argued that truly isolated open flux cannot exist in a configuration with one heliospheric current sheet—it will connect via narrow corridors to the polar coronal hole of the same polarity. This contradicts the requirements of the interchange model. We have performed an MHD simulation of the solar corona up to 20 R sun to test both the interchange model and the Antiochos conjecture. We use a synoptic map for Carrington rotation 1913 as the boundary condition for the model, with two small bipoles introduced into the region where a positive polarity extended coronal hole forms. We introduce flows at the photospheric boundary surface to see if open flux associated with the bipoles can be moved into the closed-field region. Interchange reconnection does occur in response to these motions. However, we find that the open magnetic flux cannot be simply injected into closed-field regions—the flux eventually closes down and disconnected flux is created. Flux either opens or closes, as required, to maintain topologically distinct open- and closed-field regions, with no indiscriminate mixing of the two. The early evolution conforms to the Antiochos conjecture in that a narrow corridor of open flux connects the portion of the coronal hole that is nearly detached by one of the bipoles. In the later evolution, a detached coronal hole forms, in apparent violation of the Antiochos conjecture. Further investigation reveals that this detached coronal hole is actually linked to the extended coronal hole by a separatrix footprint on the photosphere of zero width. Therefore, the essential idea of the conjecture is preserved, if we modify it to state that coronal holes in the same polarity region are always linked, either by finite width corridors or separatrix footprints. The implications of these results for interchange reconnection and the sources of the slow solar wind are briefly discussed. Title: MHD Simulations of the Global Solar Corona and the Solar Wind Authors: Lionello, Robert; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Titov, Viacheslav, S. Bibcode: 2011sswh.book..101L Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Characterization of the slow wind in the outer corona Authors: Abbo, Lucia; Antonucci, Ester; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto Bibcode: 2010AdSpR..46.1400A Altcode: 2010arXiv1008.4452A The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 23 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region. Title: The Wide Field Imager for Solar PRobe (WISPR) Authors: Plunkett, S. P.; Howard, R. A.; Vourlidas, A.; Korendyke, C. M.; Socker, D. G.; Morrill, J. S.; Sheeley, N. R.; Linton, M.; Liewer, P. C.; de Jong, E. M.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMSH11B1622P Altcode: The Wide Field Imager for Solar PRobe (WISPR) will image the Thomson-scattered light from the coronal plasma in the inner corona, with unprecedented spatial resolution, cadence, and sensitivity. WISPR follows on the SECCHI Heliospheric Imager (HI) aboard the STEREO mission, and addresses all four key objectives in the Solar Probe Plus: Report of the STDT (2008): (1) Determine the structure and dynamics of the magnetic fields at the sources of the fast and slow solar wind, (2) Trace the flow of energy that heats the solar corona and accelerates the SW, (3) explore the mechanisms that accelerate and transport energetic particles, (4) explore dusty plasma phenomena and their influence on the solar wind and energetic particle formation. Situated in the ram direction of the Solar Probe Plus (SPP) spacecraft (S/C), WISPR will have the unique ability to image the coronal structures when they are close to the Sun, as they approach, and as they pass over the spacecraft. As a remote sensor, WISPR will connect the structures close to the Sun to the spacecraft and provide important spatial and temporal information; measuring, for example, the properties of the structures generating the shocks and SEPs that will be measured in a few minutes at the S/C. Since the S/C is embedded in the corona, WISPR and the in situ instruments will measure for the first time the same plasma. Also as the SPP transits through the corona, the rapidly-varying viewpoint and high spatial resolution of WISPR will enable tomographic imaging of the corona, and lead to higher fidelity and finer scale 3D reconstructions than are possible with the STEREO mission or single-view rotational tomography. The wide field of view will include at times other inner heliospheric probes (e.g. Solar Orbiter) and will image the outflowing wind that is impinging on that probe. In addition to this standard imaging mode, WISPR opens a new capability for imaging instruments, the measurement of pressure turbulence by employing a high cadence mode (~1 sec) to image a small region in the corona. For the first time, the slopes of the power spectral density from images can be compared directly to the density and magnetic field fluctuations seen in situ as a function of coronal spatial structure and heliocentric distance. In addition, the 1 sec cadence can be generated anywhere within the WISPR field, enabling the study of the transition of the solar wind injected at the tops of the helmet streamers to inertial dissipation scales. Title: Comparing an MHD Model of the Corona During the July 11, 2010 Total Solar Eclipse with Observations (Invited) Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMSH42A..09M Altcode: Total solar eclipses offer a unique opportunity to study the white light and emission coronae at high resolution. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models have been used to predict the structure of the corona prior to eclipses, using measurements of photospheric magnetic fields on the Sun. In particular, such an MHD model was used to predict the structure of the corona for the July 11, 2010 total solar eclipse, using SOHO/MDI photospheric magnetic field data. We will compare observed images of the total solar eclipse with features from the MHD model, including magnetic field line traces and simulated polarization brightness images. We will also compare images of simulated emission in EUV and X-rays with observations from SOHO/EIT, Hinode/XRT, STEREO/EUVI, and SDO/AIA. Such comparisons of observed emission with predictions from global coronal MHD models provide a very sensitive constraint on coronal heating models. Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and Living With a Star Programs, and NSF/CISM. Title: Thermal Nonequilibrium Revisited: a Heating Model for Coronal Loops Authors: Lionello, R.; Winebarger, A. R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Mok, Y. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMSH31C1811L Altcode: The mechanism responsible for heating coronal loops is still a matter of debate. To explain loop observations, steady uniform heating, impulsive heating events of variable duration, and nanoflare heating of elemental strands have been proposed. Thermal nonequilibrium was discarded by Klimchuk et al. (2010) on the base of their 1D simulations, as incapable of reproducing observational characteristics of loops. We here revisit the viability of thermal nonequilibrium to explain the physics of coronal loops, by comparing the results of 3D simulations with observed properties in EUV and soft X-rays. Title: Structure and Dynamics of the Erupting Magnetic Flux in the May 12 1997 CME Event Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMSH51C1687T Altcode: The identification of erupting magnetic fluxes in solar CMEs is a big challenge from both computational and theoretical points of view. We have attacked this problem by studying the May 12 1997 CME event with the help of two powerful tools: (1) Our numerical MHD model of erupting magnetic configurations; and (2) Our generalized field line mapping technique for analyzing their magnetic structure. This approach allows us to identify the building blocks of such configurations by computing all their separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces that serve as interfaces between such blocks. The latter include, in particular, a flare arcade and erupting magnetic flux rope, which we relate to the observed flare ribbons and EUV dimmings of the event. On the basis of this analysis, we have also estimated the magnetic fluxes associated with these blocks at several moments in time. This provides a solid basis for a very detailed comparison of our MHD model with observational data of this eruption. Such a comparison helps us to verify our model and understand the physical processes and observed peculiarities of this event in conjunction with the dynamics of the underlying magnetic structure. Title: A Parametric Study to Constrain Empirically-based Models of the Ambient Solar Wind Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMSH31B1799R Altcode: Current empirically-based models, driven by various features of the coronal magnetic field often perform relatively well, (1) in the absence of obvious transient phenomena, and (2) when the ambient solar configuration remains relatively stable over several or more rotations. However, even under these conditions, the models can sometimes fail dramatically. Currently, there are three primary techniques for predicting, in particular, solar wind speed at 1 AU based on synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field. The original Wang-Sheeley (WS) model uses an observed negative correlation between solar wind speed and the expansion factor of the solar magnetic field. The Predictive Science “Distance from the Coronal Hole Boundary” (DCHB) model specifies speed in the photosphere based on the perpendicular distance from the coronal hole boundary and maps this speed out to 30 solar radii. And finally, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model combines the WS and DCHB prescriptions. In this study, we compare these three approaches for a set of carefully chosen Carrington rotations. For each, we ran a suite of solutions using a range of input parameters. We also generated solutions driven by synoptic magnetograms from different observatories, since we have found that they can significantly affect the resultant solutions. To directly compare the model solutions with 1 AU in situ measurements at ACE, Wind, STEREO A and B, and assess the potential impact of modeling stream evolution, we used two global heliospheric models (Enlil and MAS). We also employed an alternative and potentially more revealing approach of dynamically mapping the in situ measurements back to a reference surface at 30 solar radii and comparing them with the model maps. Title: Magnetic Maps and Coronal/Solar Wind Modeling: Practices and Pitfalls (Invited) Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMSH41D..03L Altcode: The ambient solar corona and solar wind play a crucial role in solar and heliospheric physics. The Sun's magnetic field is an essential ingredient of any predictive model of the solar wind. It defines the structure of the heliosphere, including the position of the heliospheric current sheet and the regions of fast and slow solar wind. The geoeffectiveness of CMEs is influenced in part by their interaction with the ambient magnetic field, and the field determines where SEPs propagate. To model the global magnetic field of the solar corona, maps of the magnetic field over the entire solar surface must be supplied as boundary conditions. In this talk, we demonstrate how common errors and uncertainties in the field measurements can at times strongly influence the solutions, and we discuss some of the key challenges to improving magnetic maps. Research supported by CISM (NSF), the LWS Strategic Capabilities Program (NASA, NSF, and AFOSR), and Heliophysics Theory Program (NASA). Title: Uncovering Mechanisms of Coronal Magnetism via Advanced 3D Modeling of Flares and Active Regions Authors: Fleishman, Gregory; Gary, Dale; Nita, Gelu; Alexander, David; Aschwanden, Markus; Bastian, Tim; Hudson, Hugh; Hurford, Gordon; Kontar, Eduard; Longcope, Dana; Mikic, Zoran; DeRosa, Marc; Ryan, James; White, Stephen Bibcode: 2010arXiv1011.2800F Altcode: The coming decade will see the routine use of solar data of unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution, time cadence, and completeness. To capitalize on the new (or soon to be available) facilities such as SDO, ATST and FASR, and the challenges they present in the visualization and synthesis of multi-wavelength datasets, we propose that realistic, sophisticated, 3D active region and flare modeling is timely and critical, and will be a forefront of coronal studies over the coming decade. To make such modeling a reality, a broad, concerted effort is needed to capture the wealth of information resulting from the data, develop a synergistic modeling effort, and generate the necessary visualization, interpretation and model-data comparison tools to accurately extract the key physics. Title: Interpretation of the cross-correlation function of ACE and STEREO solar wind velocities using a global MHD Model Authors: Riley, Pete; Luhmann, J.; Opitz, A.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2010JGRA..11511104R Altcode: Measurements from the ACE and STEREO A and B spacecraft are allowing an unprecedented view of the structure of the three-dimensional heliosphere. One aspect of this is the degree to which the measurements at one spacecraft correlate with those at the other. We have computed the cross-correlation functions (CCFs) for all three combinations of ACE and STEREO A and B in situ observations of the bulk solar wind velocity as the spacecraft moved progressively farther away from one another. Our results confirm previous studies that the phase lag between the signals becomes linearly larger with time. However, we have identified two intervals where this appears to break down. During these "lulls," the CCF reveals a phase lag considerably less than that which would be predicted based only on the angular separation of the spacecraft. We modeled the entire STEREO time period using a global MHD model to investigate the cause for these "lulls." We find that a combination of time-dependent evolution of the streams as well as spatial inhomogeneities, due to the latitudinal separation of the spacecraft, are sufficient to explain them. Title: Global MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere for the Whole Heliosphere Interval Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2010HiA....15..491R Altcode: With the goal of understanding the three-dimensional structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the “Whole Heliosphere Interval” (WHI), we have developed a global MHD solution for Carrington rotation (CR) 2068. Our model, which includes energy transport processes, such as coronal heating, conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the effects of Alfvén waves, is capable of producing significantly better estimates of the plasma temperature and density in the corona than have been possible in the past. With such a model, we can compute emission in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray wavelengths, as well as scattering in polarized white light. Additionally, from our heliospheric solutions, we can deduce magnetic field and plasma parameters along specific spacecraft trajectories. We have made detailed comparisons of both remote solar and in situ observations with the model results, allowing us to: (1) Connect these disparate sets of observations; (2) Infer the global structure of the inner heliosphere; and (3) Provide support for (or against) assumptions in the MHD model, such as the empirically-based coronal heating profiles. Title: Current Sheet Energetics, Flare Emissions, and Energy Partition in a Simulated Solar Eruption Authors: Reeves, Katharine K.; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Forbes, Terry G. Bibcode: 2010ApJ...721.1547R Altcode: We investigate coronal energy flow during a simulated coronal mass ejection (CME). We model the CME in the context of the global corona using a 2.5D numerical MHD code in spherical coordinates that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. The simulation domain extends from 1 to 20 Rs . To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to apply detailed energy diagnostics in a flare/CME simulation when these important terms are considered in the context of the MHD equations. We find that the energy conservation properties of the code are quite good, conserving energy to within 4% for the entire simulation (more than 6 days of real time). We examine the energy release in the current sheet as the eruption takes place, and find, as expected, that the Poynting flux is the dominant carrier of energy into the current sheet. However, there is a significant flow of energy out of the sides of the current sheet into the upstream region due to thermal conduction along field lines and viscous drag. This energy outflow is spatially partitioned into three separate components, namely, the energy flux flowing out the sides of the current sheet, the energy flowing out the lower tip of the current sheet, and the energy flowing out the upper tip of the current sheet. The energy flow through the lower tip of the current sheet is the energy available for heating of the flare loops. We examine the simulated flare emissions and energetics due to the modeled CME and find reasonable agreement with flare loop morphologies and energy partitioning in observed solar eruptions. The simulation also provides an explanation for coronal dimming during eruptions and predicts that the structures surrounding the current sheet are visible in X-ray observations. Title: From the Sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 Coronal Mass Ejection Authors: Bisi, M. M.; Breen, A. R.; Jackson, B. V.; Fallows, R. A.; Walsh, A. P.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P.; Owen, C. J.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Morgan, H.; Jensen, E. A.; Wood, A. G.; Owens, M. J.; Tokumaru, M.; Manoharan, P. K.; Chashei, I. V.; Giunta, A. S.; Linker, J. A.; Shishov, V. I.; Tyul'bashev, S. A.; Agalya, G.; Glubokova, S. K.; Hamilton, M. S.; Fujiki, K.; Hick, P. P.; Clover, J. M.; Pintér, B. Bibcode: 2010SoPh..265...49B Altcode: 2010SoPh..tmp..136B We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth's magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching −263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation. Title: A Global MHD Model of the December 12, 2008 CME Authors: Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Plunkett, Simon Bibcode: 2010shin.confE.146R Altcode: In this study, we present preliminary modeling results for the December 12th, 2008 CME (observed December 16-17 in situ). The event was likely associated with a filament eruption at N50-W15, which started at 04:00UT. H-alpha observations show the presence of a substantial filament prior to eruption and STEREO A and B captured it in the form of an erupting prominence off the east and west limbs, respectively. Using an MDI synoptic map of Carrington rotation 2077, we constructed an ambient global MHD solution of the corona prior to the eruption. Since the observations suggest a polar crown filament (PCF) event, a likely mechanism for its eruption involves the emergence of magnetic field along the neutral line producing the prominence, followed by converging flow toward that neutral line. H-alpha observations superimposed on the global photospheric neutral line, derived from the MDI magnetogram, allow us to identify the likely region to apply this flux emergence and converging flow. We present results from the model and compare with both solar and in situ observations. Title: The 13-15 May 2005 CME/ICME/MC: A Comprehensive Study from the Sun to the Earth Authors: Bisi, Mario Mark; Breen, A. R.; Jackson, B. V.; Fallows, R. A.; Walsh, A. P.; Owens, M. J.; Riley, P.; Mikić, Z.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Morgan, H.; Wood, A. G.; Jensen, E. A.; Tokumaru, M.; Manoharan, P. K.; Chashei, I. V.; Giunta, A. S.; Owen, C. J.; Fujiki, K.; Linker, J. A.; Shishov, V. I.; Tyul'bashev, S. A.; Agalya, G.; Glubokova, S. K. Bibcode: 2010shin.confE.126B Altcode: Here, we present a brief overview of the results of a multi-technique, multi-instrument, co-ordinated study of the solar-eruptive and Earth-effective event(s) of 13-15 May 2005. We look at the resulting Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), the interplanetary counterpart (ICME), and briefly, the flux-rope (Magnetic Cloud - MC) effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, as well as the use of coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are subsequently used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and consequences of this event to obtain the most-comprehensive view (to our knowledge) of an Earth-effective solar eruption to date. Full details of the study of this event can be found in a comprehensive paper by Bisi et al., Solar Physics, Topical Issue (TI) on Remote Sensing of the Inner Heliosphere, 2010, when the TI is published in August/September 2010. Title: Coronal Mass Ejection Initiation: On the Nature of the Flux Cancellation Model Authors: Amari, T.; Aly, J. -J.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2010ApJ...717L..26A Altcode: 2010arXiv1005.4669A We consider a three-dimensional bipolar force-free magnetic field with a nonzero magnetic helicity, occupying a half-space, and study the problem of its evolution driven by an imposed photospheric flux decrease. For this specific setting of the Flux Cancellation Model describing coronal mass ejections occurring in active regions, we address the issues of the physical meaning of flux decrease, of the influence on field evolution of the size of the domain over which this decrease is imposed, and of the existence of an energetic criterion characterizing the possible onset of disruption of the configuration. We show that (1) the imposed flux disappearance can be interpreted in terms of transport of positive and negative fluxes toward the inversion line, where they get annihilated. (2) For the particular case actually computed, in which the initial state is quite sheared, the formation of a twisted flux rope and the subsequent global disruption of the configuration are obtained when the flux has decreased by only a modest amount over a limited part of the whole active region. (3) The disruption is produced when the magnetic energy becomes of the order of the decreasing energy of a semi-open field, and then before reaching the energy of the associated fully open field. This suggests that the mechanism leading to the disruption is nonequilibrium as in the case where flux is imposed to decrease over the whole region. Title: Magnetic Topology of Coronal Hole Linkages Authors: Titov, Viacheslav S.; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Antiochos, Spiro Bibcode: 2010shin.confE.120T Altcode: In recent work, Antiochos et al. (2007) argued that the boundary between the open and closed field regions on the Sun can be extremely complex with narrow corridors of open flux connecting seemingly disconnected coronal holes from the main polar holes, and that these corridors may be the sources of the slow solar wind. We examine, in detail, the topology of such magnetic configurations using an analytical source surface model that allows for analysis of the field with arbitrary resolution. Our analysis reveals three important new results: First, a coronal hole boundary can include the separatrix boundary of a parasitic polarity region. Second, a single parasitic polarity region can produce multiple null points in the corona and, more important, separator lines connecting these points. Such topologies are extremely favorable for magnetic reconnection, because it can now occur over the entire length of the separators rather than being confined to a small region around the nulls. Finally, the coronal holes are not connected by an open-field corridor of finite width, but instead are linked by a singular line that coincides with the separatrix footprint of the parasitic polarity. We investigate how the topological features described above evolve in response to motion of the parasitic polarity region. The implications of our results for the sources of the slow wind and for coronal and heliospheric observations are discussed. Title: Modeling of the Ambient Solar Corona and Solar Wind: How Magnetic Maps can Make or Break your Solution Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Titov, Viacheslav Bibcode: 2010shin.confE..55L Altcode: The ambient solar corona and solar wind play a crucial role in solar and heliospheric physics. The Sun's magnetic field is an essential ingredient of any predictive model of the solar wind. It defines the structure of the heliosphere, including the position of the heliospheric current sheet and the regions of fast and slow solar wind. The geoeffectiveness of CMEs is influenced in part by their interaction with the ambient magnetic field, and the field determines where SEPs propagate. To model the global magnetic field of the solar corona, maps of the magnetic field over the entire solar surface must be supplied as boundary conditions. In this talk, we demonstrate how common errors and uncertainties in the field measurements can at times strongly influence the solutions, and we discuss some of the key challenges to improving magnetic maps. Title: Computing the DEM out of MHD Simulations and Comparing It with Observations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Mok, Yung Bibcode: 2010shin.confE..13L Altcode: We show how to compute differential emission measure, or DEM, out of the temperature and density distributions obtained from 3D MHD simulations of the solar corona. Our 3D MHD model has thermal conduction, radiative losses, and coronal heating terms in the energy equation and has been used extensively to model realistic configurations of the corona and active regions. Now we can now compare with the observations not only the emission in EUV and X ray bands but also the DEM. Comparisons with July 2010 eclipse will be presented. Title: MHD Simulations of the May 13, 2005 CME Event Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete; Titov, Viacheslav Bibcode: 2010shin.confE.125M Altcode: We will describe progress on our 3D MHD simulations of the May 13, 2005 CME Event. Title: On the relationship between coronal heating, magnetic flux, and the density of the solar wind Authors: Riley, Pete; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Schwadron, N. A.; McComas, D. J. Bibcode: 2010JGRA..115.6104R Altcode: 2010JGRA..11506104R The stark differences between the current solar minimum and the previous one offer a unique opportunity to develop new constraints on mechanisms for heating and acceleration of the solar wind. We have used a combination of numerical simulations and analysis of remote solar and in situ observations to infer that the coronal heating rate, H, scales with the average magnetic field strength within a coronal hole, Bch. This was accomplished in three steps. First, we analyzed Ulysses measurements made during its first and third orbit southern and northern polar passes (i.e., during near-solar minimum conditions) to deduce a linear relationship between proton number density (np) and radial magnetic field strength (Br) in the high-speed quiescent solar wind, consistent with the results of McComas et al. (2008) and Ebert et al. (2009). Second, we used Wilcox Solar Observatory measurements of the photospheric magnetic field to show that the magnetic field strength within coronal holes (Bch) is approximately correlated with the strength of the interplanetary field at the location of Ulysses. Third, we used hydrodynamic simulations to show that np in the solar wind scales linearly with H. Taken together, these results imply the chain: H $\propto$ np $\propto$ Br $\propto$ Bch. We also explored ideas that the correlation between np and Br could have resulted from interplanetary processes, or from the superradial expansion of the coronal magnetic field close to the Sun, but find that neither possibility can produce the observed relationship. The derived heating relationship is consistent with (1) empirical heating laws derived for closed-field line regions and (2) theoretical models aimed at understanding both the heating and acceleration of the solar wind. Title: Structural Analysis of the Coronal Magnetic Field Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2010AAS...21640607T Altcode: 2010BAAS...41..880T Recent developments in the analysis of the 3D magnetic field structure have given us new insights into the properties of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind. Maps of the flux-tube squashing factor Q make it possible to identify separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces that delimit "building blocks" of the magnetic configuration.

When combined with high resolution MHD models of active regions, this technique gives us a powerful way to relate observed features with the underlying properties of the magnetic field, and to analyze the nature and rate of 3D magnetic reconnection. On a global scale, in particular, our method reveals the intricate structure of coronal holes and localizes a possible source of the slow solar wind. We will show how we have used this method to understand the observed properties of flare ribbons, flare arcades, and EUV and X-ray dimming regions in connection with the properties of the underlying erupting flux rope.

Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Interpreting Small-Scale Structure from High Resolution Global MHD Simulations Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Antiochos, S. Bibcode: 2010AAS...21640503M Altcode: 2010BAAS...41..889M High resolution 3D MHD simulations of the solar corona are beginning to reveal how small-scale structures in the magnetic field interact with the global structure of the corona and solar wind. In particular, it has become evident that the detailed characteristics of coronal holes, especially their equatorial extensions, may be related to the source of the slow solar wind. Using structural analysis based on the squashing factor Q (Titov et al. 2002, 2008; Titov 2007) we show how small-scale structure in the magnetic field is related to the structure of the streamer belt. These results have led to a new interpretation of the source of the slow solar wind.

Research supported by NASA's Heliospheric Theory and Living With a Star Programs, and NSF/CISM. Title: Comparison of 3D and 1D Coronal Loop Simulations and Their Implied Emissions Authors: Mok, Yung; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2010AAS...21630003M Altcode: The thermal structure of coronal loops have been studied by numerous 1D simulations and a few 3D simulations. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. 1D allows high resolution with a large number of grid points to resolve the steep transition region without consuming excessive computer time. However, it provides no information on the internal structure over the loop's cross section, and lacks 3D perspective when compared with observations. 3D simulations, however, are often handicapped by limited spatial resolution. We have demonstrated the formation of coronal loops first by 3D simulation over an active region. The loops appear to be thin with uniform cross section in EUV as observed, despite the cross section expansion of the underlying flux tube. Then, we extracted the field line that threads through the loop, and did a 1D high-resolution simulation. In this approach, we used the strength of each method to validate the results. More importantly, the computed EUV emissions from the loops must be compared with observations. In this case, only 3D simulations can provide the necessary line-of-sight-integration effects and allow us to view the loops from different perspectives. Our presentation will show a realistic 3D view of the loops over an active region in EUV.

Work supported by Heliospheric Physics Theory Program of NASA Title: An MHD Model with Wave Turbulence Driven Heating and Solar Wind Acceleration Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Velli, M. Bibcode: 2010AAS...21630301L Altcode: The mechanisms responsible for heating the Sun's corona and accelerating the solar wind are still being actively investigated. However, it is largely accepted that photospheric motions provide the energy source and that the magnetic field must play a key role in the process. Three-dimensional MHD models have traditionally used an empirical prescription for coronal heating (e.g., Lionello et al. 2009), together with WKB Alfven wave acceleration of the solar wind. Recently, attention has been focused on wave turbulence driven models (e.g., Cranmer et al. 2007; Cranmer 2010) in which the heating and solar wind acceleration by Alfven waves are included self-consistently. We will demonstrate the initial implementation of this idea in an MHD model based on turbulent cascade heating in the closed-field regions (Rappazzo et al. 2007, 2008), and Alfven wave turbulent dissipation in open field regions (Verdini & Velli 2007, 2010). Title: A Model for the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind Authors: Antiochos, Spiro K.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2010AAS...21640521A Altcode: 2010BAAS...41..892A Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: The slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates at the open-closed field boundary layer, but it also has large angular width, up to 40 degrees. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We calculate with high numerical resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind and magnetic field for a Carrington rotation centered about the August 1, 2008 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results demonstrate that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere, and propose further tests of the model.

This work was supported, in part, by the NASA HTP, TR&T and SR&T programs. Title: CORHEL MHD Modeling in Support of Solar Dynamics Observatory Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V.; Wijaya, J. Bibcode: 2010AAS...21640217L Altcode: 2010BAAS...41..876L CORHEL - for Corona-Heliosphere - is a coupled set of models and tools for quantitatively modeling the ambient solar corona and solar wind in various approximations. The coronal MHD code MAS in CORHEL has been used to produce routine polytropic solutions for all of the Carrington rotations during the STEREO mission (available at www.predsci.com). The MAS code can also be used to produce solutions that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona. This more accurate representation of energy flow allows us to compute simulated EUV and X-ray emission and compare directly with observations. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model. In this paper, we describe the production of thermodynamic MHD solutions as part of CORHEL. When sufficiently calibrated data are available, the solutions will use magnetic maps derived from HMI magnetograms. These solutions will be made routinely available in support of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission, and will allow comparison with emission observations from AIA when emission kernels become available.

Work supported by the LWS Strategic Capabilities Program (NASA, NSF, and AFOSR), CISM (NSF), HTP (NASA) and the HMI team. Title: Low-Latitude Coronal Holes at the Minimum of the 23rd Solar Cycle Authors: Abramenko, Valentyna; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Linker, Jon; Mikić, Zoran; Luhmann, Janet; Lee, Christina O. Bibcode: 2010ApJ...712..813A Altcode: 2010arXiv1002.1685A Low- and mid-latitude coronal holes (CHs) observed on the Sun during the current solar activity minimum (from 2006 September 21, Carrington rotation (CR) 2048, to 2009 June 26, CR 2084) were analyzed using Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope and STEREO-A SECCHI EUVI data. From both the observations and Potential Field Source Surface modeling, we find that the area occupied by CHs inside a belt of ±40° around the solar equator is larger in the current 2007 solar minimum relative to the similar phase of the previous 1996 solar minimum. The enhanced CH area is related to a recurrent appearance of five persistent CHs, which survived during 7-27 solar rotations. Three of the CHs are of positive magnetic polarity and two are negative. The most long-lived CH was being formed during 2 days and existed for 27 rotations. This CH was associated with fast solar wind at 1 AU of approximately 620 ± 40 km s-1. The three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling for this time period shows an open field structure above this CH. We conclude that the global magnetic field of the Sun possessed a multi-pole structure during this time period. Calculation of the harmonic power spectrum of the solar magnetic field demonstrates a greater prevalence of multi-pole components over the dipole component in the 2007 solar minimum compared to the 1996 solar minimum. The unusual large separation between the dipole and multi-pole components is due to the very low magnitude of the dipole component, which is three times lower than that in the previous 1996 solar minimum. Title: Comparing eclipse observations of the 2008 August 1 solar corona with an MHD model prediction Authors: Rušin, V.; Druckmüller, M.; Aniol, P.; Minarovjech, M.; Saniga, M.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2010A&A...513A..45R Altcode: Context. The structure of the white-light and emission solar coronas and their MHD modelling are the context of our work.
Aims: A comparison is made between the structure of the solar corona as observed during the 2008 August 1 total eclipse from Mongolia and that predicted by an MHD model.
Methods: The model has an improved energy formulation, including the effect of coronal heating, conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and acceleration by Alfvén waves.
Results: The white-light corona, which was visible up to 20 solar radii, was of an intermediate type with well-pronounced helmet streamers situated above a chain of prominences at position angles of 48, 130, 241, and 322 degrees. Two polar coronal holes, filled with a plethora of thin polar plumes, were observed. High-quality pictures of the green (530.3 nm, Fe XIV) corona were obtained with the help of two narrow-passband filters (centered at the line itself and the vicinity of 529.1 nm background), with a FWHM of 0.15 nm.
Conclusions: The large-scale shape of both the white-light and green corona was found to agree well with that predicted by the model. In this paper we describe the morphological properties of the observed corona, and how it compares with that predicted by the model. A more detailed analysis of the quantitative properties of the corona will be addressed in a future publication. Title: CORHEL: A Modeling Suite for Describing the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere Authors: Linker, J. A.; Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2009AGUFMSA43A1612L Altcode: The Sun and its activity is the ultimate driver of space weather at Earth. The ambient solar corona and solar wind plays a key role in transmitting solar activity to the Earth's space environment. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagate and interact with the ambient solar wind; their geoeffectiveness is affected by this interaction. The connection of the ambient interplanetary magnetic field to CME-related shocks and impulsive solar flares determines where solar energetic particles propagate. The partitioning of the ambient solar wind into fast and slow streams is responsible for recurrent geomagnetic activity. CORHEL - for Corona-Heliosphere - is a coupled set of models and tools for quantitatively modeling the ambient solar corona and solar wind in various approximations. It includes two coronal models (the MHD model MAS, and a new implementation of the empirical WSA model) and two heliospheric models (the MHD model Enlil and a heliospheric version of MAS). The primary data input to CORHEL consists of maps of the Sun's photospheric magnetic field derived from magnetograms; data from 6 different observatories can be downloaded and processed. CORHEL solutions are available to the community at the CCMC (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) and the Predictive Science web sites (http://www.predsci.com). In this talk we describe progress in CORHEL development and the challenges that remain for transitioning modeling of the ambient corona and solar wind to an operational environment. CORHEL is supported by CISM and the LWS Strategic Capabilities Program (NASA, NSF, and AFOSR). Title: Comparing High-Resolution MHD Simulations of the Present and Preceding Solar Minima Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2009AGUFMSH13C..05M Altcode: It is now evident that the present solar minimum is characterized by unusual properties compared with those of recent solar space-age minima. In particular, when compared with the previous solar minimum (which occurred in 1996), the current cycle has an increased incidence of spotless days, a decreased polar magnetic field strength, decreased in situ magnetic field measurements at Earth orbit and Ulysses, and a decreased solar wind pressure. The present minimum is also characterized by a greater incidence of small equatorial coronal holes that do not visibly connect with the polar coronal holes. We compare high-resolution 3D MHD simulations of the corona during these two intervals to understand the nature of the difference between the present and previous solar minima. To minimize differences in the comparison, our simulations are based on magnetic field data measured with the same instrument, namely the MDI instrument aboard SOHO. We will use these simulations to explore the detailed characteristics of the corona during these two periods, with particular emphasis on understanding the key factors that produce the differences in the observed properties of the solar corona. Research supported by NASA's Heliospheric Theory and Living With a Star Programs, and NSF/CISM. Title: On the Relationship Between Coronal Heating, Magnetic Flux, and the Density of the Solar Wind Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; McComas, D. J.; Schwadron, N. A. Bibcode: 2009AGUFMSH11A1496R Altcode: The stark differences between the current solar minimum and the previous one offer a unique opportunity to develop new constraints on mechanisms for heating and acceleration of the solar wind. Following on from studies by McComas et al. (2008) and Schwadron and McComas (2008), we have used Ulysses measurements made during Ulysses' first and third orbit southern and northern polar passes (i.e., during near-solar minimum conditions) to deduce a linear relationship between proton number density (Np) and radial magnetic field strength (Br) in the high-speed quiescent solar wind. We have explored ideas that this could have resulted from interplanetary processes, or the super-radial expansion of the coronal magnetic field close to the Sun, but find that neither possibility can produce the observed relationship. Instead, we suggest that it is a natural consequence of a coronal heating law of the form Q ~ B. This interpretation is supported by the results of one-dimensional simulations, which show that Q ~ Np(1 AU) for a range of heating scale-lengths and field-line geometries. Additionally, our results suggest a systematic temporal decrease in the polar magnetic field strength during the 4 solar minimum polar passes: As the polar magnetic fields have weakened both from the spacecraft's traversal from southern to northern hemisphere, and from the previous minimum to the current one, commensurate drops in coronal heating have resulted in decreases in the density of the polar coronal-hole plasma. We have also computed the X-ray spectral radiance, which serves as an independent proxy for the power dissipated through coronal heating, to assess whether it also scales linearly with B. Title: MHD Simulations of the Interaction of Small Polarities in Coronal Holes Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2009AGUFMSH44A..05L Altcode: Coronal holes are extended regions of open magnetic field with densities significantly lower than the typical background corona. Coronal holes rotate quasi-rigidly in contrast to the underlying photosphere whose rotation rate has a strong latitudinal dependence. All proposed explanations of this phenomenon (i.e., that of Wang and Sheeley and that of Fisk and coworkers) require magnetic reconnection to explain coronal hole evolution. However, until recently, observational surveys seeking evidence of such reconnection have been inconclusive. Newer observations made by the Hinode satellite reveal events (jets) throughout coronal holes that are strongly suggestive of reconnection. We have used our MHD model to investigate magnetic reconnection in coronal holes when for small magnetic field polarities of the same sign as they are pushed closer by surface flows. We will discuss the topological aspects of our simulations and the implications for the physics of coronal holes. Title: Investigating the Topology of the “Disconnection” of Coronal Holes Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Antiochos, S. K.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2009AGUFMSH41B1665T Altcode: Using a potential-field-source-surface approximation, we construct an exact analytical model to describe the intrusion of a magnetic flux spot from the closed-field region into the polar coronal hole (CH). The spot, which has an opposite polarity compared to the surrounding field, moves across a local bulge in the CH, eventually detaching it into a separate minor CH. We show that the formation of a magnetic minimum point, its subsequent degeneration into a null point, and its bifurcation into a pair of nulls, plays a key role in this process. The separatrix field lines that emanate from the nulls form an interface between the open and closed field structures. This implies that the corresponding MHD evolution must involve magnetic reconnection to accommodate the redistribution of their magnetic fluxes. We anticipate that the reconnection outflows along the open part of the separatrix field lines may serve as a source of slow solar wind. Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Topological skeleton of the magnetic field in the neighborhood of a detached minor coronal hole; the skeleton consists of separatrix field lines emanating from two magnetic null points. The gray-shaded photospheric distribution of the squashing factor depicts the corresponding footprints of separatrix surfaces and quasi-separatrix layers. Title: Implications of the Deep Minimum for Slow Solar Wind Origin Authors: Antiochos, S. K.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2009AGUFMSH11A1502A Altcode: The origin of the slow solar wind has long been one of the most important problems in solar/heliospheric physics. Two observational constraints make this problem especially challenging. First, the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, unlike the fast wind that originates on open field lines. Second, the slow wind has substantial angular extent, of order 30 degrees, which is much larger than the widths observed for streamer stalks or the widths expected theoretically for a dynamic heliospheric current sheet. We propose that the slow wind originates from an intricate network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that emanate from the polar coronal hole regions. Using topological arguments, we show that these corridors must be ubiquitous in the solar corona. The total solar eclipse in August 2008, near the lowest point of the Deep Minimum, affords an ideal opportunity to test this theory by using the ultra-high resolution Predictive Science's (PSI) eclipse model for the corona and wind. Analysis of the PSI eclipse model demonstrates that the extent and scales of the open-field corridors can account for both the angular width of the slow wind and its closed-field composition. We discuss the implications of our slow wind theory for the structure of the corona and heliosphere at the Deep Minimum and describe further observational and theoretical tests. This work has been supported by the NASA HTP, SR&T, and LWS programs. Title: Do Closed Field Regions Contribute Plasma to the Slow Solar Wind? Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Antiochos, Spiro Bibcode: 2009shin.confE.140L Altcode: Composition differences between the fast and slow solar wind suggest that the slow solar wind plasma has a different origin than the fast wind. A natural way that a bifurcation in the plasma properties could arise is if the slow wind plasma originates from previously closed field regions in the corona. I this talk I will discuss arguments both for and against this idea, and I will illustrate mechanisms by which the streamer belt can be opened as part of the slow evolution of the corona. Title: Simulating the May 13, 2005 CME Event Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete; Titov, Viacheslav Bibcode: 2009shin.confE..57M Altcode: We will describe progress on our 3D MHD simulations of the May 13, 2005 CME Event. Title: Using MHD Models to Understand CIR Structure Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto Bibcode: 2009shin.confE..38R Altcode: Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) dominate the large-scale, ambient structure of the inner heliosphere. They result from quasi- stationary conditions at the Sun, whereby solar rotation leads to parcels of plasma with different plasma and magnetic properties becoming radially aligned. This interaction is one of the principal global dynamic processes that shape the structure of the interplanetary medium. Global MHD models provide a convenient approach for exploring the three-dimensional context of in situ observations of CIRs and understanding how this structure arises. Our model, which includes energy transport processes, such as coronal heating,conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the effects of Alfven waves, is capable of producing significantly better estimates of the plasma temperature and density in the corona than have been possible in the past. With such a model, we can compute emission in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray wavelengths, as well as scattering in polarized white light. Additionally, from our heliospheric solutions, we can deduce magnetic field and plasma parameters along specific spacecraft trajectories. In this talk, we will use MHD model solutions to review the processes that lead to the formation and evolution of CIRs, and, in particular, highlight the properties of the current solar minimum which appear to be unique in a number of respects. Title: Current Sheet Energetics, Flare Emissions, and Energy Partition in a Simulated Solar Eruption Authors: Reeves, Kathy K.; Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Forbes, Terry Bibcode: 2009shin.confE.171R Altcode: We investigate coronal energy flow during a simulated coronal mass ejection (CME). We model the CME using a 2.5D numerical MHD code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction and radiative cooling in the energy equation. We apply energy diagnostics to this numerical simulation and find that the energy is conserved to within 1% during the stages leading up to the eruption, and to within 5% during the eruption, when the current sheet is formed. These errors are most likely due to the additional numerical dissipation associated with numerical diffusion. We also examine the energy release in the current sheet as the eruption takes place. We find that Poynting flux is the dominant carrier of energy into the current sheet region, although its effect is mitigated by losses due to conductive flux and viscosity. Additionally, we examine the simulated emissions due to the flare associated with the CME and find that the simulation reproduces observed flare loop morphologies and provides an explanation for coronal dimming during eruptions. Title: Small Bipoles Interacting with a Coronal Hole: MHD Simulations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Titov, Viacheslav S.; Antiochos, Spiro Bibcode: 2009shin.confE.128L Altcode: Coronal holes are known to be the source of the fast wind and are also believed to play a key role in the formation of the slow wind; consequently, their evolution is critical for understanding how the heliospheric magnetic field connects to the Sun. In the context of field reversal, the Fisk model postulates that open flux can be transported out of coronal holes into the closed field region through interchange reconnection with small loops associated with parasitic polarities. This scenario is supported by in-situ observations, which seem to favor interchange reconnection as the only mechanism responsible for field reversal. However, it is hard to reconcile with theoretical results on the topology of coronal holes. To determine the feasibility of this mechanism, we have used our 3D MHD algorithm in spherical coordinates to study the interaction of the magnetic field of two bipoles with a coronal hole. The model uses a polytropic treatment for the energy equation and includes a self-consistent solar wind. We have prescribed as magnetic flux distribution at the lower boundary, a smoothed Kitt Peak magnetogram for Carrington Rotation 1913 (late August 1996), to which we have added two small bipoles. After reaching a relaxed state with well-defined coronal holes and a close field region inside a helmet streamer, we have introduced surface flows, which evolve the magnetic flux distribution at the boundary. We have investigated the reconfiguration of the coronal fields in response to these motions; in particular we show what happens to the open flux in the system as the bipoles move from the coronal holes into the closed field region. We have found no evidence that open flux can be injected into closed-field regions. Portions of coronal holes that may appear to have been detached are actually still connected to the main coronal hole through zero-width corridors. We conclude that interchange reconnection, by itself, does not produce the open-closed field mixture postulated by the Fisk model. On the other hand, the magnetic topology of the coronal hole boundary becomes so complex that some of the essential features of the model, in particular the open field diffusion, may prove to be an effective approximation for capturing the magnetic dynamics. Title: A novel metric for coronal MHD models Authors: Schmit, D. J.; Gibson, S.; de Toma, G.; Wiltberger, M.; Hughes, W. J.; Spence, H.; Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2009JGRA..114.6101S Altcode: 2009JGRA..11406101S In the interest of quantitatively assessing the capabilities of coronal MHD models, we have developed a metric that compares the structures of the white light corona observed with SOHO LASCO C2 to model predictions. The MAS model is compared to C2 observations from two Carrington rotations during solar cycle 23, CR1913 and CR1984, which were near the minimum and maximum of solar activity, respectively, for three radial heights, 2.5 R $\odot$ , 3.0 R $\odot$ , and 4.5 R $\odot$ . In addition to simulated polarization brightness images, we create a synthetic image based on the field topology along the line of sight in the model. This open-closed brightness is also compared to LASCO C2 after renormalization. In general, the model's magnetic structure is a closer match to observed coronal structures than the model's density structure. This is expected from the simplified energy equations used in current global corona MHD models. Title: Coronal Modeling: Present Status and Challenges for the Future* Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2009AGUSMSH22A..04L Altcode: The solar corona strongly influences space weather at Earth, via eruptive phenomena such as coronal mass ejections, and through its structure, which leads to the formation of fast solar wind streams that trigger recurrent geomagnetic activity. MHD models that address both the dynamics and structure of the solar corona have advanced considerably in recent years, but many challenges remain if these models are to provide reliable space weather forecasting tools. In this talk we describe these challenges and the prospects for meeting them. *Research supported by NASA, NSF and AFOSR. Title: Structure of the Erupting Magnetic Field in May 12 1997 CME Event Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2009SPD....40.2213T Altcode: We have studied the May 12 1997 CME event by combining two powerful tools: (1) Our numerical MHD model of erupting magnetic configurations; and (2) Our generalized method for analyzing their magnetic structure. This approach allows us to identify the building blocks of such configurations by computing all their separatrix and quasi-separatrix surfaces that play the role of interfaces between such blocks. The latter include, in particular, a flare arcade and erupting magnetic flux rope, which we relate to the observed flare ribbons and EUV dimmings of the event. This provides a solid basis for a very detailed comparison of our MHD model with observational data on this eruption. Such a comparison helps us to verify our model and understand what physical processes occur at different stages of the observed event.

This work is supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Comparing Modeled EUV and X-Ray Emission from the Global Corona with Observations Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2009SPD....40.1402M Altcode: Comparing emission in EUV and X-ray wavelengths from global coronal models provides a very sensitive constraint on coronal heating models. The ability of synthetic emission estimates to discriminate between different models increases considerably when observations are taken in many spectral lines. We will compare emission from our global 3D MHD model of the corona with EUV emission from EIT/SOHO and EUVI/SECCHI/STEREO, as well as soft X-rays from Yohkoh SXT and Hinode XRT. These constrains will help to improve our coronal heating model.

Research supported by NASA's Living With a Star Program, NASA's Heliospheric Theory Program, and NSF/CISM. Title: Computing Emissions from Active-Region Loops in 3D and High Resolution Authors: Mok, Yung; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2009SPD....40.1208M Altcode: Plasma loops are widely observed in EUV and soft X-ray over active regions, but their thermal properties and formation mechanism have be controversial. In this work, we are able to reproduce some of the loop properties by forward modeling. Using an MDI magnetogram, we constructed a mildly sheared force-free magnetic field based on parameters deduced from observation. The field was computed in unusually high spatial resolution in order to resolve the expected thin coronal loops. Although the magnetogram has fine structures at the photospheric level, the field in the corona is smooth as expected. The field lines have moderately complex connectivity. We then chose a specific heating model and computed the thermal structure in 3D. Although the overall temperature profile has only moderate spatial variations in the corona, the computed line-of-sight integrated EUV emissions show a complex system of thin plasma loops. Initial analysis shows that thermal instability leads to the time variation of the loop brightness. The lack of cross-section expansion is also apparent. The location of the loops and their relationship with the magnetic field will also be discussed.

Work supported by HTP of NASA. Computation resources provided by NAS at Ames Research Center, NASA. Title: Relating Emission to Magnetic Field Evolution in Eruptive Phenomena Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2009SPD....40.2203L Altcode: The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are frequently used to investigate coronal mass ejections (CMEs), eruptive prominences, and solar flares. The proposed mechanisms responsible for these phenomena are under still under vigorous debate. Because most MHD models use relatively simple energy equations, the debate between theorists often centers on the interpretation and comparison of magnetic field evolution in the models with corresponding features observed in emission. On the other hand, observers often look at emission images and try to deduce what magnetic evolution is occurring.

We have developed MHD models that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona. This more accurate representation of energy flow allows us to compute simulated EUV and X-ray emission and compare directly with observations. In this paper we will show examples of this modeling approach for specific CME events and describe the magnetic field evolution associated with commonly observed emission features such as dimming regions and postflare loops.

Work supported by NASA, AFOSR, and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Slip-Squashing Factors as a Measure of Three-Dimensional Magnetic Reconnection Authors: Titov, V. S.; Forbes, T. G.; Priest, E. R.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2009ApJ...693.1029T Altcode: 2008arXiv0807.2892T A general method for describing magnetic reconnection in arbitrary three-dimensional magnetic configurations is proposed. The method is based on the field-line mapping technique previously used only for the analysis of a magnetic structure at a given time. This technique is extended here so as to analyze the evolution of a magnetic structure. Such a generalization is made with the help of new dimensionless quantities called "slip-squashing factors." Their large values define the surfaces that border the reconnected or to-be-reconnected magnetic flux tubes for a given period of time during the magnetic evolution. The proposed method is universal, since it assumes only that the time sequence of evolving magnetic field and the tangential boundary flows are known. The application of the method is illustrated for simple examples, one of which was considered previously by Hesse and coworkers in the framework of the general magnetic reconnection theory. The examples help us to compare these two approaches; it reveals also that, just as for magnetic null points, hyperbolic and cusp minimum points of a magnetic field serve as favorable sites for magnetic reconnection. The new method admits a straightforward numerical implementation and provides a powerful tool for the diagnostics of magnetic reconnection in numerical models of solar-flare-like phenomena in space and laboratory plasmas. Title: Multispectral Emission of the Sun During the First Whole Sun Month: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2009ApJ...690..902L Altcode: We demonstrate that a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona can model its global plasma density and temperature structure with sufficient accuracy to reproduce many of the multispectral properties of the corona observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray emission. The key ingredient to this new type of global MHD model is the inclusion of energy transport processes (coronal heating, anisotropic thermal conduction, and radiative losses) in the energy equation. The calculation of these processes has previously been confined to one-dimensional loop models, idealized two-dimensional computations, and three-dimensional active region models. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model, and we apply it to the time period of Carrington rotation 1913 (1996 August 22 to September 18). The form of the coronal heating term strongly affects the plasma density and temperature of the solutions. We perform our calculation for three different empirical heating models: (1) a heating function exponentially decreasing in radius; (2) the model of Schrijver et al.; and (3) a model reproducing the heating properties of the quiet Sun and active regions. We produce synthetic emission images from the density and temperature calculated with these three heating functions and quantitatively compare them with observations from EUV Imaging Telescope on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the soft X-ray telescope on Yohkoh. Although none of the heating models provide a perfect match, heating models 2 and 3 provide a reasonable match to the observations. Title: Global MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere for the Whole Heliosphere Interval Authors: Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2008AGUFMSH21C..02R Altcode: Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), which runs from March 20 through April 16, 2008, and coincides with Carrington Rotation (CR) 2068 is providing a unique opportunity for both observers and modelers to collaborate in an effort to understand the three-dimensional structure and evolution of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. It builds on several previous "Whole Sun Month" intervals, which proved to be exceptionally successful. In support of WHI, we have developed a global MHD model solution for CR 2068. Our model, which includes energy transport processes, such as coronal heating, conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the effects of Alfven waves, is capable of producing significantly better estimates of the plasma temperature and density in the corona than have been possible in the past. With such a model, we can compute emission in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray wavelengths, as well as scattering in polarized white light. Additionally, from our heliospheric solutions, we can deduce magnetic field and plasma parameters along specific spacecraft trajectories. In this presentation, we make detailed comparisons of both remote solar and in situ observations with the model results. Such comparisons allow us and (3) Provide support for (or against) assumptions in the MHD model, such as which physical processes are (or are not) important. The results of these simulations (including post-processing analysis and visualization tools) will be made available to the scientific community at http://predsci.com/WHI. Title: Comparing Eclipse Observations of the August 1, 2008 Solar Corona with an MHD Model Prediction Authors: Rusin, V.; Mikic, Z.; Aniol, P.; Druckmuller, M.; Saniga, M.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2008AGUFMSH13B1524R Altcode: Total solar eclipses offer a unique opportunity to study the white light and emission coronae at high resolution. Newly developed image-processing techniques allow us to combine many individual coronal images with different exposures to produce coronal images during an eclipse that resemble those taken with radially graded filters, but with a higher quality. In a separate effort, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models have been used to predict the structure of the corona prior to eclipses, using measurements of photospheric magnetic fields on the Sun. In particular, such an MHD model was used to predict the structure of the corona for the August 1, 2008 total solar eclipse. The eclipse was observed from Altaj village, Mongolia, under perfect seeing conditions. The white-light corona was observed with 6 telescopes, with a focal lenses ranging from 200 mm to 1250 mm. The emission corona at 530.3 nm (Fe XIV) was imaged thorough a narrow passband filter with a transmission width of 0.03 nm. To separate out the 530.3 nm corona, the scattered background was substracted from a white-light coronal image taken at 529.1 nm, taken simultaneously with another narrow passband filter with a transmission width of 0.03 nm. This was the first time that the green emission corona was observed during an eclipse. We will compare the observed images with features from the predicted MHD model, including magnetic field line traces and simulated polarization brightness images. Research partially supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Small Bipoles Interacting with a Coronal Hole: MHD Simulations Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2008AGUFMSH51B1602L Altcode: Changes in the photospheric magnetic flux due to emergence, submergence, and surface flows drive the evolution of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic field. We have used our 3D MHD algorithm in spherical coordinates to study the interaction of the magnetic field of two bipoles with a coronal hole. We have prescribed as magnetic flux distribution at the lower boundary a smoothed Kitt Peak magnetogram for Carrington Rotation 1913 (late August 1996), to which we have added two small bipoles. After reaching a relaxed state, we have introduced surface flows, which evolve the magnetic flux distribution at the boundary. We have investigated the reconfiguration of coronal fields in response to these motions; in particular we show what happens to the open flux associated with the bipole when it is moved into a previously closed region. Title: Slip-Squashing Factors as a Measure of Three-Dimensional Magnetic Reconnection Authors: Titov, V. S.; Forbes, T. G.; Priest, E. R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2008AGUFMSM31A1713T Altcode: A general method for describing magnetic reconnection in arbitrary three-dimensional magnetic configurations is proposed. The method is based on the field-line mapping technique previously used only for the analysis of magnetic structure at a given time. This technique is extended here so as to analyze the evolution of magnetic structure. Such a generalization is made with the help of new dimensionless quantities called "slip-squashing factors". Their large values define the surfaces that border the reconnected or to-be-reconnected magnetic flux tubes for a given period of time during the magnetic evolution. The proposed method is universal, since it assumes only that the time sequence of the evolving magnetic field and the tangential boundary flows are known. The application of the method is illustrated for simple examples, one of which was considered previously by Hesse and coworkers in the framework of the general magnetic reconnection theory. The examples help to compare these two approaches; they reveal also that, just as for magnetic null points, hyperbolic and cusp minimum points of a magnetic field may serve as favorable sites for magnetic reconnection. The new method admits a straightforward numerical implementation and provides a powerful tool for the diagnostics of magnetic reconnection in numerical models of solar-flare-like phenomena in space and laboratory plasmas. Research partially supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Is Disconnection Necessary? Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. S. Bibcode: 2008AGUFMSH43B..08L Altcode: A number of diverse observations indicate that at least a portion of the slow solar wind plasma must originate from regions that were at one time magnetically closed (e.g., within the helmet streamer belt). The release of this material could result from closed fields expanding outward, balanced by disconnection of previously open fields, or it could occur through interchange reconnection, where open field lines reconnect with previously closed field lines. The scarcity of evidence for disconnection in interplanetary measurements has led to the idea that reconfiguration of coronal fields must occur entirely through interchange reconnection (e.g. Fisk and Schwadron 2001 ApJ 560, 425). We have performed several time-dependent MHD simulations of coronal evolution in the presence of surface flows such as differential rotation and the motion of small bipoles. We find that all three processes (disconnection, interchange reconnection, and opening of previously closed loops) occur. We discuss the implications of our work for the origin of the slow solar wind. Research supported by NASA, NSF (through CISM and the Strategic Capabilities Program) and AFOSR. Title: Global MHD Modeling of the Solar Wind and CMEs: Energetic Particle Applications Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto Bibcode: 2008AIPC.1039..279R Altcode: Global MHD models of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) can provide important insights into the physical processes associated with the eruption and evolution of CMEs and the acceleration of SEPs, and are a valuable tool for interpreting both remote solar and interplanetary in situ observations. Moreover, they represent a virtual laboratory for exploring conditions and regions of space that are not conveniently or currently accessible by spacecraft. The most energetic events typically originate from active regions on the Sun. To accurately model such regions, whilst also capturing the global corona, requires an MHD model that includes energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and corona. Equally importantly, the model must reproduce an accurate ambient solar wind through which the CME propagates. In this report, we describe the current status of modeling efforts, and present three applications that we believe are relevant in studies of energetic particles: the Alfvén speed in the corona; the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet; and CME eruptions. Title: The Formation of Coronal Loops by Thermal Instability in Three Dimensions Authors: Mok, Yung; Mikić, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2008ApJ...679L.161M Altcode: Plasma loops in solar active regions have been observed in EUV and soft X-rays for decades. Their formation mechanism and properties, however, are still not fully understood. Predictions by early models, based on 1D hydrostatic equilibria with uniform plasma heating, are not consistent with high-resolution measurements. In this Letter, we demonstrate, via 3D simulations, that a class of heating models can lead to the dynamic formation of plasma loops provided the plasma is heated sufficiently to match SXT soft X-ray measurements. We show that individual flux tubes in a 3D magnetic structure tend to stand out against their neighbors. The loops have large aspect ratios and nearly uniform cross sections in the corona, similar to those observed by EIT and TRACE. The coronal EUV emission from these thermally unstable solutions is roughly consistent with EIT measurements. The solution oscillates in time through a large-amplitude, nonlinear cycle, leading to repeated brightening and fading of the loops. Title: Exploring the CME-ICME Connection via CME Event Studies Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2008AGUSMSP24A..06M Altcode: We describe how numerical simulations of CME initiation and propagation in the heliosphere can be used to study the connection between coronal mass ejections and interplanetary magnetic clouds. The detailed relationship between the plasma and magnetic fields in solar active regions, the source regions of CMEs, and subsequent in situ measurements in interplanetary magnetic clouds, can best be studied using "CME event studies." These attempt to model a particular CME in the greatest possible detail, including the use of measured photospheric magnetic fields, to explain observations. We will describe our event studies of the May 12, 1997 SHINE CME Event, as well as the May 13, 2005 LWS Focused Science Topic CME Event. Research supported by NASA's Living With a Star Program, NASA's Heliospheric Theory Program, and NSF/CISM. Title: A Determination of the Value and Variability of the Sun's Open Magnetic Flux using a Global MHD Model Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J.; Harvey, J. W.; Hoeksema, T.; Liu, Y.; Bertello, L. Bibcode: 2008AGUSMSH44A..03R Altcode: The underlying value and variation of the Sun's open, unsigned magnetic flux is of fundamental scientific importance, yet its properties remain poorly known. For example, do long term (on the time-scale of ~ 100 years) changes in the strength of the solar magnetic field exist and do they persist through the heliosphere? If present, they may have a direct impact on space climate, including implications for the transport of cosmic rays (CRs), and as such, may affect technology, space, and even terrestrial climate. Global MHD models are capable of reproducing the structure of the large-scale solar and interplanetary magnetic field (at least in the absence of transient phenomena such as Coronal Mass Ejections), and should, in principle, be able to address this topic. However, they rely - and depend crucially - on boundary conditions derived from observations of the photospheric magnetic field. In spite of ~ 40 years of measurements, accurate estimates of the radial component of the photospheric magnetic field remain difficult to make. In this study, we attempt to find a "ground truth" estimate of the photospheric magnetic field by carefully comparing both disk magnetograms and diachronic (previously known as synoptic) maps from 6 different observatories (KPVT, SOLIS, GONG, MDI, WSO, and MWO). We find that although there is a general consensus between several of them, there are also some significant discrepancies. Using data from these observatories, we compute global heliospheric solutions for a selection of epochs during the last 3 solar cycles and compare the results with in situ observations. We apply these results to several topics related to the Sun's open flux. Title: Global MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere for the Whole Heliosphere Interval Authors: Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2008AGUSMSH53A..06R Altcode: Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), which runs from March 20 through April 16, 2008, and coincides with Carrington Rotation (CR) 2068 will provide a unique opportunity for both observers and modelers to collaborate in an effort to understand the three-dimensional structure and evolution of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. It builds on several previous "Whole Sun Month" intervals, which proved to be exceptionally successful. In support of WHI, we will develop a preliminary global MHD model solution for CR 2068. Our model, which includes energy transport processes, such as coronal heating, conduction of heat parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the effects of Alfven waves, is capable of producing significantly better estimates of the plasma temperature and density in the corona than have been possible in the past. With such a model, we can compute emission in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-ray wavelengths, as well as scattering in polarized white light. Additionally, from our heliospheric solutions, we can deduce magnetic field and plasma parameters along specific spacecraft trajectories. Detailed comparisons of both remote solar and in situ observations with the model results will allow us to: (1) Connect these disparate set of observations; (2) Infer the global structure of the inner heliosphere; (3) Provide support for (or against) assumptions in the MHD model; and (4) Explore the effects of poorly understood physical processes, such as energy transport and/or differential rotation. We will make the results of these simulations (including post-processing analysis and visualization tools) available to the scientific community at iMHD.net/WHI. Title: Understanding the Nature of "EIT" Waves Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2008AGUSMSP31D..05L Altcode: Since the first observations of EIT waves in the May 1997 CME event (Thompson et al. 1998), their origin and nature has been the subject of considerable debate. Explanation for the signatures include a fast mode shock (Uchida, 1968), fast mode waves (Wang 2000, Wu et al. 2001, Ofman & Thompson 2002, Warmuth et al. 2004, Ofman 2007), solitons (Wills-Davey et al. 2007), and opening of the magnetic field associated with the erupting CME (Attril et al. 2007, Delannee et al. 2008). We have developed MHD models that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona. This more accurate representation of energy flow allows us to compute simulated EUV and X-ray emission and compare directly with observations. We have developed an MHD simulation of the May 97 event, with many characteristics of the actual event, including waves that appear in simulated EIT images. We discuss the analysis of these waves in relation to popular hypotheses for EIT waves. Work supported by NASA and CISM, an NSF Science and Technology Center. Title: Comparison with Observations of EUV and X-Ray Emissions Calculated with Different Heating Models for Active Region 7986 Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Mok, Y. Bibcode: 2008AGUSMSP31A..03L Altcode: We have calculated the EUV and X-Ray emissions for AR 7986 in late August 1996 for different heating models using three-dimensional simulations of the magnetic field and of the thermal structure. From our simulations we have extracted time-sequences of emissions from different point of views and compared them quantitatively with the observations from SoHo EIT and Yohkoh SXT. Work supported by NASA LWS program. Title: The Sun as the Source of Heliospheric "Space Weather": A CISM Integrated Model Perspective and STEREO Inspiration Authors: Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lynch, B.; Lee, C. O.; Huttunen, E.; Liu, Y.; Toy, V.; Odstrcil, D.; Riley, P.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Arge, C.; Petrie, G.; Zhao, X.; Liu, Y.; Hoeksema, T.; Owens, M.; Galvin, A.; Simunac, K.; Howard, R.; Vourlidas, A.; Jian, L. K.; Russell, C. T. Bibcode: 2008AGUSMSH31C..01L Altcode: Models developed under the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) represent one effort that is underway to realistically simulate the Sun's physical controls over interplanetary conditions, or heliospheric "space weather", in three dimensions. This capability is critical for interpreting the latest observations from STEREO, whose goal is to enable connections to be made between what is observed in the heliosphere via distributed in-situ measurements and what is observed in the corona and heliosphere via imaging from separated 1 AU perspectives. The ways in which the CISM models are enabling the exploitation of STEREO and other observations toward increased understanding of the solar wind and coronal activity and its consequences are described. In particular, the models allow the identification of the sources of structures in the solar wind, and analyses of how the coronal context of the observed CMEs plays a key role in determining the ultimate terrestrial (and other planetary) response . Title: Numerical Simulations of Solar Wind Disturbances by Coupled Models Authors: Odstrcil, D.; Pizzo, V. J.; Arge, C. N.; Bissi, M. M.; Hick, P. P.; Jackson, B. V.; Ledvina, S. A.; Luhmann, J. G.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2008ASPC..385..167O Altcode: Numerical modeling plays a critical role in efforts to understand the connection between solar eruptive phenomena and their impacts in the near-Earth space environment and in interplanetary space. Coupling the heliospheric model with empirical, observational, and numerical coronal models is described. Results show background solar wind, evolution of interplanetary transients, connectivity of magnetic field lines, and interplanetary shocks approaching geospace. Title: Theoretical modeling for the stereo mission Authors: Aschwanden, Markus J.; Burlaga, L. F.; Kaiser, M. L.; Ng, C. K.; Reames, D. V.; Reiner, M. J.; Gombosi, T. I.; Lugaz, N.; Manchester, W.; Roussev, I. I.; Zurbuchen, T. H.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B.; Lee, M. A.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P.; Alexander, D.; Sandman, A. W.; Cook, J. W.; Howard, R. A.; Odstrčil, D.; Pizzo, V. J.; Kóta, J.; Liewer, P. C.; Luhmann, J. G.; Inhester, B.; Schwenn, R. W.; Solanki, S. K.; Vasyliunas, V. M.; Wiegelmann, T.; Blush, L.; Bochsler, P.; Cairns, I. H.; Robinson, P. A.; Bothmer, V.; Kecskemety, K.; Llebaria, A.; Maksimovic, M.; Scholer, M.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F. Bibcode: 2008SSRv..136..565A Altcode: 2006SSRv..tmp...75A We summarize the theory and modeling efforts for the STEREO mission, which will be used to interpret the data of both the remote-sensing (SECCHI, SWAVES) and in-situ instruments (IMPACT, PLASTIC). The modeling includes the coronal plasma, in both open and closed magnetic structures, and the solar wind and its expansion outwards from the Sun, which defines the heliosphere. Particular emphasis is given to modeling of dynamic phenomena associated with the initiation and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The modeling of the CME initiation includes magnetic shearing, kink instability, filament eruption, and magnetic reconnection in the flaring lower corona. The modeling of CME propagation entails interplanetary shocks, interplanetary particle beams, solar energetic particles (SEPs), geoeffective connections, and space weather. This review describes mostly existing models of groups that have committed their work to the STEREO mission, but is by no means exhaustive or comprehensive regarding alternative theoretical approaches. Title: Strongly compressible current sheets under gravitation Authors: Vainshtein, S. I.; Mikic, Z.; Rosner, R.; Sagdeev, R. Z. Bibcode: 2008arXiv0804.3789V Altcode: Many stormy events in astrophysics occur due to the sudden magnetic energy release. This is possible if a magnetic configuration abruptly changes its topology, an event usually referred to as magnetic reconnection. It is known that pure Ohmic decay is inefficient, occurring during cosmological times (due to the huge characteristic scales $L$). It is recognized that the presence of current sheets speeds up the process, but still insufficiently$^{1,2,3,4,5}$. We show that, in highly compressible and substantially gravitational media, the reconnection is fast enough to account for stormy events. Thus, highly compressible situations offer exiting opportunities in explanations of violent events, although full-scale compressible and gravitational simulations proved to be quite challenging. Title: 1997 May 12 Coronal Mass Ejection Event. I. A Simplified Model of the Preeruptive Magnetic Structure Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2008ApJ...675.1614T Altcode: 2007arXiv0711.3801T A simple model of the coronal magnetic field prior to the coronal mass ejection (CME) eruption on 1997 May 12 is developed. First, the magnetic field is constructed by superimposing a large-scale background field and a localized bipolar field to model the active region (AR) in the current-free approximation. Second, this potential configuration is quasi-statically sheared by photospheric vortex motions applied to two flux concentrations of the AR. Third, the resulting force-free field is then evolved by canceling the photospheric magnetic flux with the help of an appropriate tangential electric field applied to the central part of the AR. To understand the structure of the modeled configuration, we use the field line mapping technique by generalizing it to spherical geometry. We demonstrate that the initial potential configuration contains a hyperbolic flux tube (HFT) which is a union of two intersecting quasi-separatrix layers. This HFT provides a partition of the closed magnetic flux between the AR and the global solar magnetic field. Such a partition is approximate since the entire flux distribution is perfectly continuous. The vortex motions applied to the AR interlock the field lines in the coronal volume to form additionally two new HFTs pinched into thin current layers. Reconnection in these current layers helps to redistribute the magnetic flux and current within the AR in the flux-cancellation phase. In this phase, a magnetic flux rope is formed together with a bald patch separatrix surface wrapping around the rope. Other important implications of the identified structural features of the modeled configuration are also discussed. Title: Using Global Simulations to Relate the Three-Part Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections to In Situ Signatures Authors: Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon Bibcode: 2008ApJ...672.1221R Altcode: White-light observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) often show the classic "three-part" structure consisting of (1) a bright front; (2) a dark cavity; and (3) a bright, compact core. It has proven difficult to unambiguously associate these features with in situ measurements of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), in all but a few cases. In this study we use a global MHD model to simulate the eruption and evolution of a CME out to 0.25 AU, allowing us to continuously track these features from the Sun and through the solar wind. Our results support the generally held view that the interplanetary flux rope corresponds to the dark cavity. We find that the bright front merges with solar wind material swept up by the ICME. Thus, the sheath material found ahead of fast ejecta is in fact composed from both ambient solar wind material, as well the bright front. We also note that, in this simulation, the bright front is formed from the overlying streamer configuration from within which the CME erupted and is not itself coronal material swept up during the early phase of the eruption. The conclusions reached in this study are undoubtedly sensitive to the initial configuration and mechanism used to initiate the CME, and thus care should be taken when using them to interpret specific observations. On the other hand, they provide a unique, unbroken connection between remote solar and interplanetary observations. Ultimately, detailed comparisons between observations and simulation results may be able to constrain or even rule out some mechanisms of CME initiation. Title: What Models Tell Us About The Relationship Between CME Dynamics and Current Sheet Energetics Authors: Reeves, Kathy; Linker, Jon; Forbes, Terry; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2008cosp...37.2584R Altcode: 2008cosp.meet.2584R Observers have noted correlations between peak CME acceleration and the rise of soft X-ray flare emission. One reason given for this observation is that acceleration of the flux rope and the thermal energy release rate are are both consequences of the reconnection process, and should thus have similar time profiles. CME models provide useful frameworks for examining this question in detail. Using an analytical CME model, we find that the correlation between thermal energy release rate and flux rope acceleration is good for cases where the background magnetic field is high and the reconnection rate is fast, but that the correlation is poor for cases with low background magnetic fields and slow reconnection rates. In this analytical model, we assume that the Poynting flux into the current sheet is completely thermalized. We re-examine these results in light of recent 2.5D numerical simulations aimed at understanding the energy balance in the current sheet during an eruption. Title: Understanding Eruptive Phenomena with Thermodynamic MHD Simulations Authors: Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Titov, Viacheslav Bibcode: 2008cosp...37.1786L Altcode: 2008cosp.meet.1786L Understanding Eruptive Phenomena with Thermodynamic MHD Simulations The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are frequently used to investigate coronal mass ejections, eruptive prominences, and solar flares. A key goal of such studies is to deduce how energy stored in the magnetic field is suddenly released to drive these phenomena, for which the proposed mechanism(s) is (are) under still under vigorous debate. Because most MHD models use relatively simple energy equations, the discussion often centers on the interpretation and comparison of magnetic field evolution in the models with corresponding features observed in emission. With new capabilities to study X-ray and EUV emission from Hinode, as well as complementary observations from STEREO and SOHO, it now becomes imperative that models advance to more quantitative comparisons with emission measurements. We have developed MHD models that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona. We refer to this approach as "Thermodynamic MHD." This more accurate representation of energy flow allows us to compute simulated EUV and X-ray emission and compare directly with observations. In this talk we will show examples of this modeling approach for specific events and describe the magnetic field evolution associated with commonly observed emission features such as dimming regions and postflare loops. Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Characterization of the slow solar wind in the outer corona Authors: Abbo, Lucia; Dodero, Maria Adele; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Antonucci, Ester Bibcode: 2008cosp...37....8A Altcode: 2008cosp.meet....8A The study concerns the streamer belt observed during the minimum of solar activity with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet and HI Ly α lines, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region. Title: Understanding Eruptive Phenomena in the Hinode Era Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2007AGUFMSH51C..01L Altcode: The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are frequently used to investigate coronal mass ejections, eruptive prominences, and solar flares. A key goal of such studies is to deduce how energy stored in the magnetic field is suddenly released to drive these phenomena, for which the proposed mechanism(s) is (are) still under vigorous debate. Because most MHD models use relatively simple energy equations, the discussion often centers on the interpretation and comparison of magnetic field evolution in the models with corresponding features observed in emission. With new capabilities to study X-ray and EUV emission from Hinode, as well as complementary observations from STEREO and SOHO, it now becomes imperative that models advance to more quantitative comparisons with emission measurements. We have developed MHD models that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona. This more accurate representation of energy flow allows us to compute simulated EUV and X-ray emission and compare directly with observations. In this talk we will show examples of this modeling approach for specific events and describe the magnetic field evolution associated with commonly observed emission features such as dimming regions and postflare loops. Work supported by NASA, NSF and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Slow Solar Wind Formation Beyond the Cusp of an Helmet Streamer Authors: Rappazzo, A. F.; Velli, M.; Liewer, P.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Einaudi, G.; Dahlburg, R. Bibcode: 2007AGUFMSH21A0290R Altcode: The region beyond the cusp of an helmet streamer is characterized by the presence of a current sheet embedded in a plasma flow. In previous 3D and 2D simulations the velocity has been found, at a fixed radius, to grow from a slow value at the current sheet towards higher values towards the polar regions. The steady-state which was reached showed the bimodal characteristic of the solar wind, but the slow component did not show its characteristic variability. The velocity profile of the slow component is in fact not steady in time, and plasma density enhancements have been observed by the Large-Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). We present numerical simulations, performed with the SAIC MHD spherical code (MAS), of the region beyond the cusp of an helmet streamer from 1 R\odot up to 20 R\odot. With a sufficiently high resolution magnetic reconnection of the heliospheric current sheet is observed, which leads to the formation of density-enhanced magnetic islands that are accelerated radially outward. The reconnection process also gives rise to an acceleration profile that is not steady in time. Title: Using Global MHD Models to Interpret STEREO Observations Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Odstrcil, D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Vourlidas, A. Bibcode: 2007AGUFMSH32A0788R Altcode: The STEREO mission presents a unique opportunity to combine both remote and in situ observations from multiple vantage points, and, in particular, to provide simultaneous limb and disk-centered observations. In spite of this wealth of data, the system remains remarkably under-sampled, and reconstructing 3-D structure from the observations remains a formidable task. In this presentation we use global MHD models, which reproduce the eruption and evolution of specific CME events through the corona and past the orbit of Earth, to explore the relationship between the various remote sensing and in situ observations that would be seen at the two STEREO spacecraft. These simulations were developed as part of our contribution to NASA's Living With a Star TR&T focused science topic on the relationship between ICMEs and their solar sources. Our model, which incorporates coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiation, is capable of reproducing a wide variety of measurements, ranging from (polarized) brightness and emission images to in situ time series of magnetic and plasma parameters. Moreover, we can construct quantities that are either not directly observable, or can only be inferred locally, such as the Alfven speed, the location of the heliospheric current sheet, and the three-dimensional topology of the magnetic field. We believe that the combination of sophisticated modeling results and the exciting new measurements from the STEREO mission will allow us to address fundamental questions concerning the origin and evolution of CMEs, ultimately allowing us to develop predictive capabilities related to their potential to generate space weather effects. Title: Coronal Mass Ejection Initiation and Complex Topology Configurations in the Flux Cancellation and Breakout Models Authors: Amari, T.; Aly, J. J.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2007ApJ...671L.189A Altcode: We present some new results showing that the flux cancellation model for coronal mass ejections (CMEs) works well also in a complex-topology magnetic field. We consider as a model problem the case of the flux-cancellation-driven evolution of a quadrupolar configuration. We find that (1) during the first phase, the field evolves slowly, with a twisted flux rope in equilibrium being created at some time; (2) nonequilibrium sets in at a critical time and the configuration experiences a major global disruption. These features are similar to those previously obtained for a bipolar configuration. Some differences between the two cases are however observed: (1) the presence of an X-point above the twisted flux rope makes the expulsion of the latter much easier due to the weaker confinement near this point; this difference may be at the origin of the existence of two classes of CMEs-fast and slow; (2) the energy W(t) of the configuration remains smaller than the energy Wσ(t) of the associated totally open field, and then the disruption does not occur when W(t)~Wσ(t), as in the bipolar case. Rather we get nonequilibrium when W(t)~WSO(t), where WSO(t) is the energy of a semiopen field which has its open lines connected to the two central spots on which flux cancellation is imposed. A consequence of our results is that the topological complexity of a preerupting configuration cannot be taken as a criterion for eliminating the flux cancellation model in favor of the well-known breakout model. Title: MHD Simulations of Small Active Regions Interacting with Coronal Holes Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2007AGUFMSH22A0845L Altcode: We use our 3D MHD algorithm in spherical coordinates to study the interaction of the magnetic field of two small bipoles with that of a coronal hole. To prescribe the magnetic flux distribution at the lower boundary, we add two bipolar active regions to a smoothed Kitt Peak magnetogram for Carrington Rotation 1913 (late August 1996). Starting from a potential field extrapolation and a 1D solar wind solution, we relax the configuration until coronal holes, streamers, and the heliospheric current sheet are formed. At this point we introduce surface flows, which evolve the magnetic flux distribution at the boundary. We study the reconnection events and the changes in the distribution of closed and open magnetic flux associated with the bipolar active regions. Title: Structure and Dynamics of the Sun's Open Magnetic Field Authors: Antiochos, S. K.; DeVore, C. R.; Karpen, J. T.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2007ApJ...671..936A Altcode: 2007arXiv0705.4430A The solar magnetic field is the primary agent that drives solar activity and couples the Sun to the heliosphere. Although the details of this coupling depend on the quantitative properties of the field, many important aspects of the corona-solar wind connection can be understood by considering only the general topological properties of those regions on the Sun where the field extends from the photosphere out to interplanetary space, the so-called open field regions that are usually observed as coronal holes. From the simple assumptions that underlie the standard quasi-steady corona-wind theoretical models, and that are likely to hold for the Sun as well, we derive two conjectures as to the possible structure and dynamics of coronal holes: (1) coronal holes are unique in that every unipolar region on the photosphere can contain at most one coronal hole, and (2) coronal holes of nested polarity regions must themselves be nested. Magnetic reconnection plays the central role in enforcing these constraints on the field topology. From these conjectures we derive additional properties for the topology of open field regions, and propose several observational predictions for both the slowly varying and transient corona/solar wind. Title: Comparing Coronal Heating Models by Using Their Implied EUV and Soft X-ray Emissions Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2007AGUFMSH21A0294M Altcode: The plasma heating mechanism that maintains the coronal temperature remains poorly understood after decades of research. There have been numerous theoretical models, but none of them has been confirmed by observations. Each model has a different parametric dependence on physical quantities, such as the local magnetic field, plasma density, etc. Due to these differences, they imply different thermal structures in the solar atmosphere, leading to different characteristics in electromagnetic emissions. In this study, we examine these heating models by comparing their predicted extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-ray emissions with available observations. We use an active region as a testing ground, partly because of its brightness, and partly because its complex magnetic field can reveal the unique features of each model. From the heat source, we compute the thermal structure in the neighborhood of the active region in 3D for each model. A synthetic emission image is then computed and compared with observations. Title: Compression of the current sheet and its impact into the reconnection rate Authors: Vainshtein, S. I.; Mikić, Z.; Sagdeev, R. Bibcode: 2007arXiv0711.1666V Altcode: Numerical simulations of strongly compressible MHD corresponding to a stellar atmosphere with substantial gravity and near force-free magnetic fields show that the current sheet collapses (its width decreasing substantially). As a result, the reconnection rate increases dramatically. Title: Can Steady Heating Proportional to Magnetic Field Strength Solve the Coronal Heating Paradox? Authors: Winebarger, Amy R.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2007AAS...210.9123W Altcode: 2007BAAS...39..208W The time scale of the heating in solar corona has been studied through comparisons of observations with the results of one-dimensional hydrodynamic models for the past 30 years. Over this time, two apparently contradictory conclusions have been reached. Some observations, particularly of the hotter, shorter loops, are consistent with steady heating while other observations, particularly of longer, cooler loops, show that the loops are evolving and consistent with impulsive heating. In this poster, we investigate a possible solution to this paradox that has been heretofore overlooked, namely heating that is steady and proportional to the local magnetic field strength to some power. Short loops with near constant magnetic field along their lengths will have solutions consistent with steady heating. Long loops with large gradients in the magnetic field along their lengths will have highly stratified heating. Such heating has no steady state and hence produces dynamic solutions. We will discuss the properties of evolving loops heated with highly stratified heating functions, and we will compare them with X-ray and EUV observations. Title: 3d Simulation Of Time Dependent Emissions From Active-region Coronal Loops* Authors: Mok, Yung; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2007AAS...210.9125M Altcode: 2007BAAS...39Q.208M We investigate the coronal heating mechanism by utilizing the EUV and soft X-ray emissions from plasma loops in active regions. These radiation signatures are believed to be strongly related to the thermal structure of the loops, and therefore can be utilized as diagnostics for the heating mechanism. The very existence of these emitting loops and their formation severely constrain the heating models; namely, an arbitrary heating model may not support a plasma loop in 3D dynamically and thermally with properties consistent with observations. We have identified a class of heating models that can lead to the formation of these loops by solving a modified system of MHD equation supplemented by an energy equation to take into account the heating, radiative cooling and thermal conduction. Additional constraints are imposed by the high-resolution observations from TRACE. Although the loops observed by SXT/Yohkoh (soft X-ray) and EIT/SOHO (EUV) appear to be in a quasi-steady state, data from TRACE (EUV) indicate that the brightness of some loops is time dependent and plasma flows can be present. We scan the parameter space of these heating models and further narrow down the range to those that can reproduce the time dependent emissions which mimic the TRACE images.

*Work supported by Sun-Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA Title: The Multispectral Emission of the Sun during August 1996 Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2007AAS...210.9108L Altcode: 2007BAAS...39..205L We investigated the structure of the solar

corona during August 1996 using our 3D MHD model that includes thermal conduction along the magnetic field, radiation losses, and heating. We produced synthetic emission images in the extreme ultraviolet and X-rays and quantitatively compared the results from different heating models with observations. Title: Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona for the Total Solar Eclipse of March 29, 2006 Authors: Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2007ASPC..370..299M Altcode: We describe the use of a three-dimensional MHD model to predict the structure of the corona prior to the total solar eclipse of March 29, 2006. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic field as a boundary condition. We use a new version of our model that has an improved description of energy transport in the corona. The model allows us to predict the emission of X-ray and EUV radiation in the corona. We compare the predicted polarization brightness in the corona with four observations of the eclipse from Greece, Egypt, and Libya, and we demonstrate that the model accurately predicts the large-scale structure of the corona. We also compare X-ray emission from the model with GOES/SXI images. Title: Thermodynamic MHD Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2007AAS...210.5805L Altcode: 2007BAAS...39..168L Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) disrupt the large-scale coronal magnetic field and propel plasma and magnetic flux outward into interplanetary space. The most energetic CMEs typically originate from active regions on the Sun. Accurately modeling active regions while also capturing the entire corona requires MHD models that include energy transport (radiative losses,anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model.

The more accurate representation of energy flow in the thermodynamic MHD model allows us to to compute simulated EUV and X-ray emission as would be observed from spacecraft such as SOHO, STEREO, and Hinode. With this approach, theorists no longer get to argue what emission they think their favorite model's magnetic field evolution implies; we can actually go compute the emission and compare with observations. As an example, we show a simulation of the May 12, 1997 CME, and compare the simulated emission with observations from the actual event of dimming regions, postflare loops, and reformation of loops near the northern polar coronal hole.

Work supported by NASA, NSF and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Understanding the relationship between photospheric magnetic field observations and in situ observations of the interplanetary magnetic field Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2007AGUSMSH23C..02R Altcode: Understanding the Sun's open flux and its variability during the course of the solar cycle is important for a number of reasons. For example, recent claims that it has increased significantly over the last century may have had significant space- and even terrestrial-weather consequences. A key relationship in understanding this evolution lies between the observed photospheric magnetic field and the open flux measured in situ by spacecraft. Global potential field source surface (PFSS) and MHD models can be used to address this relationship; however, several issues make this a difficult task. First, there is controversy about how to convert un-calibrated magnetogram measurements at some solar observatories into radial magnetic fields (which are the primary input into most numerical models). Second, it is not clear what contribution coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other transient phenomena make to the observed open flux in interplanetary space. Third, it is difficult to assess what errors the different models introduce. In this study we investigate the relationship between solar observations of the photospheric magnetic field and in situ measurements by addressing each issue systematically. Here, we focus on deriving the best estimate of the photospheric magnetic field by inter-calibrating data from a number of solar observatories and assessing the sensitivity of the models to these inputs. Title: CME Initiation in Active Regions Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2007AAS...210.2916M Altcode: 2007BAAS...39..140M We describe an idealized model of CME initiation in active regions based on the mechanism of flux cancellation. This problem is characterized by the coupling of local physics (on the scale of active regions and smaller length scales) with global structures (on the solar radius scale). A model of this kind may be needed to explain the origin of fast CMEs. We will address the relationship between the photospheric shearing flows and flux cancellation mechanism that are used to energize the magnetic field and the characteristics of the pre- and post-eruptive magnetic field.

Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Understanding The Relationship Between Photospheric Magnetic Field Observations And In Situ Observations Of The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Authors: Riley, Pete; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2007AAS...21010004R Altcode: 2007BAAS...39..228R Understanding the Sun's open flux and its variability during the course of the solar cycle is important for a number of reasons. For example, recent claims that it has increased significantly over the last century may have had significant space- and even terrestrial-weather consequences. A key relationship in understanding this evolution lies between the observed photospheric magnetic field and the open flux measured in situ by spacecraft. Global potential field source surface (PFSS) and MHD models can be used to address this relationship; however, several issues make this a difficult task. First, there is controversy about how to convert un-calibrated magnetogram measurements at some solar observatories into radial magnetic fields (which are the primary input into most numerical models). Second, it is not clear what contribution coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other transient phenomena make to the observed open flux in interplanetary space. Third, it is difficult to assess what errors the different models introduce. In this study we investigate the relationship between solar observations of the photospheric magnetic field and in situ measurements by addressing each issue systematically. Here, we focus on deriving the best estimate of the photospheric magnetic field by inter-calibrating data from a number of solar observatories and assessing the sensitivity of the models to these inputs. Title: May 12 1997 CME Event: A Simplified Model of the Pre-Eruptive Magnetic Structure Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2007AAS...210.2918T Altcode: 2007BAAS...39..140T A simple model of the coronal magnetic field prior to the CME eruption on May 12 1997 is developed. First, this field is constructed by superimposing a large-scale background field and a localized bipolar field to model the active region (AR) in the potential approximation. The background field is determined from the observed photospheric normal field averaged over the longitude of the Sun. The AR field is modeled by a subphotospheric dipole whose parameters are optimized to fit the magnetic field obtained from an MDI magnetogram. Second, this potential configuration is quasi-statically sheared by photospheric vortex motions applied to two flux concentrations of the AR. Third, the resulting force-free field is then evolved by canceling the photospheric flux with the help of a flow converging to the neutral line of the AR. To understand the structure of the modeled configuration, we use a field line mapping technique generalized to spherical geometry. It is demonstrated that the initial configuration contains a hyperbolic flux tube (HFT) consisting of two intersecting quasi-separatrix layers. This HFT provides a partition of the closed magnetic flux between the AR and global solar magnetic field. Such a partition is approximate since the entire flux distribution is perfectly continuous. The vortex motions applied to the AR interlock the coronal field lines to form additionally two new HFTs pinched into thin current layers (CLs). These CLs carry the return current shielding the twisted field of the AR from a nearly potential background field. Reconnection in these CLs helps redistribute the flux in the configuration during the cancellation phase. At this phase, a magnetic flux rope is formed together with a bald patch separatrix surface wrapping around the rope. Other important implications of the identified structural features of the modeled configuration are also discussed. Title: ``Bursty'' Reconnection Following Solar Eruptions: MHD Simulations and Comparison with Observations Authors: Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Clark, Eric; Lin, Jun; Ko, Yuan-Kuen Bibcode: 2007ApJ...655..591R Altcode: Posteruptive arcades are frequently seen in the aftermath of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The formation of these loops at successively higher altitudes, coupled with the classic ``two-ribbon'' flare seen in Hα, are interpreted as reconnection of the coronal magnetic field that has been dragged outward by the CME. White-light observations of ``rays,'' which have been interpreted as being coincident with the current sheet at the reconnection site underneath the erupting CME, also provide evidence for its occurrence. ``Blobs'' occasionally seen within these rays suggest an even richer level of structure. In this report, we present numerical simulations that reproduce both the observed rays and the formation and evolution of the blobs. We compare their properties with SOHO/LASCO observations of similar structures, and relate their formation to standard theories of reconnection. Title: MHD Modeling of Active Regions with Realistic Energy Transport* Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V. Bibcode: 2006AGUFMSH33B0414L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) disrupt the large-scale coronal magnetic field and propel plasma and magnetic flux outward into interplanetary space. The fastest and most energetic CMEs typically originate from active regions on the Sun. For active region CMEs both the local active region magnetic field and the global magnetic fields due to the surrounding magnetic flux are important. Modeling active region magnetic fields presents special challenges, due to the range of scales involved and the strong magnetic fields present in active regions. This regime requires more accurate coronal models that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region. In this talk we describe MHD models of active region fields embedded in the global corona, and we discuss their eruptive properties. We discuss the implications of our work for the initiation of fast CMEs. *Work supported by NASA, NSF and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: A Comparison between Global Solar Magnetohydrodynamic and Potential Field Source Surface Model Results Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Lionello, R.; Ledvina, S. A.; Luhmann, J. G. Bibcode: 2006ApJ...653.1510R Altcode: The large-scale, steady-state magnetic field configuration of the solar corona is typically computed using boundary conditions derived from photospheric observations. Two approaches are typically used: (1) potential field source surface (PFSS) models, and (2) the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The former have the advantage that they are simple to develop and implement, require relatively modest computer resources, and can resolve structure on scales beyond those that can be handled by current MHD models. However, they have been criticized because their basic assumptions are seldom met. Moreover, PFSS models cannot directly incorporate time-dependent phenomena, such as magnetic reconnection, and do not include plasma or its effects. In this study, we assess how well PFSS models can reproduce the large-scale magnetic structure of the corona by making detailed comparisons with MHD solutions at different phases in the solar activity cycle. In particular, we (1) compute the shape of the source surface as inferred from the MHD solutions to assess deviations from sphericity, (2) compare the coronal hole boundaries as determined from the two models, and (3) estimate the effects of nonpotentiality. Our results demonstrate that PFSS solutions often closely match MHD results for configurations based on untwisted coronal fields (i.e., when driven by line-of-sight magnetograms). It remains an open question whether MHD solutions will differ more substantially from PFSS solutions when vector magnetograms are used as boundary conditions. This will be addressed in the near future when vector data from SOLIS, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, and Solar-B become incorporated into the MHD models. Title: Maximizing the Scientific Return of the Sentinels Mission using Global MHD Models Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2006AGUFMSH53C..04R Altcode: The Sentinels mission promises to provide a unique view of the acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles as well as the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A crucial component in understanding the physics associated with these processes lies in the large-scale structure of the corona and heliosphere, particularly during the eruption and propagation of fast CMEs. In this talk we review the current status of our MHD modeling efforts, focusing on Sentinels-specific science, and project forward to envisage what capabilities we may have developed by the time that the Sentinels launch (2012). In conjunction with Solar Orbiter, the farside and near-Earth Sentinels spacecraft will provide simultaneous photospheric magnetograph measurements at multiple longitudes, which will lead to major improvements in our ability to prescribe accurate, time-dependent global boundary conditions. Data returned from the inner heliospheric Sentinels will be used to validate these results. The model results can be used in a variety of ways to interpret the observations. For example, products from the model, such as the properties of CME- driven shocks and CME-associated reconnection sites can be used to interpret complex energetic particle profiles. Also, by tracing along magnetic field lines, the inferred sites of the energetic particles can be connected directly with the in situ measurements at each spacecraft. Perhaps more so than any previous mission, sophisticated models will be required to unravel the broad and disparate measurements returned by the suite of Sentinels spacecraft. Title: MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona through Differential Rotation of the Magnetic Flux Authors: Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2006AGUFMSH51A1456L Altcode: We model the evolution of the coronal magnetic field for several solar rotation using our 3D MHD algorithm in spherical coordinates. After imposing an initial magnetic flux distribution extracted from a magnetogram, we relax the system to steady state. We then evolve the magnetic flux distribution through differential rotation. The response of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic field is analyzed. Title: Goals and Progress of the LWS Focused Science Topic on the CME--ICME Connection Authors: Mikic, Z.; Deforest, C.; Devore, R.; Georgoulis, M.; Jackson, B.; Nitta, N.; Pizzo, V.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2006AGUFMSH21B..05M Altcode: Our team addresses the NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Focused Science Topic "to determine the solar origins of the plasma and magnetic flux observed in an interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME)." In short, this team is examining the CME--ICME connection. Our team was formed as a result of awards from the LWS Targeted Research &Technology competition in the fall of 2004. Our team is investigating the detailed relationship between the plasma and magnetic fields in active regions, the source regions of CMEs, and subsequent in situ measurements in interplanetary magnetic clouds. We plan to study this connection through detailed numerical simulations of CME initiation and propagation, theoretical investigations, and studies of the properties of active regions, CMEs, and magnetic clouds. We will discuss the goals of our team, how it fits into NASA's missions, and our progress so far. Research supported by NASA's Living With a Star Program. Title: Modelling Active Region Magnetic Fields in the Context of the Global Corona Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2006IAUJD...3E..61L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) disrupt the large-scale coronal magnetic field and propel plasma and magnetic flux outward into interplanetary space. The fastest and most energetic CMEs typically originate from active regions on the Sun. For active region CMEs both the local active region magnetic field and the global magnetic fields due to the surrounding magnetic flux are important. Modelling active region magnetic fields in the context of the global corona presents special challenges, due to the range of scales involved and the strong magnetic fields present in active regions. This regime requires more accurate coronal models that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region. In this talk we describe MHD models of active region fields embedded in the global corona, and we discuss their eruptive properties. We discuss the implications of our work for the initiation of fast CMEs. Work supported by NASA, NSF and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Slow Coronal Wind Composition Authors: Abbo, Lucia; Antonucci, Ester; Dodero, Maria Adele; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2006ESASP.617E..17A Altcode: 2006soho...17E..17A No abstract at ADS Title: The Evolution of the Magnetic Field Structure for the May 12, 1997 CME Event* Authors: Titov, Viacheslav; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2006SPD....37.0901T Altcode: 2006BAAS...38..235T We analyze the evolving magnetic field structure for the May 12,1997 CME event by using a three-step numerical approach. First, thecoronal magnetic field prior to the CME eruption on May 12,1997 is extrapolated in the potential approximation. Second,this configuration is then sheared and twistedquasi-statically to build up a force-free configurationwith a free magnetic energy sufficient for eruption. At thethird step, this configuration is driven to eruption bycanceling the twisted magnetic flux at the polarityinversion line. We demonstrate that the configurationcontains from the beginning a so-called hyperbolic fluxtube which is a union of two intersecting quasi-separatrixlayers. At later stages, other structural featuresdevelop in the evolving configuration. They are analyzedand related to the characteristics of the observed eruption.*Research supported by NASA and the Center for IntegratedSpace Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and TechnologyCenter). Title: Modeling the Global Solar Corona with Improved Energy Transport Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Titov, V.; Mok, Y. Bibcode: 2006SPD....37.1405M Altcode: 2006BAAS...38..244M We describe the application of a global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona that includes improved energy transport. The energy equation includes parameterized coronal heating, thermal conduction parallel to the magnetic field, radiative losses, and the acceleration due to Alfvén waves. This model makes it possible to determine the large-scale structure of the magnetic field in the corona, as well as the distribution of the solar wind velocity, plasma density, and temperature. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic field as a boundary condition. We will describe the use of the model to predict the structure of the solar corona prior to the total solar eclipse that occurred on March 29, 2006. We used magnetic fields observed on the solar disk prior to eclipse day to predict what the corona will look like during the eclipse. The estimated coronal density and temperature was used to predict the plane-of-sky polarization brightness and emission of EUV and X-ray radiation. The prediction was posted on our web site (http://iMHD.net) prior to the eclipse. We will compare the prediction with eclipse observations..Supported by NASA's Sun-Earth Connection Theory and SR&T Programs and by NSF's CISM project Title: MHD Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections: A "Simple" Event Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2006SPD....37.2202L Altcode: 2006BAAS...38Q.249L In previous work we demonstrated a fast ( 1000 km/s) eruption in an idealized model of the Sun's magnetic field around the time of the May 12, 1997 CME. The model, motivated by an MDI synoptic magnetic field map, contained the sum of a localized bipole (representing an active region) and a large scale axisymmetric magnetic field of dipolar character. Using a zero-beta MHD model, we studied the energization of this magnetic field by shearing flows in the photosphere, as well as an eruption initiated by flux cancellation. While this simple model captured the essence of the magnetic field structure, it limited our ability to compare with CME observations. We will present an improved model that has a more realistic magnetic field distribution, and we will consider the effect of the solar wind on the magnetic field structure and eruption.Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: 3D Simulations of Dynamic Coronal Loops Authors: Mok, Yung; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2006SPD....37.1704M Altcode: 2006BAAS...38Q.246M Active-region coronal loops have been observed in EUV by EIT/SOHO and TRACE and in soft X-ray by SXT/Yohkoh for many years. Although the loops observed by EIT and Yohkoh appear to be in a quasi-steady state, TRACE is able to capture their dynamic nature at high resolution, showing their brightening and fading in time. The activity, as well as the characteristics of the emissions, is believed to be strongly related to plasma heating, the major unknown factor in the energy equation and an outstanding problem in solar physics. We have constructed the thermal structure of an active region in 3D for several heating models. One of them results in a highly dynamic structure without settling into a quasi-steady state. Each flux tube has its own time variation characteristics in temperature and density. We then computed the time dependent EUV emissions of the entire region, and found that it appears to closely resemble the images seen in the TRACE movies; namely, brightening and fading of thin, EUV emitting plasma loops of nearly uniform cross section. Quantitative comparison between the results of our simulation and EIT/SXT measurements will be made.*This research is supported by the Sun-Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA. Title: On the rates of coronal mass ejections: remote solar and in situ observations Authors: Riley, P.; Cane, H.; Richardson, I. G.; Gopalswamy, N.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2006AGUSMSA21A..01R Altcode: In this study we compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulysses for almost an entire solar cycle (1996 through 2004). We find that, while the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen in situ at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. We discuss several possible causes, including: (1) the appearance of mid-latitude active regions; (2) the increased rate of high-latitude CMEs; and (3) the strength of the global solar field. We conclude that the most likely interpretation is that this divergence is due to the birth of mid-latitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs that are only partially intercepted by Earth. This conclusion is supported by the following points: (1) A similar divergence occurs between ICMEs in which magnetic clouds are observed (MCs), and those that are not; and (2) a number of pronounced enhancements in the CME rate, separated by approximately one year, are also mirrored and in ICME rate, but not obviously in the MC rate. We provide a simple geometric argument that shows that the computed CME and ICME rates are consistent with each other. The origins of the individual peaks can be traced back to unusually strong active regions on the Sun. Taken together, these results suggest that whether one observes a flux rope within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME, i.e., an observational selection effect. This conclusion is supported by models of CME eruption and evolution, which: (1) are incapable of producing a CME that does not contain an embedded flux rope; and (2) demonstrate that glancing intercepts can produce ICME-like signatures without the magnetic structures associated with a flux rope Title: Global MHD Models of the Solar Corona with Realistic Energy Transport* Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2006AGUSMSH52A..05L Altcode: Global MHD models of the corona and solar wind that use boundary conditions based on observed photospheric magnetic fields have now existed for more than a decade. Typically these models have avoided the complicated physics of the transition region by setting the ratio of specific heats (γ) to a reduced value. These "polytropic" MHD models have been successful in describing a number of aspects of coronal and heliospheric data, including the location of coronal holes, the reproduction of streamer structure as seen in white light, and the location of the heliospheric current sheet. The polytropic approach also has fundamental limitations, for example density and temperature contrasts between open and closed field regions do not match observations, and the model does not address data from EUV and X-ray emission. In this paper, we describe MHD models of the global corona that include energy transport (radiative losses, anisotropic thermal conduction, and coronal heating) in the transition region and solar corona and are capable of reproducing many emission properties as observed by SOHO and Yohkoh. These calculations are made tractable by a significant advance we have made in our ability to efficiently model the coupling between the transition region and corona. With this advance, it should be possible to routinely model the global corona, as is now possible with polytropic models. *Work supported by NASA, NSF and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: The Latitudinal Excursion of Coronal Magnetic Field Lines in Response to Differential Rotation: MHD Simulations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2006ApJ...642L..69L Altcode: Solar energetic particles, which are believed to originate from corotating interacting regions (CIRs) at low heliographic latitude, were observed by the Ulysses spacecraft even as it passed over the Sun's poles. One interpretation of this result is that high-latitude field lines intercepted by Ulysses connect to low-latitude CIRs at much larger heliocentric distances. The Fisk model explains the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in the solar corona and heliosphere as the inevitable consequence of the interaction of a tilted dipole in a differentially rotating photosphere with rigidly rotating coronal holes. We use a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) algorithm to follow the evolution of a simple model of the solar corona in response to the differential rotation of the photospheric magnetic flux. We examine the changes of the coronal-hole boundaries, the redistribution of the line-of-sight magnetic field, and the precession of field lines in the corona. Our results confirm the basic idea of the Fisk model, that differential rotation leads to changes in the heliographic latitude of magnetic field lines. However, the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in this simple ``tilted dipole'' model is too small to explain the Ulysses observations. Although coronal holes in our model rotate more rigidly than do photospheric features (in general agreement with observations), they do not rotate strictly rigidly as assumed by Fisk. This basic difference between our model and Fisk's will be explored in the future by considering more realistic magnetic flux distributions, as observed during Ulysses polar excursions. Title: The Pre-CME Sun Authors: Gopalswamy, N.; Mikić, Z.; Maia, D.; Alexander, D.; Cremades, H.; Kaufmann, P.; Tripathi, D.; Wang, Y. -M. Bibcode: 2006SSRv..123..303G Altcode: 2006SSRv..tmp...77G The coronal mass ejection (CME) phenomenon occurs in closed magnetic field regions on the Sun such as active regions, filament regions, transequatorial interconnection regions, and complexes involving a combination of these. This chapter describes the current knowledge on these closed field structures and how they lead to CMEs. After describing the specific magnetic structures observed in the CME source region, we compare the substructures of CMEs to what is observed before eruption. Evolution of the closed magnetic structures in response to various photospheric motions over different time scales (convection, differential rotation, meridional circulation) somehow leads to the eruption. We describe this pre-eruption evolution and attempt to link them to the observed features of CMEs. Small-scale energetic signatures in the form of electron acceleration (signified by nonthermal radio bursts at metric wavelengths) and plasma heating (observed as compact soft X-ray brightening) may be indicative of impending CMEs. We survey these pre-eruptive energy releases using observations taken before and during the eruption of several CMEs. Finally, we discuss how the observations can be converted into useful inputs to numerical models that can describe the CME initiation. Title: Multi-Wavelength Observations of CMEs and Associated Phenomena. Report of Working Group F Authors: Pick, M.; Forbes, T. G.; Mann, G.; Cane, H. V.; Chen, J.; Ciaravella, A.; Cremades, H.; Howard, R. A.; Hudson, H. S.; Klassen, A.; Klein, K. L.; Lee, M. A.; Linker, J. A.; Maia, D.; Mikic, Z.; Raymond, J. C.; Reiner, M. J.; Simnett, G. M.; Srivastava, N.; Tripathi, D.; Vainio, R.; Vourlidas, A.; Zhang, J.; Zurbuchen, T. H.; Sheeley, N. R.; Marqué, C. Bibcode: 2006SSRv..123..341P Altcode: 2006SSRv..tmp...60P This chapter reviews how our knowledge of CMEs and CME-associated phenomena has been improved, since the launch of the SOHO mission, thanks to multi-wavelength analysis. The combination of data obtained from space-based experiments and ground based instruments allows us to follow the space-time development of an event from the bottom of the corona to large distances in the interplanetary medium. Since CMEs originate in the low solar corona, understanding the physical processes that generate them is strongly dependant on coordinated multi-wavelength observations. CMEs display a large diversity in morphology and kinematic properties, but there is presently no statistical evidence that those properties may serve to group them into different classes. When a CME takes place, the coronal magnetic field undergoes restructuring. Much of the current research is focused on understanding how the corona sustains the stresses that allow the magnetic energy to build up and how, later on, this magnetic energy is released during eruptive flares and CMEs. Multi-wavelength observations have confirmed that reconnection plays a key role during the development of CMEs. Frequently, CMEs display a rather simple shape, exhibiting a well known three-part structure (bright leading edge, dark cavity and bright knot). These types of events have led to the proposal of the ‘`standard model’' of the development of a CME, a model which predicts the formation of current sheets. A few recent coronal observations provide some evidence for such sheets. Other more complex events correspond to multiple eruptions taking place on a time scale much shorter than the cadence of coronagraph instruments. They are often associated with large-scale dimming and coronal waves. The exact nature of these waves and the physical link between these different manifestations are not yet elucidated. We also discuss what kind of shocks are produced during a flare or a CME. Several questions remain unanswered. What is the nature of the shocks in the corona (blast-wave or piston-driven?) How they are related to Moreton waves seen in Hα? How they are related to interplanetary shocks? The last section discusses the origin of energetic electrons detected in the corona and in the interplanetary medium. “Complex type III-like events,”which are detected at hectometric wavelengths, high in the corona, and are associated with CMEs, appear to originate from electrons that have been accelerated lower in the corona and not at the bow shock of CMEs. Similarly, impulsive energetic electrons observed in the interplanetary medium are not the exclusive result of electron acceleration at the bow shocks of CMEs; rather they have a coronal origin. Title: An Introduction to Theory and Models of CMEs, Shocks, and Solar Energetic Particles Authors: Mikić, Z.; Lee, M. A. Bibcode: 2006SSRv..123...57M Altcode: 2006SSRv..tmp...64M We present a brief introduction to the essential physics of coronal mass ejections as well as a review of theory and models of CME initiation, solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration, and shock propagation. A brief review of the history of CME models demonstrates steady progress toward an understanding of CME initiation, but it is clear that the question of what initiates CMEs has still not been solved. For illustration, we focus on the flux cancellation model and the breakout model. We contrast the similarities and differences between these models, and we examine how their essential features compare with observations. We review the generation of shocks by CMEs. We also outline the theoretical ideas behind the origin of a gradual SEP event at the evolving CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock and the origin of “impulsive” SEP events at flare sites of magnetic reconnection below CMEs. We argue that future developments in models require focused study of “campaign events” to best utilize the wealth of available CME and SEP observations. Title: CME Theory and Models Authors: Forbes, T. G.; Linker, J. A.; Chen, J.; Cid, C.; Kóta, J.; Lee, M. A.; Mann, G.; Mikić, Z.; Potgieter, M. S.; Schmidt, J. M.; Siscoe, G. L.; Vainio, R.; Antiochos, S. K.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2006SSRv..123..251F Altcode: 2006SSRv..tmp...59F This chapter provides an overview of current efforts in the theory and modeling of CMEs. Five key areas are discussed: (1) CME initiation; (2) CME evolution and propagation; (3) the structure of interplanetary CMEs derived from flux rope modeling; (4) CME shock formation in the inner corona; and (5) particle acceleration and transport at CME driven shocks. In the section on CME initiation three contemporary models are highlighted. Two of these focus on how energy stored in the coronal magnetic field can be released violently to drive CMEs. The third model assumes that CMEs can be directly driven by currents from below the photosphere. CMEs evolve considerably as they expand from the magnetically dominated lower corona into the advectively dominated solar wind. The section on evolution and propagation presents two approaches to the problem. One is primarily analytical and focuses on the key physical processes involved. The other is primarily numerical and illustrates the complexity of possible interactions between the CME and the ambient medium. The section on flux rope fitting reviews the accuracy and reliability of various methods. The section on shock formation considers the effect of the rapid decrease in the magnetic field and plasma density with height. Finally, in the section on particle acceleration and transport, some recent developments in the theory of diffusive particle acceleration at CME shocks are discussed. These include efforts to combine self-consistently the process of particle acceleration in the vicinity of the shock with the subsequent escape and transport of particles to distant regions. Title: Modeling interplanetary coronal mass ejections Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Odstrcil, Dusan Bibcode: 2006AdSpR..38..535R Altcode: Heliospheric models of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) propagation and evolution provide an important insight into the dynamics of CMEs and are a valuable tool for interpreting interplanetary in situ observations. Moreover, they represent a virtual laboratory for exploring conditions and regions of space that are not conveniently or currently accessible by spacecraft. In this report, we summarize our recent advances in modeling the properties and evolution of CMEs in the solar wind. We describe our current state of research with three examples: (1) interpreting the global context of in situ observations; (2) identifying new phenomena in the simulations; and (3) differentiating between CME initiation models. We conclude by discussing what topics will likely be important for models to address in the future. Title: Multi-Wavelength Observations of CMEs and Associated Phenomena Authors: Pick, M.; Forbes, T. G.; Mann, G.; Cane, H. V.; Chen, J.; Ciaravella, A.; Cremades, H.; Howard, R. A.; Hudson, H. S.; Klassen, A.; Klein, K. L.; Lee, M. A.; Linker, J. A.; Maia, D.; Mikic, Z.; Raymond, J. C.; Reiner, M. J.; Simnett, G. M.; Srivastava, N.; Tripathi, D.; Vainio, R.; Vourlidas, A.; Zhang, J.; Zurbuchen, T. H.; Sheeley, N. R.; Marqué, C. Bibcode: 2006cme..book..341P Altcode: This chapter reviews how our knowledge of CMEs and CME-associated phenomena has been improved, since the launch of the SOHO mission, thanks to multi-wavelength analysis. The combination of data obtained from space-based experiments and ground based instruments allows us to follow the space-time development of an event from the bottom of the corona to large distances in the interplanetary medium. Since CMEs originate in the low solar corona, understanding the physical processes that generate them is strongly dependant on coordinated multi-wavelength observations. CMEs display a large diversity in morphology and kinematic properties, but there is presently no statistical evidence that those properties may serve to group them into different classes. When a CME takes place, the coronal magnetic field undergoes restructuring. Much of the current research is focused on understanding how the corona sustains the stresses that allow the magnetic energy to build up and how, later on, this magnetic energy is released during eruptive flares and CMEs. Multiwavelength observations have confirmed that reconnection plays a key role during the development of CMEs. Frequently, CMEs display a rather simple shape, exhibiting a well known three-part structure (bright leading edge, dark cavity and bright knot). These types of events have led to the proposal of the "standard model" of the development of a CME, a model which predicts the formation current sheets. A few recent coronal observations provide some evidence for such sheets. Other more complex events correspond to multiple eruptions taking place on a time scale much shorter than the cadence of coronagraph instruments. They are often associated with large-scale dimming and coronal waves. The exact nature of these waves and the physical link between these different manifestations are not yet elucidated. We also discuss what kind of shocks are produced during a flare or a CME. Several questions remain unanswered. What is the nature of the shocks in the corona (blast-wave or piston-driven?) How they are related to Moreton waves seen in Hα? How they are related to interplanetary shocks? The last section discusses the origin of energetic electrons detected in the corona and in the interplanetary medium. "Complex type III-like events," which are detected at hectometric wavelengths, high in the corona, and are associated with CMEs, appear to originate from electrons that have been accelerated lower in the corona and not at the bow shock of CMEs. Similarly, impulsive energetic electrons observed in the interplanetary medium are not the exclusive result of electron acceleration at the bow shocks of CMEs; rather they have a coronal origin. Title: An Introduction to Theory and Models of CMEs, Shocks, and Solar Energetic Particles Authors: Mikić, Z.; Lee, M. A. Bibcode: 2006cme..book...57M Altcode: We present a brief introduction to the essential physics of coronal mass ejections as well as a review of theory and models of CME initiation, solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration, and shock propagation. A brief review of the history of CME models demonstrates steady progress toward an understanding of CME initiation, but it is clear that the question of what initiates CMEs has still not been solved. For illustration, we focus on the flux cancellation model and the breakout model. We contrast the similarities and differences between these models, and we examine how their essential features compare with observations. We review the generation of shocks by CMEs. We also outline the theoretical ideas behind the origin of a gradual SEP event at the evolving CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock and the origin of "impulsive" SEP events at flare sites of magnetic reconnection below CMEs. We argue that future developments in models require focused study of "campaign events" to best utilize the wealth of available CME and SEP observations. Title: CME Theory and Models Authors: Forbes, T. G.; Linker, J. A.; Chen, J.; Cid, C.; Kóta, J.; Lee, M. A.; Mann, G.; Mikić, Z.; Potgieter, M. S.; Schmidt, J. M.; Siscoe, G. L.; Vainio, R.; Antiochos, S. K.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2006cme..book..251F Altcode: This chapter provides an overview of current efforts in the theory and modeling of CMEs. Five key areas are discussed: (1) CME initiation; (2) CME evolution and propagation; (3) the structure of interplanetary CMEs derived from flux rope modeling; (4) CME shock formation in the inner corona; and (5) particle acceleration and transport at CME driven shocks. In the section on CME initiation three contemporary models are highlighted. Two of these focus on how energy stored in the coronal magnetic field can be released violently to drive CMEs. The third model assumes that CMEs can be directly driven by currents from below the photosphere. CMEs evolve considerably as they expand from the magnetically dominated lower corona into the advectively dominated solar wind. The section on evolution and propagation presents two approaches to the problem. One is primarily analytical and focuses on the key physical processes involved. The other is primarily numerical and illustrates the complexity of possible interactions between the CME and the ambient medium. The section on flux rope fitting reviews the accuracy and reliability of various methods. The section on shock formation considers the effect of the rapid decrease in the magnetic field and plasma density with height. Finally, in the section on particle acceleration and transport, some recent developments in the theory of diffusive particle acceleration at CME shocks are discussed. These include efforts to combine self-consistently the process of particle acceleration in the vicinity of the shock with the subsequent escape and transport of particles to distant regions. Title: The Pre-CME Sun Authors: Gopalswamy, N.; Mikić, Z.; Maia, D.; Alexander, D.; Cremades, H.; Kaufmann, P.; Tripathi, D.; Wang, Y. -M. Bibcode: 2006cme..book..303G Altcode: The coronal mass ejection (CME) phenomenon occurs in closed magnetic field regions on the Sun such as active regions, filament regions, transequatorial interconnection regions, and complexes involving a combination of these. This chapter describes the current knowledge on these closed field structures and how they lead to CMEs. After describing the specific magnetic structures observed in the CME source region, we compare the substructures of CMEs to what is observed before eruption. Evolution of the closed magnetic structures in response to various photospheric motions over different time scales (convection, differential rotation, meridional circulation) somehow leads to the eruption. We describe this pre-eruption evolution and attempt to link them to the observed features of CMEs. Small-scale energetic signatures in the form of electron acceleration (signified by nonthermal radio bursts at metric wavelengths) and plasma heating (observed as compact soft X-ray brightening) may be indicative of impending CMEs. We survey these pre-eruptive energy releases using observations taken before and during the eruption of several CMEs. Finally, we discuss how the observations can be converted into useful inputs to numerical models that can describe the CME initiation. Title: Numerical Modeling of Solar Wind and Interplanetary CMEs Authors: Odstrcil, D.; Arge, C. N.; Linker, J. A.; Liu, Y.; Mikic, Z.; Pizzo, V. J.; Riley, P.; Zhao, X. P. Bibcode: 2006cosp...36.3424O Altcode: 2006cosp.meet.3424O Numerical modeling plays a critical role in efforts to understand the connection between solar eruptive phenomena and their impacts in the near-Earth space environment and in interplanetary space The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling CISM was established to aid in developing models for space weather research and forecasting We will show examples of existing capabilities of the heliospheric modeling system driven by various coronal models and its application to simulation of real events Title: CISM space weather modeling of the Sun-to-Earth system Authors: Wang, W.; Burns, A. G.; Hughes, W. J.; Linker, J. A.; Luhmann, J. G.; Lyon, L. G.; Mikic, Z.; Odstrcil, D.; Solomon, S. C.; Wiltberger, M. Bibcode: 2006cosp...36.2569W Altcode: 2006cosp.meet.2569W The Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling CISM simulates the entire Solar-terrestrial system by coupling several codes together These codes range from the solar corona to the earth s upper atmosphere and include the MAS solar corona model the ENIL solar wind model the LFM magnetosphere code and the thermosphere ionosphere TING model Several additional models such as the solar SEP model the RCM inner magnetosphere model and a radiation belt model are also included to provide additional information about space weather events The CISM suite of models is coupled using Intercomm for interprocess communication and Overture for grid interpolation This suite of models has been successfully run to simulate a CME that propagates through the heliosphere to affect the geospace environment and is being validated and verified for observed events Visualization tools have also been developed both to analyze model results and to facilitate the transition of the CISM model to operational use Title: The Impact of the Magnetic Field Structure on May 12, 1997 CME Event* Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2005AGUFMSH13A0284T Altcode: We analyze the evolving magnetic field structure in May 12, 1997 CME event by using a numerical model constructed in the following three steps. First, an analytical model of the coronal magnetic field prior to the CME eruption on May 12, 1997 is developed in the current-free approximation. It is constructed by superimposing a large-scale background field and a localized bipole field to model the active region. The parameters of the model are optimized to fit the potential field obtained from an MDI magnetogram. Second, this configuration is then sheared and twisted in a quasi-static manner to build up a force-free configuration with a free magnetic energy sufficient for eruption. At the third step, this configuration is driven to eruption by canceling the twisted magnetic flux at the polarity inversion line. We demonstrate that the configuration contains from the beginning the so-called hyperbolic flux tube which is a union of two intersecting quasi-separatrix layers. At later stages, other structural features are developing in the evolving configuration. They are analyzed and related to the characteristics of the observed eruption. *Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Unraveling STEREO Observations with Global MHD Models Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Clark, E. Bibcode: 2005AGUFMSH11B0261R Altcode: The STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) mission will employ two nearly identical spacecraft to study CME initiation and evolution through the inner heliosphere and understand how energetic particles are accelerated in the corona and solar wind. To accomplish these goals, one spacecraft will drift ahead of Earth and the other will trail behind, leading to a unique set of stereoscopic measurements of the solar environment. In this study use global MHD simulations of CME initiation and evolution to anticipate similarities and differences between measurements that will be made by the two STEREO spacecraft during the lifetime of the mission. In addition, we attempt to use these same simulated observations to reconstruct the three-dimensional properties of CMEs and the ambient solar wind. We assess to what extent this procedure is successful by comparing the reconstructed results with the original global simulation results. Finally, we demonstrate a prototype GUI-driven tool that merges STEREO spacecraft trajectories and viewpoints with our simulations to provide a global context for interpreting STEREO observations. Title: MHD Modeling of the Latitudinal Excursion of Magnetic Field Lines in the Solar Corona Authors: Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2005AGUFMSH11A0250L Altcode: In the Fisk model differential rotation on the solar photosphere is thought to cause large excursions of magnetic field lines in the upper corona and in the heliosphere. This is in contrast with the apparently rigid rotation of some coronal holes. The model of Fisk et al. (1999) consists of a dipole field with the magnetic axis distinct from the rotation axis. The field from the northern and southern polar holes superexpands into the solar wind. In order to reconcile the pattern of velocity in the upper corona with the photospheric differential flow, magnetic reconnection is invoked between open field lines and low-lying loops. This mechanism releases the plasma trapped in the closed field lines into the corona and originates the slow solar wind. We have used our MHD model in spherical coordinates to study this mechanism. We have imposed a magnetic flux distribution as in Fisk et al. (1999). After relaxing the system to steady state, we have applied differential rotation for the equivalent of 5 rotations. We will describe the changes in the coronal magnetic field in respo nse to the photospheric flows. Title: MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 CME Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2005AGUFMSH13A0283L Altcode: In previous work we constructed an idealized model of the coronal magnetic field on May 11, 1997, preceding the CME that occurred on the following day. The model, motivated by an MDI synoptic magnetic field map, contained the sum of a localized bipole (representing an active region) and a large scale axisymmetric magnetic field of dipolar character. Using a zero-beta MHD model, we studied the energization of this magnetic field by shearing flows in the photosphere, as well as an eruption initiated by flux cancellation. While this simple model captured the essence of the magnetic field structure, it limited our ability to compare with CME observations. We will present an improved model that has a more realistic magnetic field distribution, and we will consider the effect of the solar wind on the magnetic field structure and eruption. Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Time-Dependent Response of the Large-Scale Solar Corona Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2005ESASP.596E..28L Altcode: 2005ccmf.confE..28L No abstract at ADS Title: How Good are Potential Field Source Surface Models? What the MHD Modelers Don't Want you to Know Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Ledvina, S. Bibcode: 2005AGUSMSH23C..02R Altcode: The large-scale, steady-state magnetic field configuration of the solar corona is typically computed using boundary conditions derived from photospheric observations. The two most popular approaches in use today are: (1) potential field, source surface (PFSS) models; and (2) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The former have the advantage that they are: simple to develop and implement; require relatively modest computer resources; and can resolve global structure on spatial scales beyond those that can be handled by current MHD models. On the other hand, they have been criticized because their basic assumptions (that the field is potential and that a single, spherical source surface exists) are seldom, if ever, met. In addition, PFSS models cannot directly incorporate time dependent phenomena, such as magnetic reconnection. In this study, we assess how well PFSS models can reproduce the large-scale quasi-static magnetic structure of the corona by making detailed comparisons with MHD solutions at different phases in the solar activity cycle. Specifically, we: (1) compute the shape of the source surface as inferred from the MHD solutions; (2) compare the coronal hole boundaries as determined using the two models; and (3) correlate the open flux determined from the models with the magnetic flux observed at 1 AU. Our results suggest that PFSS models compare relatively well with MHD computations of untwisted coronal fields (matched to line-of-sight magnetograms). It remains an open question how well PFSS models compare with MHD models that match vector magnetograms. This question can be addressed once data from SOLIS and Solar-B are incorporated into the MHD models. Title: The Effects of Differential Rotation on the Magnetic Structure of the Solar Corona: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Riley, Pete; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2005ApJ...625..463L Altcode: Coronal holes are magnetically open regions from which the solar wind streams. Magnetic reconnection has been invoked to reconcile the apparently rigid rotation of coronal holes with the differential rotation of magnetic flux in the photosphere. This mechanism might also be relevant to the formation of the slow solar wind, the properties of which seem to indicate an origin from the opening of closed magnetic field lines. We have developed a global MHD model to study the effect of differential rotation on the coronal magnetic field. Starting from a magnetic flux distribution similar to that of Wang and coworkers, which consists of a bipolar magnetic region added to a background dipole field, we applied differential rotation over a period of 5 solar rotations. The evolution of the magnetic field and of the boundaries of coronal holes are in substantial agreement with the findings of Wang and coworkers. We identified examples of interchange reconnection and other changes of topology of the magnetic field. Possible consequences for the origin of the slow solar wind are also discussed. Title: The Evolution of MHD Modeling: Coupling Local and Global Scales Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V. S.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2005AGUSMSH11B..02M Altcode: We will describe how MHD models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere have evolved over the years to include a more comprehensive coupling of local physics (on the scale of active regions and smaller length scales) with global structures (on the solar radius scale). In particular, we will discuss our efforts to understand the thermal and magnetic structure and dynamics of active regions and their coupling to the global structure of the solar corona. We will discuss initiation of CMEs that originate in active regions, and their propagation in the inner heliosphere. Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Investigating the Coronal Heating Models at High Resolution Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2005AGUSMSP41A..02M Altcode: Active regions are an excellent testing ground for coronal heating models because of their complex magnetic-field topology. Due to their distinctive parametric dependences on the magnetic field and plasma properties, each heating mechanism tends to deposit energy in preferential locations. The thermal structure of the atmosphere is further made distinctive by the local magnetic field through the highly anisotropic thermal conductivity. As a result, each heating model gives rise to unique radiation signatures, including EUV and soft X-ray. The observed EUV and soft X-ray emissions can then be used to test the validity of the models. Unfortunately, computing the thermal structure in 3D encounters tremendous difficulty because of the extremely steep gradients in temperature and density in the transition region, even using a variable-size mesh. In our previous investigations, we were forced to use an approximated thermal conductivity and compute the structure at low resolution. We have developed a new, and improved, method to treat the transition region so that the radiation signatures are not affected by the approximations. Quantitative comparison with observations becomes possible and will be presented. Using this highly efficient method, we have also studied the coronal responses to time dependent heating. Work supported by The Sun-Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA Title: Modeling Active Region Coronal Mass Ejections* Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2005AGUSMSH54B..05L Altcode: The fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) typically originate from active regions on the Sun. From a theoretical standpoint, fast CMEs are the most difficult to understand and model, because they require that large amounts of magnetic energy (1032 ergs) be released rapidly (~1000 seconds). We describe MHD computations of eruptive behavior in an active region arising from the flux cancellation mechanism. The active region is modeled as a localized bipole within a global dipolar configuration, and is similar to the solar magnetic flux for the May 12, 1997 CME. We find that a localized 3D configuration erupts as a consequence of flux cancellation, in the same way that 2D axisymmetric and large-scale 3D fields erupt. We discuss the role of the interaction of the local active region magnetic field with the global magnetic fields due to the surrounding magnetic flux, as well the implications of our work for the initiation of fast CMEs. *Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: The Thermal Structure of AR 8038 During the May 1997 Event Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Mok, Y. Bibcode: 2005AGUSMSH51C..07L Altcode: During May 1997 active region AR 8038 was the site from which all solar flares originated. In particular, on May 12 a halo CME was associated with the only major flare of the day. We present a study of the thermal structure of AR 8038 obtained using our computational MHD model. Our algorithm solves the resistive and viscous full MHD equations in 3D. The energy equation includes thermal conduction parallel to the magnetic field, a radiation loss term, and parametric heating. The surface magnetic flux is prescribed as boundary condition. The initial potential field is sheared to obtain an energized configuration. Then we advance the MHD/thermodynamic model and look for a steady state. From the plasma properties it is possible to calculate emissions in the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray bands and compare the images with the observations. Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Structural Analysis of the Pre-Eruptive Magnetic Field for the May 12, 1997 CME Event* Authors: Titov, V. S.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2005AGUSMSH54B..06T Altcode: A simple analytical model of the coronal magnetic field prior to the CME eruption on May 12, 1997 is developed in the current-free approximation. The magnetic field is constructed by superimposing a large-scale background field and a localized bipole field to model the active region. The background field is determined from the normal component of the observed photospheric magnetic field averaged over the longitude of the Sun. The influence of the solar wind is taken into account by imposing a source-surface boundary condition that makes the field radial at a specified radius. The field of the active region is modeled with the help of a subphotospheric dipole whose strength, location, and orientation are optimized to fit the magnetic field obtained from an MDI magnetogram. A corresponding force-free magnetic field is developed then by shearing and twisting the potential configuration. The structure of the potential and force-free configurations is analyzed and related to the characteristics of the observed eruption. *Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Calculating the Thermal Structure of Solar Active Regions in Three Dimensions Authors: Mok, Yung; Mikić, Zoran; Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 2005ApJ...621.1098M Altcode: We describe a technique to obtain the temperature and density distribution in an active region for a specified plasma heating model. The technique can be applied in general to determine the magnetic field and thermal structure self-consistently. For simplicity, we illustrate the application of this technique in the limit of small plasma β, in which the plasma dynamics decouples from that of the magnetic field, a good approximation in active regions, in which the magnetic field is strong. We select a particular active region, observed in 1996 August, to demonstrate the methodology. We apply the technique to a force-free magnetic field with a plasma heating model in which the volumetric coronal heating rate is directly proportional to the strength of the local magnetic field, and we compute the expected extreme-ultraviolet and soft X-ray emissions from the resulting thermal structure. We compare our solutions with one-dimensional loop models and analytic loop scaling laws. In the future, we plan to compare these emission images with those obtained by the SOHO EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) and the Yohkoh Soft X-Ray Telescope (SXT) and to explore the relationship between coronal emission and various coronal heating models. Title: Relationship Between Plasma Heating and Coronal Emissions Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2004AGUFMSH13A1159M Altcode: The physical mechanisms that deposit energy into the coronal plasma and dissipate it as heat have been speculated for decades, and yet remain inconclusive. Many theoretical models have been proposed and need to be validated by observation. To distinguish these models, we take advantage of the complex magnetic-field structure and the spatial inhomogeneity of an active region, and compute the thermal structure in 3-D using the heating mechanism from each of the proposed theories. Distinctive thermal structures are expected from different heating models. As a result, each model has a unique signature in its emissions in EUV and soft X-ray that are observable by EIT/SOHO and SXT/Yohkoh. In our study, we survey the available models and compare their predicted emissions with observations. Work supported by Sun Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA Title: What Can We Deduce about Coronal Mass Ejections from STEREO observations? Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2004AGUFMSH21D..03L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been a topic of considerable scientific interest for many years. Despite years of study, many questions remains unanswered. What is the 3D structure of CMEs? How do we relate the white-light images of CMEs near the Sun to the in situ properties of ICMEs? What initiates CMEs? The STEREO mission promises to yield an impressive array of images and in situ measurements that can be brought to bear on these questions. The challenges facing the solar and heliospheric community is to utilize this data to unravel the structure and dynamics of CMEs. In this talk we will use 3D MHD simulations of CMEs to illustrate some of the challenges we face in deducing the structure of CMEs from 3 different viewpoints. We will discuss how models may help to reduce these uncertainties. Research supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Using global MHD simulations to relate the Three-Part Structure of CMEs to in situ observations Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Odstrcil, D.; Webb, D. F.; Zurbuchen, T. H. Bibcode: 2004AGUFMSH24A..07R Altcode: The classic three-part structure of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in white light observations consisting of a bright front, cavity, and dense core has generally been interpreted as swept-up material, magnetic flux rope, and prominence/filamentary material. Usually, however, there is no clear relationship between these observations and in situ observations of CMEs, or magnetic clouds, in particular. In this study we use a coupled coronal and heliospheric MHD model to relate these disparate observations. The simulations, while idealized, reproduce many of the features found in solar observations, and suggest that the spacecraft's trajectory through the CME plays a dominant role in the type of signatures observed. To track these features through the heliosphere, we use an ensemble of tracer particles. We also exploit the mapping of these tracer particles to explore how compositional profiles associated with the CME evolve as they move away from the Sun. Title: Modeling Flux Cancellation in Active Regions Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Titov, V.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2004AGUFMSH21B0401M Altcode: We will present a study of the flux cancellation mechanism in a model of an active region. We will explore the interaction of the local magnetic field in the active region with the global magnetic fields due to the weak surrounding magnetic flux. The goal will be to see if a localized 3D configuration erupts as a consequence of flux cancellation, in the same way that 2D axisymmetric and large-scale 3D fields erupt. Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: MHD Modeling of Differential Rotation Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2004AGUFMSH13A1157L Altcode: In the Fisk model differential rotation on the solar photosphere is thought to cause large excursions of magnetic field lines in the upper corona and in the heliosphere. This is in contrast with the apparently rigid rotation of some coronal holes. The model of Fisk et al. (1999) consists of a dipole field with the magnetic axis distinct from the rotation axis. The field from the northern and southern polar holes superexpands into the solar wind. In order to reconcile the pattern of velocity in the upper corona with the photospheric differential flow, magnetic reconnection is invoked between open field lines and low-lying loops. This mechanism releases the plasma trapped in the closed field lines into the corona and originates the slow solar wind. We have used our MHD model in spherical coordinates to study this mechanism. We have imposed a magnetic flux distribution as in Fisk et al. (1999). After relaxing the system to steady state, we have applied differential rotation for the equivalent of 5 rotations. We will describe the changes in the coronal magnetic field in response to the photospheric flows. Title: Coupled model simulation of a Sun-to-Earth space weather event Authors: Luhmann, Janet G.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Linker, Jon A.; Lyon, John G.; Mikic, Zoran; Odstrcil, Dusan; Wang, Wenbin; Wiltberger, Michael Bibcode: 2004JASTP..66.1243L Altcode: 2004JATP...66.1243L This paper describes the 3D simulation of a space weather event using the coupled model approach adopted by the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM). The simulation employs corona, solar wind, and magnetosphere MHD models, and an upper atmosphere/ionosphere fluid dynamic model, with interfaces that exchange parameters specifying each component of the connected solar terrestrial system. A hypothetical coronal mass ejection is launched from the Sun by a process emulating photospheric field changes such as are observed with solar magnetographs. The associated ejected magnetic flux rope propagates into a realistically structured solar wind, producing a leading interplanetary shock, sheath, and magnetic cloud. These reach 1 AU where the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters are used to drive the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupled model in the same manner as upstream in situ measurements. The simulated magnetosphere responds with a magnetic storm, producing enhanced convection and auroral energy inputs to the upper atmosphere/ionosphere. These results demonstrate the potential for future studies using a modular, systemic numerical modeling approach to space weather research and forecasting. Title: Initial coupling of coronal and heliospheric numerical magnetohydrodynamic codes Authors: Odstrcil, Dusan; Pizzo, Victor J.; Linker, Jon A.; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2004JASTP..66.1311O Altcode: 2004JATP...66.1311O Coupling of coronal and heliospheric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) codes represents an efficient modular approach to numerical simulations of physical phenomena occurring on different spatial and temporal scales. Using specialized models makes it possible to: (1) treat efficiently the very different physics relevant in coronal and interplanetary regimes; (2) deal with different time-step constraints for coronal and heliospheric simulations; and (3) optimize and update individual system components with the latest understanding. We present results on the coupling of coronal and heliospheric numerical MHD codes developed within the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling. We discuss 2-D parametric studies conducted to verify the computational coupling procedure and to assess the accuracy of merging physically and numerically different models. Title: Fitting flux ropes to a global MHD solution: a comparison of techniques Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikić, Z.; Odstrcil, D.; Hidalgo, M. A.; Cid, C.; Hu, Q.; Lepping, R. P.; Lynch, B. J.; Rees, A. Bibcode: 2004JASTP..66.1321R Altcode: 2004JATP...66.1321R Flux rope fitting (FRF) techniques are an invaluable tool for extracting information about the properties of a sub-class of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. However, it has proven difficult to assess their accuracy since the underlying global structure of the CME cannot be independently determined from the data. In contrast, large-scale MHD simulations of CME evolution can provide both a global view as well as localized time series at specific points in space. In this study we apply five different fitting techniques to two hypothetical time series derived from MHD simulation results. Independent teams performed the analysis of the events in "blind tests", for which no information, other than the time series, was provided. From the results, we infer the following: (1) Accuracy decreases markedly with increasingly glancing encounters; (2) Correct identification of the boundaries of the flux rope can be a significant limiter; and (3) Results from techniques that infer global morphology must be viewed with caution. In spite of these limitations, FRF techniques remain a useful tool for describing in situ observations of flux rope CMEs. Title: The photospheric boundary of Sun-to-Earth coupled models Authors: Abbett, W. P.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. A.; McTiernan, J. M.; Magara, T.; Fisher, G. H. Bibcode: 2004JASTP..66.1257A Altcode: 2004JATP...66.1257A The least understood component of the Sun-to-Earth coupled system is the solar atmosphere—the visible layers of the Sun that encompass the photosphere, chromosphere, transition region and low corona. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), principal drivers of space weather, are magnetically driven phenomena that are thought to originate in the low solar corona. Their initiation mechanism, however, is still a topic of great debate. If we are to develop physics-based models with true predictive capability, we must progress beyond simulations of highly idealized magnetic configurations, and develop the techniques necessary to incorporate observations of the vector magnetic field at the solar photosphere into numerical models of the solar corona. As a first step toward this goal, we drive the SAIC coronal model with the complex magnetic fields and flows that result from a sub-photospheric MHD simulation of an emerging active region. In particular, we successfully emerge a twisted Ω-loop into a pre-existing coronal arcade.

To date, it is not possible to directly measure the magnetic field in the solar corona. Instead, we must rely on non-potential extrapolations to generate the twisted, pre-eruptive coronal topologies necessary to initiate data-driven MHD simulations of CMEs. We therefore investigate whether a non-constant-α force-free extrapolation can successfully reproduce the magnetic features of a self-consistent MHD simulation of flux emergence through a stratified model atmosphere. We generate force-free equilibria from simulated photospheric and chromospheric vector magnetograms, and compare these results to the MHD calculation. We then apply these techniques to an IVM (Mees Solar Observatory) vector magnetogram of NOAA active-region 8210, a source of a number of eruptive events on the Sun. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of Interplanetary CMEs Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2004ITPS...32.1415R Altcode: Heliospheric models of coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation and evolution provide an important insight into the dynamics of CMEs and are a valuable tool for interpretating interplanetary in situ observations. Moreover, they represent a virtual laboratory for exploring conditions and regions of space that are not conveniently or currently accessible by spacecraft. We summarize our recent advances in modeling the properties and evolution of CMEs in the solar wind. We describe our current state of research with three examples: 1) interpreting the global context of in situ observations; 2) identifying new phenomena in the simulations; and 3) computing geoeffective phenomena. We conclude by discussing what topics will likely be important for models to address in the future. Title: Effects of Heating Mechanism and Field Line Topology on the Thermal Structure of an Active Region Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2004AAS...204.5608M Altcode: 2004BAAS...36..763M The thermal structure above an active region is strongly influenced by the complex magnetic field through two mechanisms, plasma heating and thermal conduction. The field line topology determines the path of the heat flow, and the varying cross-section of the flux tube affects its flow rate. Magnetic energy is believed to be the ultimate source responsible for heating the plasma, although the conversion mechanism is not yet understood. We chose Active Region 7986 (August, 1996) to study in details the influence of the magnetic field on the thermal structure. Based on the magnetogram, we have constructed several possible magnetic topologies for this region. Together with these field structures, we use a number of plasma heating models to construct the possible thermal structures in 3-D. The resulting EUV and Soft X-ray emissions are computed from these models to show their possible appearance and measure their resemblance to observations. Title: Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2004AAS...204.6706L Altcode: 2004BAAS...36..784L Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that are propelled outward from the sun. CMEs are an important aspect of Space Weather at Earth, as they are believed to be the primary cause of nonrecurrent geomagnetic storms. In this talk, we compare eruptions generated by the "flux cancellation" (Linker et al., Phys. Plasmas 10, 1971, 2003) and "breakout" (Antiochos et al., ApJ 512, 985, 1999) models and discuss how these mechanisms might be distinguished by coronal and interplanetary observations.

Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Modelling CMEs in the Heliosphere Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2004cosp...35.1011R Altcode: 2004cosp.meet.1011R Heliospheric models of Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) propagation and evolution provide an important insight into the dynamics of CMEs and are a valuable tool for interpretating interplanetary in situ observations. Moreover, they represent a virtual laboratory for exploring conditions and regions of space that are not conveniently or currently accessible by spacecraft. In this talk we summarize our recent advances in modeling the properties and evolution of CMEs in the solar wind. In particular, we focus on: interpretation of the global context of in situ observations; identification of new phenomena in the simulations; computation of geo-effective phenomena; and simulations of specific case events. We conclude by discussing what topics will likely be important for models to address in the future. Title: Comparison of Observed Coronal EUV and X-Ray Emission with that from Heating Models Authors: Lionello, R.; Mok, Y.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2003AGUFMSH42D..06L Altcode: The problem of finding the physical mechanism that heats the solar corona is still unsolved. Many theoretical and observational models have been proposed in the literature. In order to understand which model better reproduces the observations, we present a quantitative comparison between the emission calculated from different heating models and the observed images of an active region. This investigation uses our 3D MHD model in Cartesian coordinates, which calculates the magnetic configuration of Active Region 7986 (August, 1996) starting from a photospheric magnetogram, and another algorithm that solves the 3D fluid equations along magnetic field lines, and that includes thermal conduction, radiation losses, and the heating mechanism under investigation. Once the plasma properties are found, the emission in different wavelengths can be calculated using the Solarsoft package and can be compared with the photon counts recorded by the EIT instrument aboard the SOHO spacecraft, and the SXT instrument aboard the Yohkoh satellite. Title: Eruptive Behavior Originating in Active Regions Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.; Amari, T. Bibcode: 2003AGUFMSH41A..04L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are spectacular manifestations of solar acitivy. These immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic field are propelled outward from the sun with velocities as high as 2000 km/s. The fastest CMEs typically originate from active regions on the Sun. MHD models of the eruption of large scale coronal fields have demonstrated significant energy release in idealized 2D (Antiochos et al., ApJ 512, 985, 1999) and 3D (Linker et al., Phys. Plasmas 10, 1971, 2003) geometry. Eruptive behavior has also been shown for a 3D localized arcade (Amari et al., ApJ 529, L49, 2000). In active regions on the Sun, both the localized field due to the active region and the overlying fields in the large scale corona are important. We describe MHD computations of the eruptive behavior of a localized active region field (modeled as a localized bipole) within a large-scale dipolar configuration. We discuss the differences between this more realistic configuration and the idealized configurations that have been considered previously. Work supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Constraints on the structure and evolution of the coronal magnetic field from in situ observations Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2003AGUFMSH41D..01R Altcode: In this talk we briefly review current theories of the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field. We address how measurements of the coronal magnetic field can be connected to in situ observations through numerical models, and likewise, how in situ observations can be connected back to both solar observations and model results. We focus on deviations from the ideal Parker spiral (e.g., radial field lines, under-winding, over-winding, magnetic flux variations, transient phenomena, etc) from near-Earth spacecraft as well as Ulysses, and ask to what extent these observations can place constraints on theories of the structure and evolution of the coronal magnetic field. Title: Modeling the Large-Scale Corona Surrounding an Active Region Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2003AGUFMSH42B0510M Altcode: Recent advances in our 3D MHD computational model have extended our capability to study the detailed structure of an active region, particularly how it is embedded in the magnetic field of surrounding large-scale coronal streamers. Our spherical MHD code now gives us the capability of concentrating the mesh points in an active region, where the magnetic field is strong, while at the same time modeling the weaker field of the large-scale corona of the whole Sun. It is thus possible to study the interaction of the active-region magnetic field with that of the Sun's overlying large-scale dipolar magnetic field. We will show the active-region/streamer structure for particular simulations of the solar minimum corona. These kind of simulations will be the starting point for the study of fast CMEs that originate in active regions. Research supported by NASA and the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (an NSF Science and Technology Center). Title: Coronal Mass Ejection: Initiation, Magnetic Helicity, and Flux Ropes. II. Turbulent Diffusion-driven Evolution Authors: Amari, T.; Luciani, J. F.; Aly, J. J.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2003ApJ...595.1231A Altcode: We consider a three-dimensional bipolar magnetic field B, occupying a half-space, which is driven into evolution by the slow turbulent diffusion of its normal component on the boundary. The latter is imposed by fixing the tangential component of the electric field and leads to flux cancellation. We first present general analytical considerations on this problem and then construct a class of explicit solutions in which B keeps evolving quasi-statically through a sequence of force-free configurations without exhibiting any catastrophic behavior. Thus, we report the results of a series of numerical simulations in which B evolves from different force-free states, the electric field on the boundary being imposed to have a vanishing electrostatic part (the latter condition is not enforced in the analytical model, and thus it is possible a priori for the results of the two types of calculations to be different). In all the cases, we find that the evolution conserves the magnetic helicity and exhibits two qualitatively different phases. The first one, during which a twisted flux rope is created, is slow and almost quasi-static, while the second one is associated with a disruption, which is confined for a small initial helicity and global for a large initial helicity. Our calculations may be relevant for modeling the coronal mass ejections that have been observed to occur in the late dispersion phase of an active region. In particular, they may allow us to understand the role played by a twisted flux rope in these events. Title: Three-Dimensional Magnetohydrodynamics of the Solar Corona and of the Solar Wind with Improved Energy Transport Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2003AIPC..679..222L Altcode: We have developed a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona and of the solar wind. We specify a magnetic flux distribution on the solar surface and integrate the time dependent MHD equations to steady state. The model originally employed a polytropic energy equation. In order to improve the physics in our algorithm, we have incorporated thermal conduction along the magnetic field, radiation losses, and heating into the energy equation. The 2D version of the model is able to reproduce the contrast in density between the open and closed magnetic structures in the corona and the fast and slow streams of the solar wind. We now present preliminary results of 3D MHD simulations with improved thermodynamics. The results can be tested against observations by spacecraft and Earth based observatories, in situ solar wind and magnetic field measurements, heliospheric current sheet crossings. Title: Understanding the Solar Sources of In Situ Observations Authors: Riley, Pete; Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon; Zurbuchen, Thomas H. Bibcode: 2003AIPC..679...79R Altcode: The solar wind can, to a good approximation be described as a two-component flow with fast, tenuous, quiescent flow emanating from coronal holes, and slow, dense and variable flow associated with the boundary between open and closed magnetic fields. In spite of its simplicity, this picture naturally produces a range of complex heliospheric phenomena, including the presence, location, and orientation of corotating interaction regions and their associated shocks. In this study, we apply a two-step mapping technique, incorporating a magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar corona, to bring in situ observations from Ulysses, WIND, and ACE back to the solar surface in an effort to determine some intrinsic properties of the quasi-steady solar wind. In particular, we find that a ``layer'' of ~35,000 km exists between the Coronal Hole Boundary (CHB) and the fast solar wind, where the wind is slow and variable. We also derive a velocity gradient within large polar coronal holes (that were present during Ulysses' rapid latitude scan) as a function of distance from the CHB. We find that v = 713 km/s + 3.2 d, where d is the angular distance from the CHB boundary in degrees. Title: 3-D simulations of ICMEs by coupled coronal and heliospheric models Authors: Odstrcil, D.; Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Pizzo, V. J. Bibcode: 2003ESASP.535..541O Altcode: 2003iscs.symp..541O We overview the main features and approximations of the heliospheric modeling system based on a 3-D ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that can be driven by various analytic, empirical, and numerical models of the solar corona. Results are presented for two different self-consistent simulations of Sun-to-Earth transient events: (1) propagation of an interplanetary magnetic flux rope driven by the 3-D MHD coronal model; and (2) the May 12-15, 1997 interplantary event driven by an empirical model of the ambient solar wind and fitted parameters for the halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Title: Models of Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review with A Look to The Future Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Lionello, Roberto; Odstrcil, Dusan Bibcode: 2003AIPC..679..703L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a major transient input of mass and energy into the solar wind. We review some of the past and present concepts that influence the development of models of coronal mass ejections, both for CME initiation and CME evolution and propagation in the solar wind. We use the flux cancellation model to illustrate present research on CMEs. Primarily for convenience, modeling of CME propagation has usually been treated separately from the initiation problem. We suggest that future computational modeling of interplanetary CMEs is likely to emphasize the need to study coronal initiation and solar wind propagation together. Title: Using an MHD simulation to interpret the global context of a coronal mass ejection observed by two spacecraft Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Odstrcil, D.; Zurbuchen, T. H.; Lario, D.; Lepping, R. P. Bibcode: 2003JGRA..108.1272R Altcode: In late February 1999 the ACE spacecraft observed a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 1 AU, in the ecliptic plane. Thirteen days later, Ulysses observed a CME at 5 AU and 22°S. We present a detailed analysis of the plasma, magnetic field, and composition signatures of these two events. On the basis of this comparison alone, it is not clear that the two spacecraft observed the same solar event. However, using a generic MHD simulation of a fast CME initiated at the Sun by magnetic flux cancellation and propagated out into the solar wind, together with additional evidence, we argue that indeed the same CME was observed by both spacecraft. Although force-free models appear to fit the observed events well, our simulation results suggest that the ejecta underwent significant distortion during its passage through the solar wind, indicating that care should be taken when interpreting the results of force-free models. Comparison of composition measurements at the two spacecraft suggests that significant spatial inhomogeneities can exist within a single CME. Title: Dynamical evolution of the inner heliosphere approaching solar activity maximum: interpreting Ulysses observations using a global MHD model Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2003AnGeo..21.1347R Altcode: In this study we describe a series of MHD simulations covering the time period from 12 January 1999 to 19 September 2001 (Carrington Rotation 1945 to 1980). This interval coincided with: (1) the Sun's approach toward solar maximum; and (2) Ulysses' second descent to the southern polar regions, rapid latitude scan, and arrival into the northern polar regions. We focus on the evolution of several key parameters during this time, including the photospheric magnetic field, the computed coronal hole boundaries, the computed velocity profile near the Sun, and the plasma and magnetic field parameters at the location of Ulysses. The model results provide a global context for interpreting the often complex in situ measurements. We also present a heuristic explanation of stream dynamics to describe the morphology of interaction regions at solar maximum and contrast it with the picture that resulted from Ulysses' first orbit, which occurred during more quiescent solar conditions. The simulation results described here are available at: http://sun.saic.com. Title: Parametric Dependence of Coronal Heating Mechanisms and Active-Region Emissions Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2003SPD....34.0403M Altcode: 2003BAAS...35..810M The thermal structure of an active region depends on the mechanism that heats the coronal plasma. A number of coronal heating mechanisms have been proposed over the years. They have different parametric dependences on the magnetic field, plasma density, and possibly other variables. Different mechanisms result in different thermal structures, and therefore, different EUV and soft X-ray emissions from an active region. Hence, the comparison between the computed emissions based on these models and the observed emissions will help to discover the parametric dependences of the actual heating mechanism and put some restrictions on the theoretical models. We have developed a 3D thermo-magnetohydrodynamic code to compute the thermal structure of an active region. The emissions resulted from various heating models will be compared with the images obtained from SOHO and Yohkoh.

This work is supported by the Sun-Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA. Title: Coronal Mass Ejection: Initiation, Magnetic Helicity, and Flux Ropes. I. Boundary Motion-driven Evolution Authors: Amari, T.; Luciani, J. F.; Aly, J. J.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2003ApJ...585.1073A Altcode: In this paper we study a class of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model problems that may be useful to understand the role of twisted flux ropes in coronal mass ejections. We construct in a half-space a series of force-free bipolar configurations with different helicity contents and bring them into an evolution by imposing to their footpoints on the boundary slow motions converging toward the inversion line. For all the cases that have been computed, this process leads, after a phase of quasi-static evolution, to the formation of a twisted flux rope by a reconnection process and to the global disruption of the configuration. In contrast with the results of some previous studies, however, the rope is never in equilibrium. It thus appears that the presence of a rope in the preeruptive phase is not a necessary condition for the disruption but may be the product of the disruption itself. Moreover, the helicity keeps an almost constant value during the evolution, and the problem of the origin of the helicity content of an eruptive configuration appears to be that of the initial force-free state. In addition to these numerical simulations, we report some new relations for the time variations of the energy and the magnetic helicity and develop a simple analytical model in which the magnetic field evolution exhibits essential features quite similar to those observed during the quasi-static phase in the numerics. Title: Acceleration region of the slow solar wind in corona Authors: Abbo, L.; Antonucci, E.; Mikić, Z.; Riley, P.; Dodero, M. A.; Giordano, S. Bibcode: 2003MmSAI..74..733A Altcode: We present the results of a study concerning the physical parameters of the plasma of the extended corona in the low-latitude and equatorial regions, in order to investigate the sources of the slow solar wind during the minimum of solar activity. The equatorial streamer belt has been observed with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO from August 19 to September 1, 1996. The spectroscopic diagnostic technique applied in this study, based on the OVI 1032, 1037 Ålines, allows us to determine both the solar wind velocity and the electron density of the extended corona. The main result of the analysis is the identification of the acceleration region of the slow wind, whose outflow velocity is measured in the range from 1.7 up to 3.5 solar radii. Title: 3-D MHD simulations of CMEs by coupled coronal and heliospheric models Authors: Odstrcil, D.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Pizzo, V. J.; Luhmann, J. G. Bibcode: 2002ESASP.506...95O Altcode: 2002ESPM...10...95O; 2002svco.conf...95O Merging of coronal and heliospheric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models is demonstrated for a 3-D idealized case involving a magnetic flux rope, shock, streamer belt, and current sheet. The disruption of a sheared helmet streamer launches a coronal mass ejection (CME, simulated by the coronal model), which evolves during its propagation through interplanetary space (simulated by the heliospheric model). These models employ different physical approximations and numerical grids to simulate physical phenomena over their respective spatial and temporal domains. The coupled simulations enables self-consistent tracking of transient disturbances from their origin in the solar atmosphere to their geoeffective consequences at the Earth. Title: CME Evolution in the Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R.; Odstrcil, D. Bibcode: 2002AGUFMSH61A0433L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields with velocities as high as 2000 km/s, are a major transient input of mass and energy into the solar wind. We are using time-dependent 2D and 3D MHD computations to study the evolution of CMEs. A simulated CME is initiated by flux cancellation at the photosphere. The calculation follows the eruption and the subsequent propagation of a magnetic flux rope to 1 AU. We discuss the evolutionary properties of the CME, both near the Sun and beyond the Alfven and sonic points. We also examine the properties likely to be inferred about the flux rope from simulated time series data obtained when the flux rope passes over hypothetical spacecraft at different positions. Work supported by NASA and NSF. Title: Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona During the December 4, 2002 Total Solar Eclipse Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2002AGUFMSH52A0468M Altcode: We describe the application of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to the prediction of the structure of the corona during the total solar eclipse that is expected to occur on 4 December 2002. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic field as a boundary condition. This model makes it possible to determine the large-scale structure of the magnetic field in the corona, as well as the distribution of the solar wind velocity, plasma density, and temperature. We will use magnetic fields observed on the solar disk prior to eclipse day to predict what the corona will look like during the eclipse. The estimated coronal density and temperature will be used to predict the plane-of-sky polarization brightness and emission of UV radiation prior to the eclipse. The prediction will be posted on our web site (http://haven.saic.com) prior to the eclipse. Title: Magnetic Field Topology in Prominences Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Amari, Tahar Bibcode: 2002ApJ...581..718L Altcode: We present a study of the magnetic field lines of a prominence using MHD and thermodynamic/hydrodynamic (TH) models. Previous modeling of prominences has tended to emphasize either magnetic field modeling or TH modeling in isolation. In this paper, we combine these approaches to model a long-lived filament observed in 1996 August-September. In our new approach, we (1) use magnetograms to prescribe the boundary conditions for the magnetic flux in three-dimensional MHD simulations, (2) show that observed magnetic flux changes can produce a fluxrope and that the dipped (concave upward) portion of the field lines form in the approximate location of the observed prominence, and (3) show that TH computations, using the computed geometry of magnetic field lines that are in three-dimensional MHD equilibrium, have condensations forming in the dipped portions of the field lines. Title: Merging of coronal and heliospheric numerical two-dimensional MHD models Authors: Odstrcil, D.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Pizzo, V. J.; Luhmann, J. G. Bibcode: 2002JGRA..107.1493O Altcode: Space weather research requires investigation of a complex chain of coupled dynamic phenomena occurring simultaneously on various spatial and temporal scales between the Sun and Earth. Specialized physically based numerical models have been developed to address particular aspects of the entire system. However, an integrated modeling approach is necessary to provide a complete picture suitable for interpretation of various remote and in situ observations and for development of forecasting capabilities. In this paper we demonstrate merging of coronal and heliospheric MHD models for a two-dimensional hypothetical case involving a magnetic cloud, shock, streamer belt, and current sheet. The disruption of a sheared helmet streamer launches a coronal mass ejection (CME) (simulated by the coronal model), which evolves during its propagation through interplanetary space (simulated by the heliospheric model). These models employ different physical approximations and numerical grids to simulate physical phenomena over their respective spatial and temporal domains. The merging of the models enables accurate tracking of a CME from its origin in the solar atmosphere to its arrival at Earth. Title: Evidence of Posteruption Reconnection Associated with Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Odstrcil, D.; Pizzo, V. J.; Webb, D. F. Bibcode: 2002ApJ...578..972R Altcode: Using a coupled 2.5-dimensional, time-dependent MHD model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere, we have simulated the eruption and evolution of a coronal mass ejection containing a flux rope all the way from the Sun to 1 AU. Although idealized, we find that the simulation reproduces many generic features of magnetic clouds. In this paper we report on a new, intriguing aspect of these comparisons. Specifically, the results suggest that jetted outflow, driven by posteruptive reconnection underneath the flux rope, occurs and may remain intact out to 1 AU and beyond. We present an example of a magnetic cloud with precisely these signatures and show that the velocity perturbations are consistent with reconnection outflow. We suggest that other velocity and/or density enhancements observed trailing magnetic clouds may be signatures of such reconnection and, in some cases, may not be associated with prominence material, as has previously been suggested. Title: The solar wind at solar maximum: comparisons of EISCAT IPS and in situ observations Authors: Breen, A. R.; Riley, P.; Lazarus, A. J.; Canals, A.; Fallows, R. A.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2002AnGeo..20.1291B Altcode: The solar maximum solar wind is highly structured in latitude, longitude and in time. Coronal measurements show a very high degree of variability, with large variations that are less apparent within in situ spacecraft measurements. Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations from EISCAT, covering distances from 20 to 100 solar radii (RS), are an ideal source of information on the inner solar wind and can be used, therefore, to cast light on its evolution with distance from the Sun. Earlier comparisons of in situ and IPS measurements under solar minimum conditions showed good large-scale agreement, particularly in the fast wind. In this study we attempt a quantitative comparison of measurements made over solar maximum by EISCAT (20 100 RS) and the Wind and Ulysses spacecraft (at 215 RS and 300 1000 RS, respectively). The intervals studied were August September 1999, May 2000, September 2000 and May 2001, the last-named being the period of the second Ulysses fast latitude scan. Both ballistic and when possible MHD/ballistic hybrid models were used to relate the data sets, and we compare the results obtained from these two mapping methods. The results of this study suggest that solar wind velocities measured in situ were less variable than those estimated from IPS measurements closer to the Sun, with the greatest divergence between IPS velocities and in situ measurements occurring in regions where steep longitudinal velocity gradients were seen in situ. We suggest that the interaction between streams of solar wind with different velocities leads to "smoothing" of solar wind velocities between 30 60 Title: The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2002STIN...0267741M Altcode: This report covers technical progress during the fourth quarter of the second year of NASA Sun-Earth Connections Theory Program (SECTP) contract "The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere," NAS5-99188, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and covers the period May 16, 2001 to August 15, 2001. Under this contract SAIC and the University of California, Irvine (UCI) have conducted research into theoretical modeling of active regions, the solar corona, and the inner heliosphere, using the MHD (magnetohydrodynamic) model. Title: Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2002JGRA..107.1136R Altcode: In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results. Title: MHD Modeling of CMEs near the Sun Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2002AAS...200.6508R Altcode: 2002BAAS...34..752R Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are spectacular events involving the expulsion of significant amounts of solar material and energy into the heliosphere. In spite of their importance, the physical mechanisms leading to their eruption are not well known. In this talk, we review how the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fluid description is applied to model the initiation and evolution of CMEs near the Sun. In particular, we describe: how the ambient solar corona is first established; how energy is stored in the corona prior to eruption; and how either magnetic shear and/or flux cancellation can subsequently lead to the eruption of magnetic flux ropes with different physical properties. Research supported by NASA and NSF. Title: 3-D Simulation of Thermal Structure of Solar Active Regions Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2002AAS...200.0212M Altcode: 2002BAAS...34..641M The density-temperature profile of the atmosphere above an active region fundamentally affects its characteristic photon emissions, including UV, EUV and soft X-ray. Measurements made by Yohkoh, SOHO, and TRACE of the bright, magnetic-field aligned, plasma loops partially reveal the possible combinations of local plasma density and temperature of these magnetic structures. We have studied the underlying physics that leads to the unique combination of density and temperature, as well as their spatial dependence, of the plasma that gives rise to the characteristic EM emissions. The physical mechanisms include heat deposition, radiative cooling and the highly anisotropic, highly nonlinear thermal conduction. The 3-D simulation is very demanding on computing resources due the sharp temperature gradient in the lower transition region that ultimately requires a physical resolution of 10 km in a domain of 100000 km. We have devised a method to simplify the computation based on the physical assumption that the plasma beta in an active region is sufficiently low that the flows are primarily along the field lines. The 3-D results agree well with a heuristic 1-D loop model for the density- temperature profiles along individual field lines. Using a vector magnetogram of an active region, we have computed the magnetic field for both potential and force-free cases, their respective thermal structures and soft X-ray emissions. * Work supported by The Sun-Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA. Title: A Three-dimensional MHD Model of Solar Corona and Solar Wind with Improved Energy Transport Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2002AAS...200.0302L Altcode: 2002BAAS...34R.641L A three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona and of the solar wind has been developed. A magnetic flux distribution is specified on the solar surface and the time dependent MHD equations are integrated to steady state. The model originally employed a polytropic energy equation. In order to improve the physics in our algorithm, thermal conduction along the magnetic field, radiation losses, and heating have been incorporated into the energy equation. The 2D version of the model is able to reproduce the contrast in density between the open and closed magnetic structures in the corona and the fast and slow streams of the solar wind. We now present preliminary results of 3D MHD simulations with improved thermodynamics. The results can be tested against observations by spacecraft and Earth based observatories, in situ solar wind and magnetic field measurements, heliospheric current sheet crossings. Title: Modeling CMEs in the Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2002AGUSMSH22D..02L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields with velocities as high as 2000 km/s, are a major transient input of mass and energy into the solar wind. CMEs typically appear as loop-like features that disrupt helmet streamers in the solar corona. The interplanetary manifestation of CMEs is often, but not always, as flux ropes or magnetic clouds. In this talk we will review models of CMEs, from their initiation and evolution in the corona to their propagation in the inner heliosphere. We will discuss how "complexity" might arise in CMEs during their passage through interplanetary space, either due to interactions with the ambient solar wind or to collisions with other CMEs. Research supported by NASA and NSF. Title: The Large-Scale Variability of Solar Wind Streams Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Lazarus, A. J. Bibcode: 2001AGUFMSH32A0729R Altcode: Fast and slow solar wind are fundamentally different. In particular, slow solar wind shows a significant and persistent variability that is absent in the fast wind. It is generally believed that this structure is driven by a combination of temporal and spatial variations, however, its origin remains poorly understood. It has been suggested, for example, that the super-radial expansion of magnetic field lines near the Sun governs the speed (and hence variability) of the solar wind. Alternatively (or in addition to), it has been proposed that the combination of differential rotation of the photosphere, together with non-radial expansion of the solar wind through approximately rigidly-rotating coronal holes leads to the opening of formerly closed magnetic structures thereby releasing plasma into the solar wind. In the first mechanism, the variability of the slow solar wind is predominantly due to spatial variations in the solar magnetic field, whereas in the second mechanism, the process is sporadic and dynamically driven. In this study we use a combination of 3-D, time-dependent MHD simulations, remote solar measurements, and in situ observations to explore the contribution of temporal and spatial variability to the overall large-scale structure of the solar wind from the solar surface to 5 AU. Title: How do emerging magnetic fields affect the solar coronal field configuration? Authors: LI, Y.; Luhmann, J. G.; Abbett, W.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2001AGUFMSH11C0719L Altcode: Experiments are carried out to study the coronal field response to an emerging active region into a simple background global magnetic field using potential field source surface models. The emerging active region used is the radial component of the magnetic field of an emerging flux rope from an ANMHD simulation. When the active region is emerging into a dipole field, it introduces polar coronal hole extensions, warps the source surface neutral lines, and changes the field line connections. The active region internal field line connections are also changed to be different from an isolated active region. The relative strength of the background and active region affect the extent of the changes that occur. The field distribution of the background global field is important, and different background with the same emerging active region may result in different coronal features. A few examples of different background fields with the emerging active region will be presented and compared. A global MHD simulation is also in preparation using the same global magnetic field with the emerging active region as the boundary condition. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic modeling of prominence formation within a helmet streamer Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikić, Z.; Amari, T. Bibcode: 2001JGR...10625165L Altcode: We present a 2.5-D axisymmetric MHD model to self-consistently describe the formation of a stable prominence that supports cool, dense material in the lower corona. The upper chromosphere and transition region are included in the calculation. Reducing the magnetic flux along the neutral line of a sheared coronal arcade forms a magnetic field configuration with a flux rope topology. The prominence forms when dense chromospheric material is brought up and condenses in the corona. The prominence sits at the base of a helmet streamer structure. The dense material is supported against gravity in the dips of the magnetic field lines in the flux rope. Further reduction in magnetic flux leads to an eruption of the prominence, ejecting material into the solar wind. Title: An empirically-driven global MHD model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2001JGR...10615889R Altcode: In this study we describe a three-dimensional MHD model of the solar corona and heliosphere. We split the modeling region into two distinct parts: the solar corona (1 solar radius, RS, to 30RS) and the inner heliosphere (30RS to 5 AU). This combined model is driven solely by the observed line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field and can thus provide a realistic global picture of the corona and heliosphere for specific time periods of interest. We use the model to illustrate heliospheric structure during three different phases of the solar cycle: (1) Carrington rotation (CR) 1913 (August 22, 1996, to September 18, 1996), which occurred near solar minimum and overlapped the ``Whole Sun Month'' campaign; (2) CR 1892 (January 27, 1995, to February 23, 1995), which occurred during the declining phase of cycle 22 and coincided with the so-called ``Ulysses rapid latitude scan'' and (3) CR 1947 (March 7, 1999, to April 4, 1999), which occurred approximately 15 months before the predicted maximum of solar cycle 23. We compare Ulysses and Wind observations with the simulation for CR 1913 and compare Ulysses observations during its traversal from pole to pole with CR 1892. We find that the simulations reproduce the overall large-scale features of the observations. We use the near-solar-maximum results to speculate on the structure of the high-latitude solar wind that Ulysses will encounter during its traversal of the southern and northern solar poles in 2000 and 2001, respectively. In particular, the results suggest that because of the presence of equatorial coronal holes the ordered pattern of corotating interaction region tilts and their associated shocks, which was observed during Ulysses' initial southward excursion in 1992, will likely disappear completely as Ulysses moves toward the south pole. We anticipate that Ulysses will encounter fast streams but will not remain within them for more than a fraction of a solar rotaton. Finally, the simulations suggest that crossings of the heliospheric current sheet will persist up to at least ~70° heliographic latitude. Title: Nature of the boundary between open and closed magnetic field line regions at the Sun revealed by composition data and numerical models Authors: Posner, Arik; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Fisk, Lennard A.; Gloeckler, George; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran; Riley, Pete Bibcode: 2001JGR...10615869P Altcode: Recently, Fisk et al. [1999] have presented a theory that describes a number of features of the large-scale coronal and heliospheric magnetic field. This theory predicts large-scale transport of magnetic flux across the boundaries of the polar coronal holes, which leads to reconnection processes of open field lines with preliminary closed magnetic structures. Reconnection processes reveal themselves in solar wind composition data: Plasma released out of previously closed magnetic field structures exhibits hotter charge state distributions and has a tendency to be enriched by elements with low first ionization potentials. The idea of reconnection at the boundaries of coronal holes is not new. For example, Wang and Sheeley [1993] and Luhmann et al. [1999] found evidence for that mechanism by comparison of observations of the rotation and evolution of coronal holes with potential field models of the solar corona. We use Ulysses Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer composition measurements and sophisticated numerical models [Linker et al., 1999; Riley et al., 1999] to accurately map these observations back to the solar surface. We then constrain the thickness of the stream interface at the Sun and compare the location of the source region with SOHO observations of the low corona. The results are discussed in the context of the global structure of the heliospheric magnetic field. Title: Interaction of Two Magnetic Loops in the Solar Corona Authors: Mok, Y.; Mikić, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2001ApJ...555..440M Altcode: The solar corona is populated by a large number of semitoroidal magnetic loops, some of which are sufficiently close to each other within a neighborhood that the probability of loop-to-loop interaction is not negligible. The interaction of two coronal loops is studied using a three-dimensional numerical simulation. The first loop is an established, current-carrying magnetic loop in hydromagnetic equilibrium. The second loop dynamically emerges from the photosphere in the same neighborhood. There are a large number of possible configurations in a two-loop system regarding their relative orientation, physical size, and directions of their toroidal magnetic field and electric current. We present three representative, but characteristically different, configurations whose interactions result in releasing various amounts of energy stored in the magnetic field. Using typical coronal parameters, some of them can take place in a relatively short timescale and release sufficient energy to account for a small flare. Title: Are There Two Classes of Coronal Mass Ejections? A Theoretical Perspective Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2001AGUSM..SH31C04L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are generally accepted as the cause of nonrecurrent geomagnetic storms at Earth. Statistical compilations of CME events have shown that CMEs launched in the corona can have a wide variation in speeds (Hundhausen et al., JGR 99, 6543, 1994). The speed of the CME at Earth and the presence or absence of an interplanetary shockwave is an important component of the geoeffectiveness; therefore, the mechanism(s) by which fast CMEs might be produced are considered to be of particular importance. Recently, the examination of the acceleration profiles of CMEs has led to the possible classification of CMEs as either constant speed CMEs or constant acceleration (St. Cyr et al., JGR 104, 12493, 1999; Sheeley et al., JGR 104, 24739, 1999). In this talk, we will examine reasons why one might expect CMEs to show two classes of acceleration profiles, and if they do, what the implications are for models of CME initiation. Examples from MHD simulations of CMEs for different initiation mechanisms will be used to illustrate essential points. Research supported by NASA and Boston University's Integrated Space Weather Modeling project (funded by NSF). Title: Modeling of CMEs from Sun to Earth with Merged Coronal and Heliospheric MHD Computations* Authors: Odstrcil, D.; Pizzo, V. J.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.; Luhmann, J. G. Bibcode: 2001AGUSM..SH62A02O Altcode: The initiation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their subsequent manifestation in interplanetary space is a topic of great interest in coronal and heliospheric science that also has important implications for understanding and predicting space weather at Earth. We demonstrate the computation of a CME initiated in the corona and its subsequent propagation to Earth orbit by the merging of coronal and heliospheric numerical MHD models. These models employ different physical approximations and numerical grids to simulate physical phenomena as well as possible over their respective spatial and temporal domains. The computation starts by developing a steady-state helmet streamer configuration with a heliospheric current sheet separating interplanetary magnetic fields of opposite polarity. The disruption of the helmet streamer by magnetic flux cancellation launches a CME (simulated by the coronal model) which evolves during its propagation through interplanetary space (simulated by the heliospheric model). The merging of the models enables accurate tracking of the CME from its origin in the solar atmosphere to its geoeffective consequences at the Earth. *This work is supported by Boston University's Integrated Space Weather Modeling project, funded by NSF. Title: Using global MHD simulations to interpret in situ observations of CMEs Authors: Riley, P.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Odstrcil, D.; Pizzo, V. J.; Zurbuchen, T. H.; Lario, D. D. Bibcode: 2001AGUSM..SH42A07R Altcode: In this study, we combine two MHD models to simulate the initiation, propagation, and dynamic evolution of flux-rope-like CMEs through the corona and out to 1 AU. The coronal model encompasses the region of the solar corona from 1 Rs to 20 Rs, while the heliospheric model encompasses 20 Rs to 1 AU. The CME is initiated in the corona and propagates smoothly across the outer boundary of the coronal solution and through the inner boundary of the heliospheric solution. The model solutions show a rich complexity, which, given the relative simplicity and idealization of the input conditions, bear a strong resemblance to many observed events, and we use the simulation results to infer the global structure of some of these observations. In particular, we highlight an event that was observed by both Ulysses and ACE in February/March, 1999. At this time, Ulysses was located at ~ 5 AU and S 22 ° heliographic latitude; thus the two spacecraft were separated significantly both in heliocentric distance and latitude. We also use these simulations to separate dynamical effects from force-free models of flux ropes in the solar wind. Title: Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona During the 21 June 2001 Total Solar Eclipse Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P. Bibcode: 2001AGUSM..SH41B24M Altcode: We describe the application of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to the prediction of the structure of the corona during the total solar eclipse that is expected to occur on 21 June 2001. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic field as a boundary condition. This model makes it possible to determine the large-scale structure of the magnetic field in the corona, as well as the distribution of the solar wind velocity, plasma density, and temperature. We will use magnetic fields observed on the solar disk prior to eclipse day to predict what the corona will look like during the eclipse. The estimated coronal density will be used to predict the plane-of-sky polarization brightness prior to the eclipse. Title: 3-D Modeling of Thermal Structure in Active Regions on the Solar Surface Authors: Mok, Y.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2001AGUSM..SH41A20M Altcode: The thermal structure of a magnetically active region depends on a complicated balance between plasma heating, radiative cooling and the highly anisotropic thermal conduction guided by the magnetic field. It is also affected by plasma convection if siphon flows exist as a result of dynamic imbalance of pressure gradient, gravity and magnetic force. The difficulty of the numerical simulation lies in the wide ranges of density and temperature, separated by a narrow transition region with enormous gradients. Early studies of 1-D models (Mok et. al. 1991) provide a guidance on the thermal structure along individual field lines. A slightly more advanced 2-D model (Mok and Van Hoven 1993) produces a differential emission measure that is remarkably consistent with observations on the quiet sun. Active regions, however, require a 3-D model. We have implemented the necessary thermodynamics into our 3-D MHD code for this study. By starting with a magnetogram of an active region, we first establish an overlying magnetic structure. We then compute the thermal structure in the atmosphere. One of the most poorly understood physical processes in the energy balance is the plasma heating. We have computed the thermal structure based on various heating models and will compare their resulting emission measures. Mok, Schnack, and Van Hoven, 1991, Solar Phys. 132, 95. Mok and Van Hoven, 1993, Solar Phys. 146, 5. Work supported by the Sun Earth Connection Theory Program of NASA. Title: Coronal Sunspot Magnetic Fields: Extrapolation vs. Direct Observation Authors: Leka, K. D.; White, S.; Mikic, Z.; Lee, J. Bibcode: 2001AGUSM..SH31D03L Altcode: Direct observations of the coronal magnetic field strength is presently only available using radio wavelengths. It is, however, common to infer the morphology of coronal magnetic fields by extrapolating in height from observations of photospheric magnetic fields. Both methods have sources of uncertainty, and neither presently results in the quantitative coronal vector magnetic field measurements required to understand coronal dynamics. In this paper we combine radio (VLA) observations of a region containing a large spot with simultaneous highly accurate photospheric vector magnetic field measurements obtained with the NSO/HAO Advanced Stokes Polarimeter and investigate the coronal response to changes in the photospheric magnetic field as NOAA AR8535 (May 1999) crossed the solar disk. Title: Including the Transition Region in Models of the Large-Scale Solar Corona Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Linker, Jon A.; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 2001ApJ...546..542L Altcode: In traditional multidimensional models of the solar corona, the boundary of the calculation closest to the solar surface is placed well into the corona (at temperatures of 1-2×106 K). We describe a large-scale MHD model that includes the transition region in the calculation. In this model, we simulate the solar atmosphere from the top of the chromosphere (at 20,000 K), through the transition region, into the corona, and extending out into the inner heliosphere. Our model includes parallel thermal conduction, coronal heating, and radiation losses in the energy equation. For simplicity, we describe a two-dimensional (axisymmetric) implementation of our model. This model enables us to study the large-scale structure of the transition region. In particular, we contrast the variation of the structure of the transition region underneath a closed magnetic arcade with that in an open-field region. We discuss how the inclusion of the transition region and upper chromosphere into the model modifies the time constants. We compare our results with a model in which the calculation is started near the top of the transition region (at 500,000 K) using a ``radiative energy balance'' condition, and we find that the two models agree well in open-field regions and for long loops. However, a model that includes the transition region is required to properly model short loops in closed-field regions. Title: Measurements of the solar wind over a wide range of heliocentric distances - a comparison of results from the first three Whole Sun Months Authors: Breen, A. R.; Thompson, B. J.; Kojima, M.; Biesecker, D. A.; Canals, A.; Fallows, R. A.; Linker, J. A.; Lazarus, A. J.; Lecinski, A.; Mikic, Z.; Moran, P. J.; Williams, P. J. S. Bibcode: 2000JASTP..62.1527B Altcode: 2000JATP...62.1527B Co-ordinated observations of the Sun and inner heliosphere using a large number of space- and ground-based instruments were carried out in August-September 1996, August 1998 and August-September 1999 as the first, second and third Whole Sun Months. These observations provided unprecedented cover of the Sun and inner heliosphere at solar minimum (1996) and during the rising phase of the new solar cycle (1998, 1999). In this paper we review the observations made during the three Whole Sun Months and consider the changes in the large-scale structure of the heliosphere seen over the four years. Title: Evidence for topological nonequilibrium in magnetic configurations Authors: Vainshtein, S. I.; Mikić, Z.; Rosner, R.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2000PhRvE..62.1245V Altcode: 2000astro.ph..3274V We use direct numerical simulations to study the evolution, or relaxation, of magnetic configurations to an equilibrium state. We use the full single-fluid equations of motion for a magnetized, nonresistive, but viscous fluid; and a Lagrangian approach is used to obtain exact solutions for the magnetic field. As a result, the topology of the magnetic field remains unchanged, which makes it possible to study the case of topological nonequilibrium. We find two cases for which such nonequilibrium appears, indicating that these configurations may develop singular current sheets. Title: An MHD Model of the Solar Wind from the Upper Chromosphere to 1 A.U. Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2000SPD....31.0234L Altcode: Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the corona and solar wind have been successful in reproducing many aspects of coronal structure, as evidenced by favorable comparisons with eclipse and coronagraph observations. However, the models do not accurately reproduce the solar wind velocity in interplanetary space. This deficiency of the models can be traced to the simple (polytropic) energy equation assumed. To model solar wind acceleration, a more sophisticated treatment of thermodynamic processes in the corona and solar wind is required. We have developed a computational model of the solar wind that includes thermal conduction parallel to the magnetic field, radiation, coronal heating, and Alfvén wave pressure. Thermal conduction in the model is collisionally dominated in the inner corona and smoothly becomes collisionless in the outer corona. We have performed a two-dimensional simulation of the solar wind in a computational domain that encompasses the upper chromosphere, the transition region, the corona, and the interplanetary space up to 1 A.U. We have obtained a steady-state solution that reproduces the observed pattern of speeds, densities, and particle fluxes of the fast polar wind and the slow equatorial wind. Title: An MHD model of the solar wind from the upper chromosphere to 1 A.U. Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 2000BAAS...32..817L Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Modeling the Corona During ``Whole Sun Month 3'' Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Riley, P.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2000SPD....31.0238M Altcode: 2000BAAS...32..817M The ``Whole Sun Month 3'' interval (Aug. -- Sept. 1999) affords an excellent opportunity to compare theroretical models with multiple coordinated observations of the Sun as it approaches solar maximum. This is the counterpart and continuation of the effort begun in the original Whole Sun Month interval (Aug. -- Sept. 1996) during solar minimum conditions. We will apply MHD models to calculate both active-region magnetic fields and global magnetic fields in the corona, and compare these with solar observations. Title: Modeling of the Magnetic Structure of the Heliosphere using MHD Simulations Authors: Riley, P.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2000SPD....31.0904R Altcode: 2000BAAS...32..841R We present the results of three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD simulations of the solar corona and heliosphere emphasizing the global structure of the interplanetary magnetic field. Such simulations provide a contextual basis with which to interpret a variety of disparate solar and interplanetary observations. We divide the modeling into two regions: The solar corona (1 -- 30 solar radii) and the heliosphere (30 solar radii -- 5 AU). The solar coronal component of the model is driven by measurements of the line-of-sight magnetic field in the photosphere, such as those produced by the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. Inputs to the heliospheric component of the model are derived from the output of the solar coronal model. Thus we are able to derive solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters at 1 AU and beyond, based soley on the observed photospheric magnetic field. We test the model for a variety of input conditions over the previous solar cycle by comparing spacecraft trajectories flown through the simulation with in situ observations made by WIND, ACE, and Ulysses. In particular, we compare the sector structure and magnetic field variations observed by the spacecraft with the simulation results. We also compare the morphology of the heliospheric current sheet predicted by these simulations with a ballistic extrapolation of the neutral line. These comparisons suggest that the simulations can reproduce the essential large-scale plasma and magnetic field features of the interplanetary medium under a variety of solar conditions. Title: Photospheric Magnetic Flux Changes as a Trigger for Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Linker, J. A.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Amari, T. Bibcode: 2000SPD....31.0281L Altcode: 2000BAAS...32..825L Eruptive solar phenomena, such as coronal mass ejections, are believed to be initiated by the release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field. Nonpotential magnetic field structures with significant amounts of free magnetic energy are known to exist in the corona. However, the mechanism(s) by which this energy is released are not well understood. Previously, we have shown that the emergence of new magnetic flux can lead to disruption of a helmet streamer, with liberation of a significant fraction of the stored magnetic energy. Specifically, eruption can be triggered when magnetic flux of opposite polarity emerges near the neutral line, canceling some of the ambient flux. Prior to eruption, a stable flux rope forms, which is a candidate magnetic structure for prominence support. In this paper, we will describe how other changes to the photospheric magnetic flux can lead to essentialy the same eruptive process, and we will discuss the relationship of these changes to flux reduction. Using full thermodynamic MHD simulations of global coronal structure, we will also show that chromospheric material can indeed be trapped in flux rope structures and lifted against the solar gravity. Research supported by NASA. Title: Solar Wind and Magnetic field Observations During Whole Sun Months 2 and 3 Authors: Lazarus, A. J.; Szabo, A.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2000SPD....31.0240L Altcode: 2000BAAS...32..818L We present observations from the Wind spacecraft of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field made during the second and third Whole Sun Month periods (12-25 Aug, 1998, CR1939 and 18 Aug-14 Sept, 1999, CR1953 ). We compare those measurements (extrapolated to the solar surface) with synoptic charts of the photospheric magnetic field made from the Wilcox Solar Observatory. In contrast to the clear coronal hole structures seen during the first Whole Sun Month (CR1913), we see multiple sources of higher speed wind during the approach to solar maximum. Title: Effects on Magnetic Structures by Disrupting Plasma Flows and Surface Magnetic Fields Authors: Mok, Y.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 2000SPD....31.0151M Altcode: 2000BAAS...32..810M We have studied the dynamic evolution of current carrying magnetic structures responding to temporal changes of plasma flows and magnetic-field strength on the solar surface. These non-potential structures can be formed by a variety of mechanisms, such as plasma flows that twist the initially potential field and flux emergence. A commonly seen example is an arcade field with shear plasma motions at the footpoints of the field lines that result in a narrow current layer directly above the neutral line. We have found that magnetic tearing and possibly eruption of the structure can take place if there is a sudden change in surface plasma flows or magnetic field strength. This simple mechanism can be used as a model for some of the violent events in the corona. Title: The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 2000STIN...0034000M Altcode: This report covers technical progress during the third year of the NASA Space Physics Theory contract "The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona," between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period June 16, 1998 to August 15, 1999. This is also the final report for this contract. Under this contract SAIC, the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), have conducted research into theoretical modeling of active regions, the solar corona, and the inner heliosphere, using the MHD model. During the three-year duration of this contract we have published 49 articles in the scientific literature. These publications are listed in Section 3 of this report. In the Appendix we have attached reprints of selected articles. We summarize our progress during the third year of the contract. Full descriptions of our work can be found in the cited publications, a few of which are attached to this report. Title: A Twisted Flux Rope Model for Coronal Mass Ejections and Two-Ribbon Flares Authors: Amari, T.; Luciani, J. F.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 2000ApJ...529L..49A Altcode: We present a new approach to the theory of large-scale solar eruptive phenomena such as coronal mass ejections and two-ribbon flares, in which twisted flux tubes play a crucial role. We show that it is possible to create a highly nonlinear three-dimensional force-free configuration consisting of a twisted magnetic flux rope representing the magnetic structure of a prominence (surrounded by an overlaying, almost potential, arcade) and exhibiting an S-shaped structure, as observed in soft X-ray sigmoid structures. We also show that this magnetic configuration cannot stay in equilibrium and that a considerable amount of magnetic energy is released during its disruption. Unlike most previous models, the amount of magnetic energy stored in the configuration prior to its disruption is so large that it may become comparable to the energy of the open field. Title: Interplanetary Scintillation Measurements of the Solar Wind Above Low-Latitude Coronal Holes Authors: Breen, A. R.; Moran, P. J.; Williams, P. J. S.; Lecinski, A.; Thompson, B. J.; Harra-Murnion, L. K.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 2000AdSpR..26..789B Altcode: Observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) made using the EISCAT facility provide accurate measurements of solar wind velocity between 15 and 120 solar radii. In this paper we present observations of the solar wind at low latitudes made between 1994 and 1997. Of 178 observations of the solar wind at low heliographic latitudes, 112 showed evidence of flow velocities significantly faster than the normal slow wind across a portion of the ray-path. In all cases, these enhanced flow speeds were clearly associated with coronal holes extending towards or across the heliographic equator. Fast flow from very close to the heliographic equator is clearly associated with equator-crossing coronal holes in all cases, suggesting that discrete streams of fast wind observed at low latitudes originate exclusively in coronal holes Title: Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona During the 11 August 1999 Total Solar Eclipse Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Riley, P.; Linello, R. Bibcode: 2000ASPC..205..162M Altcode: 2000ltse.conf..162M We describe the application of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to the prediction of the structure of the corona during the total solar eclipse of 11 August 1999. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic field as a boundary condition. This model makes it possible to determine the large-scale structure of the magnetic field in the corona, as well as the distribution of the solar wind velocity, plasma density, and temperature. The density was used to predict the plane-of-sky polarization brightness prior to the eclipse. The prediction is compared with an eclipse image taken in Turkey. Title: Energetic Particle Signatures of a Corotating Interaction Region from a High Latitude Coronal Hole: SOHO, Wind and Ulysses Observations Authors: Posner, A.; Bothmer, V.; Kunow, H.; Gosling, J. T.; Heber, B.; Lazarus, A. J.; Linker, J. A.; Marsden, R. G.; Mikić, Z.; Müller-Mellin, R.; Sanderson, T. R.; Szabo, A.; Thompson, B. J. Bibcode: 2000AdSpR..26..865P Altcode: In mid 1996 the Comprehensive Suprathermal and Energetic Particle Analyser (COSTEP) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane, detected recurrent periods of enhanced MeV ions in association with a corotating interaction region (CIR). Measurements of energetic ions from the Cosmic Ray and Solar Particle Instrument/Low Energy Telescope (COSPIN/LET) onboard Ulysses taken at 5 AU, at mid-northern heliographic latitudes, showed that Ulysses encountered recurrent particle events during the same time period. We used the solar wind speeds observed at both locations to estimate the cor-responding solar source longitudes of the particle events. These longitudes are related to warps of the Sun's large high latitude northern coronal hole boundaries observed by SOHO's Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT). The findings are supported by threedimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) calculations of the footpoint positions of the magnetic field lines at both spacecraft. The observations suggest that close to the Sun a superradial expansion of the fast solar wind from the Sun's high latitude northern coronal hole down to ecliptic latitudes is present Title: Solar Cycle Variations and the Large-Scale Structure of the Heliosphere: MHD Simulations Authors: Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R. Bibcode: 2000IAUJD...7E..12R Altcode: We present time-dependent, three-dimensional MHD computations of the large-scale structure of the solar corona and heliosphere (out to 5 AU). The primary input to the model is the observed line-of-sight component of the photospheric magnetic field. We investigate several time periods to illustrate variations in heliospheric structure during different phases of the solar cycle. In particular, we emphasize structure at the maximum of the solar activity cycle. We compare the results of the simulations with Ulysses and WIND in situ observations and interplanetary scintillation measurements. We find that the simulations can reproduce the overall large-scale features of the observations and we use the results to speculate on the nature of the high-latitude solar wind that Ulysses will likely encounter during its polar passes in 2000 and 2001. Our results suggest that, due to the presence of equatorial coronal holes, the ordered pattern of CIR tilts and their associated shocks, which was observed during Ulysses initial southward excursion in 1992, will likely disappear as Ulysses traverses toward higher latitudes. We anticipate that while Ulysses will continue to encounter fast streams, they will not persist for more than a fraction of a solar rotation. Finally, the simulations suggest that crossings of the heliospheric current sheet will persist up to approximately 70 degrees heliographic latitude. Title: Magnetohydrodynamics of the Solar Corona and the Transition Region Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999ESASP.448.1181L Altcode: 1999mfsp.conf.1181L; 1999ESPM....9.1181L No abstract at ADS Title: Active Region Emissions and Coronal Field Extrapolations Authors: Lee, J.; White, S. M.; Kundu, M. R.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999spro.proc...65L Altcode: With vector magnetographs set to fly on the Solar--B mission, the extrapolation of photospheric magnetic fields into the corona will be increasingly important. As the techniques of coronal field extrapolations grow more sophisticated, we require a more powerful means to test them and to make full use of the information they contain. Radio data can play an important role in testing extrapolation methods. In this paper, we discuss a new test of coronal field extrapolation using the concept of field line connectivity. The motivating idea is that temperature should be nearly uniform on a given magnetic field line due to the rapid transport of physical quantities along field lines in the corona. Optically--thick gyroresonance emission provides the temperature on a surface of known magnetic field strength in the corona. As a consequence, we may expect that radio intensities observed at different frequencies at points connected by field lines should show a good correlation. This suggests that a test of a magnetic field extrapolation model is whether the field--line connectivity it predicts shows such a correlation. A second application of field--line connectivity is to try to understand the relationship between physical quantities in the photosphere at the footpoints of magnetic field lines and the heating process in the corona on the same field lines. If a particular magnetic quantity, such as shear, plays a role in coronal heating then one expects the coronal extension of field lines passing through peaks in this quantity will show the highest coronal temperatures. This idea can be used to test candidate coronal heating mechanisms. We demonstrate these ideas using the combination of high--resolution VLA observations of a complex active region together with state--of--the--art nonlinear force--free field modeling. Title: An iterative method for the reconstructionbreak of the solar coronal magnetic field. I. Method for regular solutions Authors: Amari, T.; Boulmezaoud, T. Z.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999A&A...350.1051A Altcode: We present a method for reconstructing the coronal magnetic field, assumed to be in a non-linear force-free state, from its values given in the photosphere by vector magnetograph measurements. In this paper, that is the first of a series, we propose a method that solves the boundary value problem set in the functional space of regular solutions (i.e., that do not contain current sheets). This is an iterative method introduced by Grad and Rubin. It is associated with a well-posed boundary-value problem. We present some results obtained with this method on two exact solutions of the magnetostatic equations, used as theoretical magnetograms. Unlike some other extrapolations methods, that are associated with ill-posed boundary value problems, our method allows extrapolation to arbitrarily large heights, with no blowing up due to the presence in these methods of an intrinsic instability that makes errors growing up exponentially. Title: On the Role of Magnetic Flux Ropes for Helicity Injection and Ejection in the Solar Corona Authors: Amari, T.; Luciani, J. F.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999ASPC..184...70A Altcode: We present some work on the role of magnetic flux ropes for the structure and dynamics of the corona in term of its magnetic helicity content and redistribution for solar eruptive and non eruptive events. We show that is possible to construct 3D MHD solutions that represents the first type of models for prominence magnetic support as highly twisted non linear force-free type configuration. We also present some results for the disruption of twisted magnetic flux rope in non eruptive and eruptive confined events. Title: Mercury Sodium Atmosphere, Magnetosphere and Solar Wind Authors: Killen, R. M.; Giles, B.; Potter, A. E.; Jackson, B. V.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999DPS....31.1801K Altcode: Earth-based observations of Mercury's sodium atmosphere have revealed large-scale spatial variations and rapid temporal variations (e.g. Potter and Morgan, Adv. Space Res. 19, 1571, 1997; Potter, A.E. et al., Planet. Space. Sci., In press, 1999). We show how the observed brightness variations may be related to the topology of Mercury's magnetosphere in response to solar wind variations at Mercury's orbit. Using the Toffoletto-Hill magnetosphere model modified for Mercury (JGR 98, 1339, 1993), we have calculated the structure of the Hermean magnetosphere for November, 1997, corresponding to dates of our sodium images obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, Arizona. The sodium images are reduced to column abundance using a Chamberlain type atmosphere with optically thick radiative transfer. Inputs to the magnetosphere model are solar wind density and velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Solar wind density and velocity at the orbit of Mercury are inferred from heliospheric tomography using radio scintillation measurements (Jackson et al., Adv. Space Res. 20, 23, 1997; Kojima et al., JGR 103, 1981, 1998). The IMF at Mercury's position is obtained from a model of the inner heliosphere constrained with the solar magnetic field, in combination with density and temperature profiles at the sun's surface (Linker et al., JGR 104, 9809, 1999). We use the morphology of the magnetosphere along with solar wind parameters to infer the rates of ion sputtering of sodium. The total sodium column is the sum of ion-sputtered sodium and the more slowly varying sources, photon-stimulated desorption and meteoritic vaporization. We show that the variations in ion sputtering and subsequent loss via ioniation may be responsible for rapid changes in the observed brightness distribution in sodium emissions. Our goal is to show how solar activity and Mercury's sodium exosphere are related. Title: Mercury sodium atmosphere, magnetosphere and solar wind. Authors: Killen, R. M.; Giles, B.; Potter, A. E.; Jackson, B. V.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999BAAS...31.1102K Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: The Three-dimensional Coronal Magnetic Field during Whole Sun Month Authors: Gibson, S. E.; Biesecker, D.; Guhathakurta, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Lazarus, A. J.; Linker, J.; Mikic, Z.; Pisanko, Y.; Riley, P.; Steinberg, J.; Strachan, L.; Szabo, A.; Thompson, B. J.; Zhao, X. P. Bibcode: 1999ApJ...520..871G Altcode: Combining models and observations, we study the three-dimensional coronal magnetic field during a period of extensive coordinated solar observations and analysis known as the Whole Sun Month (WSM) campaign (1996 August 10-September 8). The two main goals of the WSM campaign are addressed in this paper, namely, (1) to use the field configuration to link coronal features observed by coronagraphs and imaging telescopes to solar wind speed variations observed in situ and (2) to study the role of the three-dimensional coronal magnetic field in coronal force balance. Specifically, we consider how the magnetic field connects the two fastest wind streams to the two regions that have been the main foci of the WSM analysis: the equatorial extension of the north coronal hole (known as the Elephant's Trunk) and the axisymmetric streamer belt region on the opposite side of the Sun. We then quantitatively compare the different model predictions of coronal plasma and solar wind properties with observations and consider the implications for coronal force balance and solar wind acceleration. Title: The Solar Origin of Corotating Interaction Regions and Their Formation in the Inner Heliosphere Authors: Balogh, A.; Bothmer, V.; Crooker, N. U.; Forsyth, R. J.; Gloeckler, G.; Hewish, A.; Hilchenbach, M.; Kallenbach, R.; Klecker, B.; Linker, J. A.; Lucek, E.; Mann, G.; Marsch, E.; Posner, A.; Richardson, I. G.; Schmidt, J. M.; Scholer, M.; Wang, Y. -M.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Aellig, M. R.; Bochsler, P.; Hefti, S.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1999SSRv...89..141B Altcode: Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) form as a consequence of the compression of the solar wind at the interface between fast speed streams and slow streams. Dynamic interaction of solar wind streams is a general feature of the heliospheric medium; when the sources of the solar wind streams are relatively stable, the interaction regions form a pattern which corotates with the Sun. The regions of origin of the high speed solar wind streams have been clearly identified as the coronal holes with their open magnetic field structures. The origin of the slow speed solar wind is less clear; slow streams may well originate from a range of coronal configurations adjacent to, or above magnetically closed structures. This article addresses the coronal origin of the stable pattern of solar wind streams which leads to the formation of CIRs. In particular, coronal models based on photospheric measurements are reviewed; we also examine the observations of kinematic and compositional solar wind features at 1 AU, their appearance in the stream interfaces (SIs) of CIRs, and their relationship to the structure of the solar surface and the inner corona; finally we summarise the Helios observations in the inner heliosphere of CIRs and their precursors to give a link between the optical observations on their solar origin and the in-situ plasma observations at 1 AU after their formation. The most important question that remains to be answered concerning the solar origin of CIRs is related to the origin and morphology of the slow solar wind. Title: Three-dimensional Solutions of Magnetohydrodynamic Equationsfor Prominence Magnetic Support: Twisted Magnetic Flux Rope Authors: Amari, T.; Luciani, J. F.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 1999ApJ...518L..57A Altcode: The search for a background magnetic configuration favorable for prominence support has been given a great deal of attention for several decades. The most recent theoretical studies seem to agree that a promising candidate for the support of the dense and cooler prominence material, which fulfills several of the theoretical and observational requirements such as twist, shear along the neutral line, and dips, is a magnetic flux rope. The most convincing models take an infinitely long periodic configuration that consists of a linear constant-α force-free magnetic field. These models, however, assume values of α that are close to its maximum possible value. In this Letter, we report our recent results, which show that it is indeed possible to produce a configuration that consists of a twisted magnetic flux tube embedded in an overlaying, almost potential, arcade such that high electric currents (and therefore values of α) are confined to the inner twisted magnetic flux rope. We present two MHD processes--corresponding to two different types of boundary conditions--that produce such a configuration. Our results show that the process associated variations of Bz at the photospheric level by applying an electric field involving diffusion is much more efficient for creating a structure with more twist and dips. Title: Interplanetary scintillation measurements of high-speed flow in the low-latitude solar wind Authors: Breen, A. R.; Biesecker, D.; Fallows, R. A.; Lecinski, A.; Mikic, Z.; Moran, P. J.; Williams, P. J. S. Bibcode: 1999AIPC..471..317B Altcode: 1999sowi.conf..317B Observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) made using the EISCAT facility provide accurate measurements of solar wind velocity between 15 and 120 solar radii (R). In this paper we present observations of the solar wind at low latitudes made between 1991 and 1998, with particular emphasis on flow from trans-equatorial coronal holes. Title: Eruption of Magnetic Structures in the Solar Corona Authors: Mok, Y.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. Bibcode: 1999AAS...194.1708M Altcode: 1999BAAS...31..854M Magnetic structures of various geometries, including loops and arcades, are present in the solar corona. Observations indicate that the magnetic field in some of these structures can be highly sheared, implying that a substantial amount of non-potential field energy is stored in the structure. If there is a physical mechanism that can induce a transition to a lower-energy state, the magnetic energy can be released into kinetic energy of plasma motions or thermal energy. We have studied the interactions between highly sheared structures (loops and arcades) and an emerging potential field structure by 3-D numerical simulations. It was found that the emerging structure can induce an MHD instability that leads to the release of magnetic energy into plasma kinetic energy at a rate near the ideal MHD time scale. A specific example is the eruption along the neutral line of a long, narrow, sheared arcade, which can be used to model a prominence eruption or a coronal mass ejection. This work was supported by NASA SPTP. Computational resource was provided by the San Diego Supercomputer Center through NSF. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the global solar corona Authors: Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Schnack, Dalton D.; Lionello, Roberto; Tarditi, Alfonso Bibcode: 1999PhPl....6.2217M Altcode: A three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the global solar corona is described. The model uses observed photospheric magnetic fields as a boundary condition. A version of the model with a polytropic energy equation is used to interpret solar observations, including eclipse images of the corona, Ulysses spacecraft measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field, and coronal hole boundaries from Kitt Peak He 10 830 Å maps and extreme ultraviolet images from the Solar Heliospheric Observatory. Observed magnetic fields are used as a boundary condition to model the evolution of the solar corona during the period February 1997-March 1998. A model with an improved energy equation and Alfvén waves that is better able to model the solar wind is also presented. Title: In-ecliptic CIR-associated energetic particle events and polar coronal hole structures: SOHO/COSTEP observations for the Whole Sun Month Campaign Authors: Posner, Arik; Bothmer, Volker; Thompson, Barbara J.; Kunow, Horst; Heber, Bernd; Müller-Mellin, Reinhold; Lazarus, Alan J.; Szabo, Adam; Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 1999JGR...104.9881P Altcode: The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), in halo orbit around the L1 Lagrangian point of the Sun-Earth system, combines a unique set of instruments for studies of the Sun and the heliosphere. SOHO's Comprehensive Suprathermal and Energetic Particle Analyser measures in situ particles in the energy range 44 keV/particle to above 53 MeV/nucleon. For the time period of the Whole Sun Month Campaign in mid 1996 we have identified recurrent energetic particle intensity increases in association with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the energy range <10 MeV. Solar wind measurements of the Wind spacecraft were used to estimate the corresponding magnetic source location in Carrington longitude for comparison of energetic particles with synoptic maps of the lower corona, derived from images of SOHO's Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope. The comparison reveals a close relationship of latitudinal extensions of polar coronal holes, situated in regions up to 40° away from the ecliptic, with CIR-associated in-ecliptic particle events. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the solar corona during Whole Sun Month Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.; Biesecker, D. A.; Forsyth, R. J.; Gibson, S. E.; Lazarus, A. J.; Lecinski, A.; Riley, P.; Szabo, A.; Thompson, B. J. Bibcode: 1999JGR...104.9809L Altcode: The Whole Sun Month campaign (August 10 to September 8, 1996) brought together a wide range of space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun and the interplanetary medium during solar minimum. The wealth of data collected provides a unique opportunity for testing coronal models. We develop a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the solar corona (from 1 to 30 solar radii) applicable to the WSM time period, using measurements of the photospheric magnetic field as boundary conditions for the calculation. We compare results from the computation with daily and synoptic white-light and emission images obtained from ground-based observations and the SOHO spacecraft and with solar wind measurements from the Ulysses and WIND spacecraft. The results from the MHD computation show good overall agreement with coronal and interplanetary structures, including the position and shape of the streamer belt, coronal hole boundaries, and the heliospheric current sheet. From the model, we can infer the source locations of solar wind properties measured in interplanetary space. We find that the slow solar wind typically maps back to near the coronal hole boundary, while the fast solar wind maps to regions deeper within the coronal holes. Quantitative disagreements between the MHD model and observations for individual features observed during Whole Sun Month give insights into possible improvements to the model. Title: Interplanetary scintillation measurements of the solar wind during Whole Sun Month: Comparisons with coronal and in situ observations Authors: Breen, A. R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Lazarus, A. J.; Thompson, B. J.; Biesecker, D. A.; Moran, P. J.; Varley, C. A.; Williams, P. J. S.; Lecinski, A. Bibcode: 1999JGR...104.9847B Altcode: Two-site observations of interplanetary scintillation using the EISCAT facility can provide measurements of solar wind velocity at any point in the heliosphere between 15 and 120 solar radii (R). In this paper we discuss a series of observations made as part of the Whole Sun Month campaign (August 10 to September 8 1996) and compare the results with coronal data and in-situ measurements made during the campaign. The results of the comparison revealed extremely good agreement between solar wind speeds measured by IPS at 16-73 R and in situ measurements at 213 R and beyond, both in the general morphology of the solar wind and in the absolute velocities observed. These results confirm that structures in the solar wind, originating in the corona, preserve their form out to 910 R or more. Observations of fast solar wind were always associated with coronal holes and slow wind with the bright corona. Velocities intermediate between normal fast and slow flow speeds are associated with interaction regions between fast and slow flow and are also found above the boundaries of coronal holes. Title: Initiation of Coronal Mass Ejections by Changes in Photospheric Flux Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 1999AAS...194.5906M Altcode: 1999BAAS...31..918M We investigate the effect of changes in photospheric magnetic fields on the stability of helmet streamers and active region arcades. Changes in the magnetic flux in the vicinity of the neutral line can lead to disruption, with liberation of a significant fraction of the stored magnetic energy. When the amount of emerged flux is below a threshold, a stable equilibrium with a filament results. When the threshold is exceeded, the configuration erupts and leaves the Sun with a substantial amount of kinetic energy. This mechanism is a promising trigger for launching CMEs. Title: MHD Modeling of the Solar Wind Including the Transition Region Authors: Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999AAS...194.1614L Altcode: 1999BAAS...31Q.852L The structure of the solar corona is dominated by the magnetic field. The MHD polytropic model based on observed photospheric fields captures many features of the large-scale corona. However the simplified energy equation in those models fails to reproduce the temperature structure of the corona and the observed contrast in speed between the fast and slow solar wind. We present some recent results obtained with our MHD model utilizing a more careful treatment of the thermodynamics. Our model includes thermal conduction parallel to the magnetic field, radiation, coronal heating, and Alfven wave pressure. Thermal conduction is collisionally dominated in the inner corona, where it is calculated with Spitzer's formula, and smoothly becomescollisionless in the outer corona. At the base of the corona we can either impose radiation balance or we can model the transition region directly. In our simulations we specify a magnetic flux distribution on the solar surface and integrate the time-dependent MHD equations to steady state. The resulting solutions can be tested against observed properties of the corona and of the solar wind. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic models of solar coronal magnetic fields. Authors: Amari, T.; Luciani, J. F.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1999PPCF...41..779A Altcode: The authors present some results concerning the possibility of determining the structure of solar active regions using measurements of the vector magnetic field on the Sun's surface as boundary conditions for the new numerical extrapolation codes. From these computations the main features of these configurations, shear and twist (which are particular forms of magnetic helicity), are then used as ingredients to define model problems and solved for the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) analysis of solar eruptive phenomena, in which ejection (or redistribution) of helicity occurs. Title: A Test for Coronal Magnetic Field Extrapolations Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo; White, Stephen M.; Kundu, Mukul R.; Mikić , Zoran; McClymont, A. N. Bibcode: 1999ApJ...510..413L Altcode: As models for the physical properties of the corona above solar active regions grow more sophisticated, we will require better means for testing them. In this paper we discuss and apply such a test to a magnetic field model for an active region. This test is based on the expectation that the temperatures at different points on a given magnetic field line should be well correlated because of the rapid transport of heat along field lines in the corona. We use radio observations of an active region to measure the temperatures on field lines as they cross two isogauss surfaces (at 430 and 750 G) in the corona. The field lines and isogauss surfaces are derived from a coronal magnetic field model obtained via a nonlinear force-free field extrapolation of a photospheric vector magnetogram; for comparison, we also investigate a potential-field extrapolation of the same magnetogram. In a region in which strongly sheared fields are present, the nonlinear force-free field model does indeed show a good correlation between the temperatures in the two surfaces at points on the same field line, while the potential-field model does not. This diagnostic acts both as a test of the magnetic field model as well as of the interpretation of the radio data, and we show how this test can also aid in understanding the radio data. Title: The Solar Origin of Corotating Interaction Regions and their Formation in the Inner Heliosphere Authors: Balogh, A.; Bothmer, V.; Crooker, N. U.; Forsyth, R. J.; Gloeckler, G.; Hewish, A.; Hilchenbach, M.; Kallenbach, R.; Klecker, B.; Linker, J. A.; Lucek, E.; Mann, G.; Marsch, E.; Posner, A.; Richardson, I. G.; Schmidt, J. M.; Scholer, M.; Wang, Y. -M.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.; Aellig, M. R.; Bochsler, P.; Hefti, S.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1999cir..book..141B Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1998APS..DPPD2I204M Altcode: The structure of the solar corona is determined to a large extent by the magnetic field. Unfortunately, it is not possible to measure the magnetic field in the corona (in general). To maximize the interpretation of solar observations it is therefore necessary to use theoretical models. By using a three-dimensional MHD model to describe the self-consistent interaction of magnetic, plasma, and gravity forces, including the effect of the solar wind, it is possible to determine the large-scale structure of the magnetic field in the corona and inner heliosphere, as well as the distribution of the solar wind velocity, plasma density, and temperature. The model can provide quantitative outputs that can be tested directly against observations, including coronagraph images, in situ solar wind and magnetic field measurements, heliospheric current sheet crossings, interplanetary scintillation measurements, and emissions in various radiation lines. The principal input to the model is the observed photospheric magnetic field. Comparisons between the model and eclipse observations, coronagraph observations, SOHO data, and Ulysses and WIND interplanetary plasma measurements will be presented. Research sponsored by NASA and NSF. Computations performed at NERSC and SDSC. Title: Sector boundary transformation by an open magnetic cloud Authors: Crooker, N. U.; McAllister, A. H.; Fitzenreiter, R. J.; Linker, J. A.; Larson, D. E.; Lepping, R. P.; Szabo, A.; Steinberg, J. T.; Lazarus, A. J.; Mikic, Z.; Lin, R. P. Bibcode: 1998JGR...10326859C Altcode: 1998JGR...103R6859C A magnetic cloud observed by the Wind spacecraft on February 8, 1995, was remarkable for its impact on the interplanetary sector structure. The magnetic field data imply that the cloud occurred in the middle of a sector and that the arrival of the following sector boundary on February 10 coincided with the arrival time predicted from the corresponding source surface map. The electron heat flux data, however, give incontrovertible evidence that instead the cloud brought the sector boundary, well ahead of the predicted arrival time. The electron heat flux data show little counterstreaming within the cloud, indicating predominantly open helical field lines. Under the assumption that the cloud originally had the form of a closed flux rope loop with legs rooted to the Sun, observational constraints dictate that the sector boundary was displaced not because it was pushed aside by the cloud but because reconnection in the leading leg opened field lines there, creating a topological change spanning 45° of heliographic longitude. The solar source of the cloud was deduced from an associated eruptive arcade event extending northeastward from an active region in Yohkoh soft X ray data on February 4. On February 8, the same active region was the source of impulsive energetic electron events observed at Wind during a brief counterstreaming interval, consistent with magnetic connection in the leading leg at that time. The cloud's helicity matches that predicted from the skew of the arcade fields in the February 4 X ray event, but the predicted alignment of the arcade and cloud axes was off by 35°. We use an MHD model with boundary conditions derived from solar magnetograms to illustrate the tilted arcade configuration in the corona that gave rise to the magnetic cloud and the lesser tilt of the heliospheric current sheet stemming from it. Title: Spatial structure of the solar wind and comparisons with solar data and models Authors: Neugebauer, M.; Forsyth, R. J.; Galvin, A. B.; Harvey, K. L.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Lazarus, A. J.; Lepping, R. P.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z.; Steinberg, J. T.; von Steiger, R.; Wang, Y. -M.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F. Bibcode: 1998JGR...10314587N Altcode: Data obtained by instruments on the Ulysses spacecraft during its rapid sweep through >90° of solar latitude, crossing the solar equator in early 1995, were combined with data obtained near Earth by the Wind spacecraft to study the spatial structure of the solar wind and to compare to different models of the interplanetary magnetic field derived from solar observations. Several different source-surface models matched the double sinusoidal structure of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) but with differences in latitude as great as 21°. The source-surface model that included an interplanetary current sheet gave poorer agreement with observed current-sheet crossings during this period than did the other source-surface models or an MHD model. The differences between the calculated and observed locations of the HCS were minimized when 22° of solar rotation was added to the constant-velocity travel time from the source surface to the spacecraft. The photospheric footpoints of the open field lines calculated from the models generally agreed with observations in the He 10,830 Å line of the locations of coronal holes with the exceptions that (1) in some places, open field lines originated outside the coronal hole boundaries and (2) the models show apparently closed-field regions just inside some coronal hole boundaries. The patterns of mismatches between coronal hole boundaries and the envelopes of open field lines persisted over at least three solar rotations. The highest-speed wind came from the polar coronal holes, with the wind originating deeper within the hole being faster than the wind coming from near the hole boundary. Intermediate and slow streams originated in smaller coronal holes at low latitudes and from open field regions just outside coronal hole boundaries. Although the HCS threaded regions of low speed, low helium abundance, high ionization temperature, and a high ratio of magnesium to oxygen densities (a surplus of an element with low first-ionization potential), there was a great deal of variation in these parameters from one place to another along the HCS. The gradient of speed with latitude varied from 14 to 28 kms-1deg-1. Title: Coronal Currents, Magnetic Fields, and Heating in a Solar Active Region Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo; McClymont, A. N.; Mikić, Zoran; White, Stephen M.; Kundu, Mukul R. Bibcode: 1998ApJ...501..853L Altcode: We compare microwave images of a solar active region with state-of-the-art fully nonlinear force-free extrapolations of the photospheric fields in order to study the link between coronal currents and heating of the corona. This extrapolation fully takes into account the nonuniform distribution of electric currents observed in the photosphere and its role in the coronal magnetic structure. We carry out the comparison for AR 6615, a complex region observed with the VLA on 1991 May 7. Under the assumption that the microwave emission is dominated by optically thick gyroresonance radiation, we may use the radio images to infer the temperature of the corona at different heights and locations. This is then compared with heating models based on the observed current distribution. We are able to reproduce the radio images remarkably well with a model in which temperature is structured along magnetic field lines, depends on the current on the field line, and increases with height in a manner similar to that inferred from static heated loop models. This result implies a direct link between electric currents and coronal heating. Title: Microwave Mode Coupling Above Active Regions as a Coronal Density Diagnostic Authors: Lee, Jeongwoo; White, Stephen M.; Kundu, M. R.; Mikić, Zoran; McClymont, A. N. Bibcode: 1998SoPh..180..193L Altcode: It is well recognized that the phenomenon of depolarization (the conversion of polarized radio emission into unpolarized emission) of microwaves over solar active regions can be used to infer the coronal electron density once the coronal magnetic field is known. In this paper we explore this technique using an active region for which we have excellent radio data showing depolarization at two frequencies, and for which we have an excellent magnetic field model which has been tested against observations. We show that this technique for obtaining coronal densities is very sensitive to a number of factors. When Cohen's (1960) theory where depolarization is due to magnetic field rotation alone is used, the result is particularly sensitive to the location of the surface on which the magnetic field is orthogonal to the line of sight. Depending on whether we take into account the presence of electric currents in the photosphere or not, their extrapolation into the corona can result in very different heights being deduced for the location of the depolarization strip, and this changes the density which is then deduced from the depolarization condition. Such extreme sensitivity to the magnetic field model requires that field extrapolations be able to accurately predict the polarity of magnetic fields up to coronal heights as high as ∼ 105 km in order to exploit depolarization as a density diagnostic. Title: The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1998saic.reptR....M Altcode: Under this contract SAIC, the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), have conducted research into theoretical modeling of active regions, the solar corona, and the inner heliosphere, using the MHD model. During the period covered by this report we have published 17 articles in the scientific literature. These publications are listed in Section 4 of this report. In the Appendix we have attached reprints of selected articles. Title: The Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1998nasa.reptT....M Altcode: This report covers technical progress during the first year of the NASA Space Physics Theory contract between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation. Under this contract SAIC, the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), have conducted research into theoretical modeling of active regions, the solar corona, and the inner heliosphere, using the MHD model. During the period covered by this report we have published 26 articles in the scientific literature. These publications are listed in Section 4 of this report. In the Appendix we have attached reprints of selected articles. Title: Magnetohydrodynamics of solar coronal plasmas in cylindrical geometry. Authors: Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1998JCoPh.140..172L Altcode: The authors describe a three-dimensional algorithm for the advancement of the resistive MHD equations in cylindrical geometry with line-tied boundary conditions. This code has been developed to simulate the behavior of solar coronal plasmas. Title: Nonlinear Magnetohydrodynamic Evolution of Line-tied Coronal Loops Authors: Lionello, Roberto; Velli, Marco; Einaudi, Giorgio; Mikić, Zoran Bibcode: 1998ApJ...494..840L Altcode: Simulations of the nonlinear evolution of the m = 1 kink mode in magnetic flux tubes with line-tying boundary conditions are presented. The initial structure of the flux tube is intended to model a solar coronal loop that either has evolved quasi-statically through sequences of equilibria with increasing twist due to the application of localized photospheric vortex flows or has emerged with a net current through the photosphere. It is well known that when the twist exceeds a critical value that depends on its radial profile and on the loop length, the loop becomes kink unstable. The nonlinear evolution of the instability is followed using a three-dimensional MHD code in cylindrical geometry, in different types of magnetic field configurations, with the common property that the current is confined within the same radius, so that the magnetic field is potential in the external regions. The differences reside in the net axial current carried by the structure, ranging from a vanishing current (corresponding to an outer axial potential field) to a high current (corresponding to an outer almost azimuthal potential field). It is shown that, during the nonlinear phase of the instability, loops develop current sheets and, consequently, their evolution becomes resistive with the occurrence of magnetic reconnection. The dependence of the topology of the currents at saturation on the initial magnetic structure, the details of the reconnection phenomenon, and the resistive dissipation mechanism are examined. Finally, the impact of the results on the understanding of coronal activity is discussed. Title: The Emergence of Current-Carrying Magnetic Loops into the Solar Corona Authors: Mok, Y.; Van Hoven, G.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1997ApJ...490L.107M Altcode: The mechanism of the dynamic emergence of current-carrying magnetic loops into the corona is examined by three-dimensional MHD simulations. By simultaneously modeling the spacetime profiles of the normal components of the emerging magnetic field and current density on the photosphere, we demonstrate that this process can qualitatively reproduce observations that show the emergence of a helically twisted magnetic structure with a suitable field-current combination. The flux-tube structure rises into the initially nearly field-free corona and gradually relaxes into a nearly force-free, steady state, magnetic loop. Title: Reconstructing the Solar Coronal Magnetic Field as a Force-Free Magnetic Field Authors: Amari, T.; Aly, J. J.; Luciani, J. F.; Boulmezaoud, T. Z.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1997SoPh..174..129A Altcode: We present some preliminary results on different mathematical problems encountered in attempts to reconstruct the coronal magnetic field, assumed to be in a force-free state, from its values in the photosphere. We discuss the formulations associated with these problems, and some new numerical methods that can be used to get their approximate solutions. Both the linear constant-α and the nonlinear cases are considered. We also discuss the possible use of dynamical 3D MHD codes to construct approximate solutions of the equilibrium force-free equations, which are needed for testing numerical extrapolation schemes. Title: Reconstruction of the Three-Dimensional Coronal Magnetic Field Authors: Jiao, Litao; McClymont, A. N.; MikiĆ, Z. Bibcode: 1997SoPh..174..311J Altcode: Studies of solar flares indicate that the mechanism of flares is magnetic in character and that the coronal magnetic field is a key to understanding solar high-energy phenomena. In our ongoing research we are conducting a systematic study of a large database of observations which includes both coronal structure (from the Soft X-ray Telescope on the Yohkoh spacecraft) and photospheric vector magnetic fields (from the Haleakala Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory). We compare the three-dimensional nonlinear force-free coronal magnetic field, computed from photospheric boundary data, to images of coronal structure. In this paper we outline our techniques and present results for active region AR 7220/7222. We show that the computed force-free coronal magnetic field agrees well with Yohkoh X-ray coronal loops, and we discuss the properties of the coronal magnetic field and the soft X-ray loops. Title: Problems and Progress in Computing Three-Dimensional Coronal Active Region Magnetic Fields from Boundary Data Authors: McClymont, A. N.; Jiao, L.; MikiĆ, Z. Bibcode: 1997SoPh..174..191M Altcode: An overview of the whole process of reconstructing the coronal magnetic field from boundary data measured at the photosphere is presented. We discuss the errors and uncertainties in the data and in the data reduction process. The problems include noise in the magnetograph measurements, uncertainties in the interpretation of polarization signals, the 180° ambiguity in the transverse field, and the fact that the photosphere is not force-free. Methods for computing the three-dimensional structure of coronal active region magnetic fields, under the force-free assumption, from these boundary data, are then discussed. The methods fall into three classes: the `extrapolation' technique, which seeks to integrate upwards from the photosphere using only local values at the boundary; the `current-field iteration' technique, which propagates currents measured at the boundary along field lines, then iteratively recomputes the magnetic field due to this current distribution; and the `evolutionary' technique, which simulates the evolution of the coronal field, under quasi-physical resistive magnetohydrodynamic equations, as currents injected at the boundary are driven towards the observed values. The extrapolation method is mathematically ill-posed, and must be heavily smoothed to avoid exponential divergence. It may be useful for tracing low-lying field lines, but appears incapable of reconstructing the magnetic field higher in the corona. The original formulation of the current-field iteration method had problems achieving convergence, but a recent reformulation appears promising. Evolutionary methods have been applied to several real datasets, with apparent success. Title: 3-D Simulation of Current-Carrying Magnetic Loops Emerging through the Photosphere Authors: Mok, Y.; van Hoven, G.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1997SPD....28.0246M Altcode: 1997BAAS...29..901M We have investigated the emergence of current-carrying magnetic loops into the solar corona. In previous works, we have denomstrated that a magnetic loop in the corona can be formed by twisting the field lines of an existing, in situ, bipolar potential field structure in the corona by plasma convections. This action induces an electric current, primarily in the toroidal direction, resulting in a magnetic loop with helical field lines (Van Hoven et al. 1995). In the present work, we show that a current-carrying magnetic flux rope emerges directly through the solar surface from underneath the photosphere into an almost field-free corona. This process involves a simultaneous injection of both toroidal magnetic field and toroidal electric current into the corona from the surface. By specifying the space-time profiles of the normal components of the emerging magnetic field and the current density at the base (photosphere), which can be obtained from observations, our simulations show that a current-carrying flux rope emerges from the surface as if it were driven by buoyancy from under the photosphere. The flux rope rises into the corona and gradually relaxes to a near force-free state. Multiple-loop interactions will also be discussed. * Work supported, in part, by NASA SPT, NSF ATM and AFPL; computational resources provided by NSF and UCI at SDSC, and by DOE at NERSC. Van Hoven, G., Mok, Y. and Mikic, Z., Ap.J. 1995, 440, L105. Title: Currents, Magnetic Fields and Heating in a Solar Active Region Authors: Lee, J.; McClymont, A. N.; Mikic, Z.; White, S. M.; Kundu, M. R. Bibcode: 1997SPD....28.1602L Altcode: 1997BAAS...29R.920L We have compared high-quality microwave images of the radio emission from the corona above an active region with state-of-the-art nonlinear force-free extrapolations of the photospheric magnetic field. The radio images, which are dominated by the opacity provided by the coronal magnetic fields, show excess magnetic field in locations consistent with the expected location of coronal currents. We test the hypothesis that the degree of heating on a given coronal magnetic flux tube is related to the current flowing through it by comparing model radio brightness distributions at different frequencies with the actual observations. In the model we assume that temperature is distributed along the field lines according to quasi-static loop models, and that there is effectively no diffusion across the field lines. This coronal heating model is able to reproduce the radio brightness distributions remarkably well. Title: Mapping the Magnetic Structure of the Corona During the ULYSSES Fast-Latitude Scan Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1997SPD....28.0601L Altcode: 1997BAAS...29..909L The coronal magnetic field defines the large-scale structure of the solar corona, the position of the heliospheric current sheet, and the regions of fast and slow solar wind. To understand the structure of the solar corona and inner heliophere, we must relate observations of the large-scale magnetic field at the photosphere to coronal and interplanetary observations. Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona show great promise in accurately mapping the photospheric magnetic field outwards from the Sun. Data from February--April, 1995 (Carrington rotations 1892-1894) provide an opportunity to test this capability, as the Ulysses spacecraft traversed a wide range of heliographic latitudes, and, at the same time, the Mauna Loa Coronameter made white-light observations of the inner corona. We compare results from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona during this time period with Mauna Loa data. By ``flying'' the Ulysses spacecraft trajectory through the model data, we produce simulated traces of the magnetic field for the Ulysses fast-latitude scan and directly compare these results with Ulysses observations. Title: Reconstruction of the Three-Dimensional Coronal Magnetic Field Authors: Jiao, Litao; McClymont, Alexander N.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1997SPD....28.0149J Altcode: 1997BAAS...29..888J Our analysis of active region AR7220/7222 has revealed some remarkable features of the solar coronal magnetic field: The region of bright X-ray loops is bounded by separatrix surfaces and restricted to regions of short field lines. Surrounding areas conspicuously lacking in soft X-ray emission are connected by long field lines to distant opposite polarity. The force-free field lines align well with observed coronal loops and agree better than potential field lines do. The footpoints of the brightest set of loops lie in a photospheric flux tube which has a very distinct sheath of return current. Furthermore, the bright loops appear to have both ends rooted in quite strong magnetic field (~ 500 G). The separatrix surfaces do not seem to contribute to heating of the loops; the lengths of the field lines and field strength at the footpoints seem to be the most significant factors. These findings stimulate us to investigate the physics of loop heating in other active regions. We reconstruct the coronal magnetic field of AR6919 from a series of three magnetograms which span the 1991 November 15 flare event. We also compare coronal fields of AR6919 computed from two kinds of boundary conditions: one with alpha specified everywhere, the other with alpha specified only over one polarity. We expand our study of loop heating by computing loop brightnesses based on heating fluxes dependent on the footpoint magnetic field strength, apply the coronal loop scaling law to determine temperature and density, and map these onto the computed field lines. We compute the X-ray flux and integrate along the line-of-sight to obtain two-dimensional images. Title: Determination of Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1997saic.rept.....M Altcode: During the course of the present contract we developed an 'evolutionary technique' for the determination of force-free coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograph observations. The method can successfully generate nonlinear force- free fields (with non-constant-a) that match vector magnetograms. We demonstrated that it is possible to determine coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, and we applied it to vector magnetograms of active regions. We have also studied theoretical models of coronal fields that lead to disruptions. Specifically, we have demonstrated that the determination of force-free fields from exact boundary data is a well-posed mathematical problem, by verifying that the computed coronal field agrees with an analytic force-free field when boundary data for the analytic field are used; demonstrated that it is possible to determine active-region coronal magnetic fields from photospheric measurements, by computing the coronal field above active region 5747 on 20 October 1989, AR6919 on 15 November 1991, and AR7260 on 18 August 1992, from data taken with the Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory, University of Hawaii; started to analyze active region 7201 on 19 June 1992 using measurements made with the Advanced Stokes Polarimeter at NSO/Sac Peak; investigated the effects of imperfections in the photospheric data on the computed coronal magnetic field; documented the coronal field structure of AR5747 and compared it to the morphology of footpoint emission in a flare, showing that the 'high- pressure' H-alpha footpoints are connected by coronal field lines; shown that the variation of magnetic field strength along current-carrying field lines is significantly different from the variation in a potential field, and that the resulting near-constant area of elementary flux tubes is consistent with observations; begun to develop realistic models of coronal fields which can be used to study flare trigger mechanisms; demonstrated that magnetic nonequilibrium can disrupt sheared coronal arcades, and that helmet streamers can disrupt, leading to coronal mass ejections. Our model has significantly extended the realism with which the coronal magnetic field can be inferred from actual observations. In a subsequent contract awarded by NASA, we have continued to apply and improve the evolutionary technique, to study the physical properties of active regions, and to develop theoretical models of magnetic fields. Title: A Spacecraft Going Behind the Sun Will Support SOHO Authors: Ruzmaikin, A.; Anderson, J. D.; Asmar, S.; Bird, M.; Cassiani, A.; Coles, W.; Feynman, J.; Harvey, J.; Harvey, K.; Hollweg, J.; Linker, K.; Mikic, Z.; Pätzold, M.; Smith, E. J. Bibcode: 1997ESASP.404..653R Altcode: 1997cswn.conf..653R No abstract at ADS Title: STEREO: a solar terrestrial event observer mission concept Authors: Socker, Dennis G.; Antiochos, S. K.; Brueckner, Guenter E.; Cook, John W.; Dere, Kenneth P.; Howard, Russell A.; Karpen, J. T.; Klimchuk, J. A.; Korendyke, Clarence M.; Michels, Donald J.; Moses, J. Daniel; Prinz, Dianne K.; Sheely, N. R.; Wu, Shi T.; Buffington, Andrew; Jackson, Bernard V.; Labonte, Barry; Lamy, Philippe L.; Rosenbauer, H.; Schwenn, Rainer; Burlaga, L.; Davila, Joseph M.; Davis, John M.; Goldstein, Barry; Harris, H.; Liewer, Paulett C.; Neugebauer, Marcia; Hildner, E.; Pizzo, Victor J.; Moulton, Norman E.; Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1996SPIE.2804...50S Altcode: A STEREO mission concept requiring only a single new spacecraft has been proposed. The mission would place the new spacecraft in a heliocentric orbit and well off the Sun- Earth line, where it can simultaneously view both the solar source of heliospheric disturbances and their propagation through the heliosphere all the way to the earth. Joint observations, utilizing the new spacecraft and existing solar spacecraft in earth orbit or L1 orbit would provide a stereographic data set. The new and unique aspect of this mission lies in the vantage point of the new spacecraft, which is far enough from Sun-Earth line to allow an entirely new way of studying the structure of the solar corona, the heliosphere and solar-terrestrial interactions. The mission science objectives have been selected to take maximum advantage of this new vantage point. They fall into two classes: those possible with the new spacecraft alone and those possible with joint measurements using the new and existing spacecraft. The instrument complement on the new spacecraft supporting the mission science objectives includes a soft x-ray imager, a coronagraph and a sun-earth imager. Telemetry rate appears to be the main performance determinant. The spacecraft could be launched with the new Med-Lite system. Title: The Viability of Ohmic Dissipation as a Coronal Heating Source Authors: Hendrix, D. L.; van Hoven, G.; Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1996ApJ...470.1192H Altcode: We have performed three-dimensional numerical simulations of the coronal heating model proposed by Parker (1972,1994) and have studied the steady state power balance between Poynting flux (P) and ohmic dissipation (Q). We demonstrate that this power balance exists and how P and Q scale with the driving velocity, granular coherence time, and loop length. We show that both P and Q compare well with the Markovian limit of the order-of-magnitude estimate given by Parker (1983). Our results further indicate a weak positive-exponent scaling with the Lundquist (conductivity) number. These results imply that line-tied photospheric convection can drive large enough current densities in the corona to make Parker's mechanism feasible. Title: The large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere Authors: Mikić, Zoran; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 1996AIPC..382..104M Altcode: The helmet streamers that are observed to dominate the structure of the inner corona are formed by the interaction of the solar wind with coronal magnetic fields. We have simulated this interaction in three dimensions using the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations. In order to create a realistic model, we use the magnetic field that is observed at the Sun's surface (deduced from daily Wilcox Solar Observatory magnetic field synoptic maps) as input, in combination with specified density and temperature profiles at the surface. A self-consistent 3D solar-wind solution is developed by integrating the MHD equations in time to steady state. Such solutions can reproduce the observed structures that are seen in coronagraph images and eclipse photographs of the corona. We compare the results obtained from our model with with an eclipse photograph of the corona on November 3, 1994. We also compare the position of the heliospheric current sheet with Ulysses observations during the period May-June 1993. Title: An MHD Model of the Solar Corona and Solar Wind Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A.; Colborn, J. A. Bibcode: 1996AAS...188.3307M Altcode: 1996BAAS...28..868M The structure of the heliosphere, especially the regions of fast and slow solar wind, are strongly influenced by coronal magnetic structure near the Sun. Favorable comparisons between three-dimensional MHD models of the solar corona and eclipse observations have shown that it is possible to model the structure of the large-scale solar corona. However, these models use a simplified energy equation, in which the plasma is assumed to obey an adiabatic energy equation with a reduced polytropic index. As a consequence, even though the predicted streamer structure in the corona agrees fairly well with eclipse observations, the predicted solar wind speed is not realistic. We have improved this model by adding important dynamic and thermodynamic effects, including the presence of a transition region, thermal conduction, radiation, coronal heating, and Alfven wave acceleration. We will present results obtained with this improved model on the structure of the solar corona and solar wind. Title: Magnetic Loop Emergence in the Solar Atmosphere * Authors: Mok, Y.; van Hoven, G.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1996AAS...188.3613M Altcode: 1996BAAS...28Q.875M We have studied various mechanisms that lead to the emergence of magnetic loop structures into the solar atmosphere. In addition to vortical photospheric motions that twist the existing coronal field into magnetic loops (poloidal field injection, Van Hoven et al. 1995), we examine the toroidal field/current injection mechanisms that directly bring magnetic flux to the surface from the plasma underneath the photosphere. By specifying a time-dependent emerging magnetic field at the base (photosphere), our simulations show that a potential field can be established in the corona. If electric current is also injected into the atmosphere through the base, with an appropriate relation to the magnetic field, a magnetic loop structure can rise through the surface into the corona, and gradually relax into a near force-free state. Multiple-loop interactions will also be discussed. * Work supported, in part, by NASA SPT, NSF ATM and AFPL; computational resources provided by NSF and UCI at SDSC, and by DOE at NERSC. Van Hoven, G., Mok, Y. and Mikic, Z., Ap.J. 1995, 440, L105. Title: Global Coronal Modeling and Space Weather Prediction Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran; Schnack, Dalton D. Bibcode: 1996ASPC...95..208L Altcode: 1996sdit.conf..208L No abstract at ADS Title: Modeling of Active-Region Magnetic Fields Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A.; Schnack, Dalton D. Bibcode: 1996ASPC...95..108M Altcode: 1996sdit.conf..108M No abstract at ADS Title: Surface Driven Evolution and Activity of Atmospheric Magnetic Structures Authors: van Hoven, G.; Mok, Y.; Hendrix, D. L.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1996mpsa.conf...51V Altcode: 1996IAUCo.153...51V No abstract at ADS Title: Large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere Authors: Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 1995sowi.conf...60M Altcode: The large-scale structure of the solar corona influences solar activity particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The helmet streamers that are observed to dominate the structure of the inner corona are formed by the interaction of the solar wind with coronal magnetic fields. We have simulated this interaction in three dimensions using the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations. In order to create a realistic model, we use the magnetic field that is observed at the Sun's surface (deduced from daily Wilcox Solar Observatory magnetograms) as input, in combination with specified density and temperature profiles at the surface. A self-consistent 3D solar-wind solution is developed by integrating the MHD equations in time to steady state. Such solutions can reproduce the observed structures that are seen in coronagraph images and eclipse photographs of the corona. This model allows us to accurately determine the position of the heliospheric current sheet. We will compare the results obtained from our model with Ulysses observations during the period May-June 1993, and with an eclipse photograph of the corona on November 3, 1994. Title: Coronal mass ejections and the evolution of the large-scale corona Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1995sowi.conf...60L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are dynamic, large-scale events in the solar corona that expel plasma and magnetic fields into the solar wind. The structure of the large-scale corona influences CME occurrence; for example, CMEs are most frequently observed to be disruptions of coronal or helmet streamer configurations on the Sun. We have investigated the evolution of the large-scale corona in the presence of differential rotation, using time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations in two and three dimensions. An equilibrium coronal configuration is first computed by superimposing a Parker solar wind flow on an initial potential field, the equations are integrated in time until a steady-state is reached. When differential rotation is introduced, we find that the configuration does not reach a steady state; the closed field regions (helmet streamers) disrupt recurrently, ejecting plasmoids into the solar wind. Our results suggest that differential rotation may be one of the mechanisms by which mass ejections are initiated. We will describe the evolution of the polarization brightness (pB) for the resulting configurations, as well as the propagation of the ejected plasmoids in the solar wind, and we will compare the effects of differential rotation with other possible initiation mechanisms, such as the emergence of new magnetic flux. Title: Coronal Loop Formation Resulting from Photospheric Convection Authors: van Hoven, G.; Mok, Y.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1995ApJ...440L.105V Altcode: We have demonstrated the dynamic formation of coronal magnetic loops in three dimensions as a result of horizontal vortex-like convection on the photosphere. Localized plasma motions twist bipolar magnetic field lines which are tied to the dense photosphere by high electrical conductivity. The twists propagate into the corona along the field and create a narrow quasi-toroidal region where the field lines interwind. At the same time, this tubeline region rises in altitude, expands in cross section, and distorts into a slight S shape before settling into an equilibrium state. The MHD stability of such line-tied magnetic loop structures is directly exhibited by this dynamic simulation. Title: Disruption of a Helmet Streamer by Photospheric Shear Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1995ApJ...438L..45L Altcode: Helmet streamers on the Sun have been observed to be the site of coronal mass ejections, dynamic events that eject coronal plasma and magnetic fields into the solar wind. We develop a two-dimensional (azimuthally symmetric) helmet streamer configuration by computing solutions of the time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, and we investigate the evolution of the configuration when photospheric shearing motions are imposed. We find that the configuration disrupts when a critical shear is exceeded, ejecting a plasmoid into the solar wind. The results are similar to the case of a sheared dipole magnetic field in a hydrostatic atmosphere (Mikic & Linker 1994). However, the presence of the outflowing solar wind makes the disruption significantly more energetic when a helmet streamer is sheared. Our resutls suggest that shearing of helmet streamers may initiate coronal mass ejections. Title: Modeling coronal evolution Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Zoran; Schack, Dalton D. Bibcode: 1994ESASP.373..249L Altcode: 1994soho....3..249L No abstract at ADS Title: Disruption of Coronal Magnetic Field Arcades Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Linker, Jon A. Bibcode: 1994ApJ...430..898M Altcode: The ideal and resistive properties of isolated large-scale coronal magnetic arcades are studied using axisymmetric solutions of the time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations in spherical geometry. We examine how flares and coronal mass ejections may be initiated by sudden disruptions of the magnetic field. The evolution of coronal arcades in response to applied shearing photospheric flows indicates that disruptive behavior can occur beyond a critical shear. The disruption can be traced to ideal MHD magnetic nonequilibrium. The magnetic field expands outward in a process that opens the field lines and produces a tangential discontinuity in the magnetic field. In the presence of plasma resistivity, the resulting current sheet is the site of rapid reconnection, leading to an impulsive release of magnetic energy, fast flows, and the ejection of a plasmoid. We relate these results to previous studies of force-free fields and to the properties of the open-field configuration. We show that the field lines in an arcade are forced open when the magnetic energy approaches (but is still below) the open-field energy, creating a partially open field in which most of the field lines extend away from the solar surface. Preliminary application of this model to helmet streamers indicates that it is relevant to the initiation of coronal mass ejections. Title: Thickness Variations along Coronal Loops Inferred from Vector Magnetograph Data Authors: McClymont, A. N.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1994ApJ...422..899M Altcode: It has been noted for many years that images of active region coronal loops seen in soft X-rays or extreme ultraviolet emission suggest a pipe-like appearance. Recently Klimchuk et el. have quantified this characteristic, finding for several loops observed by the Soft X-Ray Telescope on the Yohkoh spacecraft a thickness variation along their lengths of only 10%-20%. We demonstrate here that this observation is consistent with the characteristics of current-carrying field lines in a highly sheared active region. Vector magnetogram data on NOAA active region 5747, taken with the Stokes Polarimeter at Mees Solar Observatory on 1989 October 20, provided photospheric boundary conditions from which a force-free coronal magnetic field was computed. By tracing field lines, we show that magnetic loops which are highly sheared do not expand rapidly in height, as they would in a potential field. In addition, the expanding sections close to the footpoints of current-carrying twisted loops tend to be more vertical than in a potential field, so that when seen projected against the solar disk, the loops appear to terminate more abruptly. Consequently, current-carrying loops exhibit a near-uniform cross section with thickness variations of order 30% along their lengths. Title: Current Filaments Induced in a Resistive Corona by Continuous Footpoint Motions Authors: Schnack, Dalton D.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1994ASPC...68..180S Altcode: 1994sare.conf..180S No abstract at ADS Title: Deducing Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms Authors: Mikic, Zoran; McClymont, Alexander N. Bibcode: 1994ASPC...68..225M Altcode: 1994sare.conf..225M No abstract at ADS Title: Evolution and Disruption of Magnetic Arcades Authors: Linker, Jon A.; Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1994ASPC...68..251L Altcode: 1994sare.conf..251L No abstract at ADS Title: The Generation of Solar Magnetic Activity Authors: van Hoven, Gerard; Schnack, D. D.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J. A. Bibcode: 1994ASPC...68..211V Altcode: 1994sare.conf..211V No abstract at ADS Title: Determination of coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograms Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1993saic.rept.....M Altcode: This report covers technical progress during the second year of the contract entitled 'Determination of Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms,' NASW-4728, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period January 1, 1993 to December 31, 1993. Under this contract SAIC has conducted research into the determination of coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograms, including the development and application of algorithms to determine force-free coronal fields above selected observations of active regions. The contract began on June 30, 1992 and has a completion date of December 31, 1994. This contract is a continuation of work started in a previous contract, NASW-4571, which covered the period November 15, 1990 to December 14, 1991. During this second year we have concentrated on studying additional active regions and in using the estimated coronal magnetic fields to compare to coronal features inferred from observations. Title: The Coronal Magnetic Field of AR6919 on 1991 November 15 Authors: McClymont, A. N.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1993BAAS...25.1214M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Eruption of Large-Scale Coronal Magnetic Fields Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1993BAAS...25.1204L Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Realistic Three-Dimensional Models of Active Region Magnetic Fields Authors: Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1993BAAS...25Q1218M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Current Filaments Induced in a Resistive Corona by Continuous Footpoint Motions Authors: Schnack, D. D.; Mikic, Z. Bibcode: 1993BAAS...25Q1212S Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Determination of coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograms Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1992saic.reptQ....M Altcode: The determination of coronal magnetic fields from vector magnetograms, including the development and application of algorithms to determine force-free coronal fields above selected observations of active regions is studied. Two additional active regions were selected and analyzed. The restriction of periodicity in the 3-D code which is used to determine the coronal field was removed giving the new code variable mesh spacing and is thus able to provide a more realistic description of coronal fields. The NOAA active region AR5747 of 20 Oct. 1989 was studied. A brief account of progress during the research performed is reported. Title: Coronal Heating Induced by Footpoint Motions Authors: Schnack, D. D.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1992AAS...180.0509S Altcode: 1992BAAS...24..734S No abstract at ADS Title: Properties of Coronal Magnetic Fields Calculated from Vector Magnetograms Authors: Mikić, Z.; McClymont, A. N. Bibcode: 1992AAS...180.1204M Altcode: 1992BAAS...24..748M No abstract at ADS Title: Evolution of Large-Scale Coronal Arcades Authors: Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1992AAS...180.0504L Altcode: 1992BAAS...24..733L No abstract at ADS Title: Determination of the coronal magnetic field from vector magnetograph data Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1991saic.rept.....M Altcode: A new algorithm was developed, tested, and applied to determine coronal magnetic fields above solar active regions. The coronal field above NOAA active region AR5747 was successfully estimated on 20 Oct. 1989 from data taken at the Mees Solar Observatory of the Univ. of Hawaii. It was shown that observational data can be used to obtain realistic estimates of coronal magnetic fields. The model has significantly extended the realism with which the coronal magnetic field can be inferred from observations. The understanding of coronal phenomena will be greatly advanced by a reliable technique, such as the one presented, for deducing the detailed spatial structure of the coronal field. The payoff from major current and proposed NASA observational efforts is heavily dependent on the success with which the coronal field can be inferred from vector magnetograms. In particular, the present inability to reliably obtain the coronal field has been a major obstacle to the theoretical advancement of solar flare theory and prediction. The results have shown that the evolutional algorithm can be used to estimate coronal magnetic fields. Title: Three-Dimensional Stability of a Model Sunspot Field Authors: Schnack, D. D.; Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1991BAAS...23R1036S Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Calculation of Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Fields from Vector Magnetograms Authors: Mikić, Z. Bibcode: 1991BAAS...23.1032M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Dynamical Evolution of Twisted Magnetic Flux Tubes. I. Equilibrium and Linear Stability Authors: Mikic, Zoran; Schnack, Dalton D.; van Hoven, Gerard Bibcode: 1990ApJ...361..690M Altcode: The three-dimensional dynamical evolution of twisted magnetic flux tubes is studied using a time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. The flux tubes are intended to model solar coronal loops, and include the stabilizing effect of photospheric line tying. The model permits the complete evolution of flux tubes to be followed self-consistently, including the formation, equilibrium, linear instability, and nonlinear behavior. Starting from an initial uniform background magnetic field, a twisted flux tube is created by the application of slow, localized photospheric vortex flows. The flux tube evolves quasi-statically through sequences of equilibria with increasing twist, until it becomes linearly unstable to an ideal MHD kink mode. In this paper, the equilibrium properties and the linear stability behavior are discussed. The application of the method to the uniform-twist, Gold-Hoyle field confirms the previous stability threshold for kink instability and provides estimates of the resulting growth rate. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the solar corona Authors: Mikic, Zoran Bibcode: 1990PhFlB...2.1450M Altcode: The ideal and resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model is used to examine the dynamics and structure of the solar corona. When the coronal magnetic field is deformed by photospheric flow it can evolve to states that become unstable to ideal MHD modes. The nonlinear evolution of these instabilities can lead to the generation of current sheets, field line reconnection, and energy release. The disruption of an arcade field and the kinking of coronal loops is described. The braiding of the large-scale coronal field by convective photospheric motions develops fine-scale structure in the magnetic field and leads to the development of intense current filaments. The resistive dissipation of these currents can provide an efficient coronal heating mechanism. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic simulation of coronal magnetic fields Authors: Schnack, D. D.; Mikić, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; van Hoven, G. Bibcode: 1990CoPhC..59...21S Altcode: The application of supercomputers and advanced numerical techniques to problems of coronal structure and dynamics is described. Numerical methods appropriate for the long time scale simulation of nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic systems are discussed. Three specific examples of the application of these techniques to the solar corona are given. These are magnetic energy storage and conversion, a model for steady coronal heating, and calculation of stable force-free equilibria from given boundary data, such as that obtained with a vector magnetograph. It is suggested that the continued application of these methods will result in substantial advances in the understanding of coronal dynamics and structure. Title: Creation of Current Filaments in the Solar Corona Authors: Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D.; van Hoven, G. Bibcode: 1989ApJ...338.1148M Altcode: It has been suggested that the solar corona is heated by the dissipation of electric currents. The low value of the resistivity requires the magnetic field to have structure at very small length scales if this mechanism is to work. In this paper it is demonstrated that the coronal magnetic field acquires small-scale structure through the braiding produced by smooth, randomly phased, photospheric flows. The current density develops a filamentary structure and grows exponentially in time. Nonlinear processes in the ideal magnetohydrodynamic equations produce a cascade effect, in which the structure introduced by the flow at large length scales is transferred to smaller scales. If this process continues down to the resistive dissipation length scale, it would provide an effective mechanism for coronal heating. Title: Calculation of the Coronal Magnetic Field from Vector Magnetograph Data Authors: Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1989BAAS...21..855M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Generation of fine-scale structure in the solar magnetic field. Authors: Mikič, Z.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1989tndm.conf..113M Altcode: The authors investigate the structure of the magnetic field by solving the 3D MHD equations numerically. They describe two realizations of footpoint motions which are characteristic of photospheric convection: spatially smooth flows with a random time behavior (characteristic of granulation flows), and coherent vortex flows which produce twisted flux tubes. Title: Dynamical Evolution of a Solar Coronal Magnetic Field Arcade Authors: Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1988ApJ...328..830M Altcode: Calculations of the long-term dynamical evolution of a solar coronal magnetic field arcade which is subjected to shearing photospheric flows are presented. The evolution is obtained by numerical solution of a subset of the resistive magnetohydrodynamic equations. For a simplified model of the bipolar magnetic field observed in the solar corona, it is found that photospheric flow produces a slow evolution of the magnetic field, with a buildup of magnetic energy. For certain photospheric shear profiles, the field configuration produced is linearly unstable to an ideal magnetohydrodynamic mode when the shear exceeds a critical value. The nonlinear evolution of this instability shows the spontaneous formation of current sheets. Reconnection of the magnetic field produces a rapid release of magnetic energy. The major fraction of the energy is dissipated resistively, while a small fraction is converted into kinetic energy of an ejected plasmoid. The relevance of these results to two-ribbon flares is discussed. Title: Creation of Current Filaments in the Solar Corona Authors: Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D.; van Hoven, G. Bibcode: 1988BAAS...20..682M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Ideal MHD stability of solar coronal arcades. Authors: Barnes, D. C.; Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1987BAAS...19.1121B Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Ideal MHD Stability of Solar Coronal Arcades Authors: Bames, D. C.; Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1987BAAS...19R1121B Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Nonlinear Dynamics of the Force-Free Coronal Arcade Field Due to Shear Flow Authors: Bekki, N.; Tajima, T.; Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1987BAAS...19Q1121B Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Dynamical Evolution of a Solar Coronal Arcade Authors: Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; Schnack, D. D.; Tajima, T.; Bekki, N. Bibcode: 1987BAAS...19..922M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Energy Buildup and Explosive Release in a Sheared Coronal Arcade Plasma* Authors: Tajima, T.; Bekki, N.; Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D.; Schnack, D. Bibcode: 1987BAAS...19..922T Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Magnetic Energy Storage and Conversion in Coronal Arcades and Loops Authors: Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; Schnack, D. D.; Steinolfson, R. S.; Tajima, T.; Zaidman, E. Bibcode: 1986BAAS...18Q1042M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Resistive Evolution of Coronal Arcades Authors: Mikic, Z.; Barnes, D. C.; Schnack, D. D.; Steinolfson, R. S.; Tajima, T. Bibcode: 1986BAAS...18..676M Altcode: No abstract at ADS Title: Dynamic Evolution of Coronal Magnetic Fields Authors: Tajima, T.; Steinolfson, R. S.; Barnes, D. C.; Mikic, Z.; Schnack, D. D. Bibcode: 1986BAAS...18..676T Altcode: No abstract at ADS